Week 3 NFL picks

I'm rushing this one up on Saturday night so its shelf life will be shorter than sushi, but I need to go on the record.

Last week: 8-8
YTD: 17-15

This week is full of smelly lines. Vegas is either going to win a lot or lose a lot on public teams this week. We know how that usually turns out. As Matt pointed out in the weekly pick the lines contest, all the interconference games aren't helping matters as there's few trends to base anything on.

Tennessee (+3) at NY Giants - A battle of two teams who have looked great one week and terrible the next. I'm going to chalk the Titans' stinker up to a vicious Pittsburgh defense. The Giants let Indy run all over them, and Chris Johnson is a lot better than the Colts' rushers. Pick: Tennessee

Buffalo (+14.5) at New England - I wouldn't touch this game for real money with a 2,000 foot pole. Buffalo is all kinds of stinky right now, but this is just one of those games that feels like something weird will happen for a cheap cover. The Patriots shouldn't be favored by this much, but I just can't trust the Bills to score more than 10 points. Pick: New England

Cleveland (+10.5) at Baltimore - Much like the Buffalo-New England game, I don't trust Baltimore. Their offense has been bad, scoring 10 points in each of the first 2 weeks. But Cleveland is being led by Seneca Wallace. This screams 20-3 Baltimore. Pick: Baltimore

Pittsburgh (-2.5) at Tampa Bay - Here's one of those weird lines I've been talking about. Why are the 2-0 Steelers only favored by less than a field goal? The public is going to be all over Pittsburgh here and Vegas knows it. But Josh Freeman > Charlie Batch/Byron Leftwich and Tampa is at home. Pick: Tampa Bay

Cincinnati (-3) at Carolina - Another fishy line. Cincinnati just took out a Super Bowl contender and only gives up a field goal to the Panthers (yes, we're completely and totally forgetting I made them my sleeper pick for 2010), starting rookie Jimmy Claussen at QB. I'm going to regret this one I think, but I can't trust the Panthers here. Pick: Cincinnati

Atlanta (+3) at New Orleans - Yet another weird one. But the Saints come in on a short week and really didn't deserve to beat San Francisco. The public should be all over New Orleans since they're the champs. New Orleans hasn't played very well this year, and one of these games they're going to get a wake-up call. I think this is the week. Pick: Atlanta

San Francisco (-3) at Kansas City - San Fran comes in on a short week while the Chiefs are 2-0 through a smoke and mirrors act. This is a classic 'when in doubt' take the points game, especially since the home team is getting points. Could KC be 3-0? I say yes. Pick: Kansas City

Detroit (+11.5) at Minnesota - This spread really shouldn't be more than a touchdown. But it's been increasing. Something is up on this one, and I think the Shaun Hill we all expect is going to come out one of these days, and let's not forget Detroit's rush defense isn't too good and the Vikings have Purple Jesus. Pick: Minnesota

Dallas (+3) at Houston - This line should be higher but Cowboy bias has it as a FG difference. Arian Foster ran circles around the Cowboys' D in the pre-season. I just don't trust the Cowboys right now, even if they desperately need this one. Pick: Houston

Washington (-4) at St. Louis - Exactly why is Washington favored to anyone on the road? Yeah, its the Rams. I guess. But Steven Jackson keeps this one close enough. Pick: St. Louis

Philadelphia (-2.5) at Jacksonville - Mike Vick is now the starter, meaning expectations are high. Everyone is on Philly here, so expect a big game from MoJo Drew. Pick: Jacksonville

Indianapolis (+5.5) at Denver - Why do I ever bet against Peyton Manning? Stupid, stupid, stupid. Let's not make that mistake again. Pick: Indianapolis.

San Diego (-4.5) over Seattle. - Yet another fishy line. This interconference schedule is messing with everyone. Which Seattle is the real one? The one that dominated the 49ers or the one that got killed by Denver. The Chargers are missing tons of players on offense due to holdouts, injuries or suspensions. Let's take the points. Pick: Seattle

Oakland (+4.5) at Arizona - I'll make this quick. I refuse to lay 4 points to any team with Derek Anderson at QB. Pick: Oakland

NY Jets (+1) at Miami - The Dolphins finally get their home opener after 2 road wins and take on the Jets coming off a comeback victory against the Patriots. I just like how Miami is getting things done right now. And I like betting against the Jets. Pick: Miami.

Green Bay (-3) at Chicago - I hate backing a very public team like the Packers, but this is just one of those games they need to win, on the road and in a tough environment, if they want to be taken seriously as a Super Bowl contender. And wasn't Chicago a 4-12 team coming into the year? Pick: Green Bay