Week 9 NFL picks

Last week: 10-3
YTD: 59-56-2

Did you go against me like I told you last week? No matter what I tell you to do, I can’t get it right. Back on the right side of .500 now, time to pick it up as we enter the 2nd half of the season. This should be an interesting week with a ton of big name road favorites, which usually means there are upsets to be had.

New Orleans (-7) at Carolina – This one has all the makings of a trap game for New Orleans, with a huge win over Pittsburgh as they enter the easy part of their schedule. Everyone (over 80% according to the consensus at Covers.com) has the Saints here. I have no good reason to do this other than my mantra ‘Vegas doesn’t give away free money.’ Pick: Carolina

San Diego (-3) at Houston – The oddsmakers really like the Chargers as this is their 3rd straight week of being a favorite to a team that has a much better record than them (though they won 1 and could have won the 2nd of those games). Going back to the same Vegas mantra. Pick: San Diego

NY Jets (-4.5) at Detroit – The spread is so low because the Lions manage to cover spreads every week (6-1 on the year). But I expect a bounce back game from the Jets’ offense. As for their defense, let’s not forget they held a very explosive Packers’ offense to only 9 points last week. If the Jets want to establish themselves as a contender, they need to put a good hurting on the pesky Lions. Pick: NY Jets

Miami (+5) at Baltimore – Another game in the Vegas zone (between 4 and 6 points, but not on either number). Baltimore had the bye week and I think everyone is onto the fact that Miami plays well on the road. But Baltimore has handled the Fish the last two years pretty handily, I don’t know why they can’t do it again. Pick: Baltimore

Arizona (+8.5) at Minnesota – Derek Anderson remembered he was Derek Anderson at the end of last week, but can he do it for a full game on the road? Minnesota enters the easy part of the schedule, and I expect this game to be full of faint praise for Brett Favre for gunslinging it up with a busted up chin. Pick: Minnesota

Tampa Bay (+8.5) at Atlanta – Both teams with a 5-2 record, playing in the same division, but almost a double digit spread? Everyone is on Tampa, but they seem to put up a stinker about every 3rd game or so, and I think they’re due for one here, as the spread here is too good to be true. Pick: Atlanta

New England (-5) at Cleveland – I don’t make the spreads. The best team in the NFL at 6-1 only gives 5 points to the lowly Browns? Cleveland is coming off the bye and plays well at home. I don’t know how, but I think they hang in this game. Pick: Cleveland

Chicago (-3) at Buffalo – The Bills have taken very good teams to overtime the last couple of weeks and now play the Bears off a bye week. Everyone is saying this will be Buffalo’s first win, but until they get one, I can’t bet on them to cover such a low spread. Pick: Chicago

NY Giants (-7) at Seattle – The Chaz Whitehurst era begins in Seattle, and this is not the team you want to start against for your first start. Seattle got rocked by 30 in Oakland last week where they were outgained by almost 400 yards. I can’t find any reason to take Seattle. Pick: NY Giants

Indianapolis (+2.5) at Philadelphia – Michael Vick and DeSean Jackson return off a bye week. Colts are banged up and played in the Monday night game. Everybody is on Indy. Every time I bet against Peyton Manning I get burned, but here goes. Pick: Philadelphia

Kansas City (+2) at Oakland – Can the Raiders continue to put up 500 yards a week? Of course not. The road team has dominated this matchup which is strange as both teams enjoy loud home field crowds. I love the under here as both teams have good running games that should chew up a lot of clock. I might be jinxing my team at a time they need a win but here goes.. Pick: Kansas City

Dallas (+8.5) at Green Bay – I hate Jon Kitna, but the Dallas defense is good enough to somehow keep the Cowboys in this one. They’ll be fired up for a night game in what might be their last meaningful game of the season. Pick: Dallas

Pittsburgh (-5) at Cincinnati – Here we have two teams whose QB’s stats are a little better than how they’ve played. Ben RKelly has been fumble prone while my documented hate for Carson Palmer is well documented on this barely read blog. I suspect a close game with a late cover on something like a Palmer interception. Pick: Pittsburgh