Last week: 6-6-1
YTD: 65-62-3
Carolina (+7) at Tampa Bay: Is there anything to like about this Carolina team? Really, anything? Carolina is the only team the Bucs have beaten by more than 7 though this season. Something fishy here I can’t put my finger on, maybe Carolina gets a return TD for a backdoor cover or something. Pick: Carolina
Detroit (+3) at Buffalo: With Matthew Stafford out again, everyone thinks this is the week the Bills finally win. They said the same thing last week against the Bears. And Shaun Hill can move the ball. I'm not going to try and be a hero and predict Buffalo’s first win on this one. Pick: Detroit
Houston (+1) at Jacksonville: Jacksonville off the bye (screw you and your bye week theories, Bill Simmons!), Houston fading fast. This one just seems too easy as Houston is the more public team. Pick: Jacksonville
Tennessee (-2) at Miami: Miami can’t win at home, and they have Chad Pennington coming in, so that means they can’t throw or run the ball now. Desperate move by Tony Sparano. Chris Johnson is due for a big game. Pick: Tennessee
Minnesota (-1) at Chicago: Speak what you will of Kansas City and its easy schedule, but at least they don’t luck into victories the way the Bears do. The Vikings seem to be united in their quest to throw Brad Childress under a bus (literally, not figuratively. They hate the guy.), but they are using it as a rallying cry. More Brett Favre heroic story telling! Pick: Minnesota
NY Jets (-3) at Cleveland: I’ll make it easy for you Rex Ryan. If you can’t figure out how to take apart Colt McCoy with your vaunted defense, you’re not really a Super Bowl contender. Pick: NY Jets
Cincinnati (+7) at Indianapolis: When you take away his weapons, Peyton Manning will play things tight and not take too many chances and do just enough to win. In this case, that means not covering the spread. And how is Terrell Owens the top rated fantasy receiver? That’s why they call it fantasy football, kids. Pick: Cincinnati
Kansas City (-1) at Denver: I hate the way the Chiefs are playing right now, but the Broncos are too much of a mess for me to take them. Pick: Kansas City
Dallas (+14) at NY Giants – Jason Garrett had the Cowboys wearing pads at practice this week. How revolutionary! It's like he invoked the spirit of Vince Lombardi and George Halas. All is well in Cowboys land! And why do I know Buck and Aikman end up doing this game over the far superior Seattle-Arizona battle for first place in the NFC West? East Coast bias, I tell ya. Pick: Dallas.
St. Louis (+6) at San Francisco – The Young Rams aren’t good enough on the road yet, even against Crazy Janitor Mike Singletary, who have played better than their record. Plus, a 49er victory puts all the teams in the division closer. And who doesn’t want to see a team with 6 wins get into the playoffs? Pick: San Francisco
Seattle (+3) at Arizona – You know how little faith I have in Charlie Whitehurst (I’m taking away the Chaz until further notice, you don’t deserve it Charlie) when I’m picking Derek Anderson over you. Pick: Arizona
New England (+4.5) over Pittsburgh – The two best coaches in the league (with apologies to Sean Payton) go at it here. This one just feels like it has to be a field goal game. And you know Belichick won’t stand for two losses in a row. Pick: New England
Philadelphia (-3) at Washington – Donovan McNabb already got his revenge on Philly earlier this season. It doesn’t happen again. Washington will fall off eventually and then maybe people will believe me that Mike Shanahan isn't a good coach any more. Pick: Philadelphia
Friday, November 12, 2010
Thursday, November 11, 2010
Random Thursday thoughts..
Some random Thursday thoughts before the weekend…
I like the Falcons (-1) tonight. They’re just so good at home (18-1 under Matty Ice), and these short weeks tend to favor the home teams as they don’t have to use up what little time there is to prepare on travelling. I also think both teams pound the run tonight because of the short week and you’re going to see the under hit pretty easy. Atlanta 17, Baltimore 13.
I haven’t been keeping up with my reviews on Dexter and Boardwalk Empire lately. Sorry if you were tuning in to read those, but Sunday-Monday nights are crowded with football and doing fatherly things with the toddler. Often times I don’t get these shows watched until the middle of the week and it seems pointless to keep going. I’ll try to give some thoughts on them when I get the chance, but don’t expect reviews. My quick thoughts on the last few episodes though as we head towards the end of the season for both shows:
I might be out on Boardwalk Empire next season. I love the grandeur of it all, with all the gorgeous 1920’s outfits and buildings and such. I love Nucky, and Steve Buscemi has proven he can carry this show. But there are just WAY too many fringe characters floating around who I don’t really care about. Anything with the FBI agent almost gets tuned out, and the same with Nucky’s brother. There was a lesbian scene last week and I still have no idea who the two participants were. (Side note: Thanks to HBO for all the gratuitous nudity in this show. It really makes up for all the lag time. Even the Scottish lady got naked Almost makes me want to go back to the 1920’s, it seems to be an epic time for nudity, which is weird since nobody could drink) But until they cut back and have only about 3-4 main characters, it will continue to be dizzying to watch this show. Especially since everyone is dressed alike. Can we at least get the characters some nameplates?
As for Dexter, it started off slow, but the last few episodes have been crazy and have me excited to see how it turns out. I was leery when they said there wouldn’t be a primary serial killer for Dexter to go after, but they’ve proven me wrong. Michael C. Hall seems totally re-energized this season and even the additions of Julia Stiles, Robocop and Angelina Jolie’s first husband haven’t slowed anything down. Finally, we’re seeing a dilemma for Quinn as he falls for Deb and isn’t sure how much further he wants to investigate Dexter, and he actually comes across as likeable. And they’ve focused less on Batista and LaGuerta, always a good thing. Though it is creepy watching Dexter and Lumen hang out in Dexter’s old house, especially the bathtub scene. I hope they don’t take the easy way out and have these two fall for each other. The uneasy partnership is paying off right now in terms of plot and I don’t think we need to mess with that.
How about those Miami Heat? Can we just call them The Big Two now and stop talking about Chris Bosh as part of the superstars? Seriously, 14 points and 5 boards a game? This guy is becoming another Antawn Jamison, a guy who piles up stats on bad teams but shrinks to the background when he plays with better players on better teams. Right now, I still like Boston in that conference as they have Garnett, Big Baby Davis and the O’Neals (plus Kendrick Perkins returning in February) to throw at a suspect Miami frontcourt.
Last, the great Dave Niehaus passed away last night. For those who don’t know, he was the play-by-play guy for the Seattle Mariners, and had been doing that job since the inception of the team in 1977. As somebody who watches around 100 Mariners games a season, this has meant hundreds upon hundreds hours the last few summers have been spent listening to this man. His way of storytelling would make you feel like he was part of your family, and when you spend that much time listening to somebody, he essentially becomes extended family. The Mariners and the baseball world lost a great one. I never understood how Philadelphia or Detroit or St. Louis fans felt when Harry Kalas or Ernie Harwell or Jack Buck passed away, but now I see how it can affect them. RIP Dave, you will be missed.
I like the Falcons (-1) tonight. They’re just so good at home (18-1 under Matty Ice), and these short weeks tend to favor the home teams as they don’t have to use up what little time there is to prepare on travelling. I also think both teams pound the run tonight because of the short week and you’re going to see the under hit pretty easy. Atlanta 17, Baltimore 13.
I haven’t been keeping up with my reviews on Dexter and Boardwalk Empire lately. Sorry if you were tuning in to read those, but Sunday-Monday nights are crowded with football and doing fatherly things with the toddler. Often times I don’t get these shows watched until the middle of the week and it seems pointless to keep going. I’ll try to give some thoughts on them when I get the chance, but don’t expect reviews. My quick thoughts on the last few episodes though as we head towards the end of the season for both shows:
I might be out on Boardwalk Empire next season. I love the grandeur of it all, with all the gorgeous 1920’s outfits and buildings and such. I love Nucky, and Steve Buscemi has proven he can carry this show. But there are just WAY too many fringe characters floating around who I don’t really care about. Anything with the FBI agent almost gets tuned out, and the same with Nucky’s brother. There was a lesbian scene last week and I still have no idea who the two participants were. (Side note: Thanks to HBO for all the gratuitous nudity in this show. It really makes up for all the lag time. Even the Scottish lady got naked Almost makes me want to go back to the 1920’s, it seems to be an epic time for nudity, which is weird since nobody could drink) But until they cut back and have only about 3-4 main characters, it will continue to be dizzying to watch this show. Especially since everyone is dressed alike. Can we at least get the characters some nameplates?
As for Dexter, it started off slow, but the last few episodes have been crazy and have me excited to see how it turns out. I was leery when they said there wouldn’t be a primary serial killer for Dexter to go after, but they’ve proven me wrong. Michael C. Hall seems totally re-energized this season and even the additions of Julia Stiles, Robocop and Angelina Jolie’s first husband haven’t slowed anything down. Finally, we’re seeing a dilemma for Quinn as he falls for Deb and isn’t sure how much further he wants to investigate Dexter, and he actually comes across as likeable. And they’ve focused less on Batista and LaGuerta, always a good thing. Though it is creepy watching Dexter and Lumen hang out in Dexter’s old house, especially the bathtub scene. I hope they don’t take the easy way out and have these two fall for each other. The uneasy partnership is paying off right now in terms of plot and I don’t think we need to mess with that.
How about those Miami Heat? Can we just call them The Big Two now and stop talking about Chris Bosh as part of the superstars? Seriously, 14 points and 5 boards a game? This guy is becoming another Antawn Jamison, a guy who piles up stats on bad teams but shrinks to the background when he plays with better players on better teams. Right now, I still like Boston in that conference as they have Garnett, Big Baby Davis and the O’Neals (plus Kendrick Perkins returning in February) to throw at a suspect Miami frontcourt.
Last, the great Dave Niehaus passed away last night. For those who don’t know, he was the play-by-play guy for the Seattle Mariners, and had been doing that job since the inception of the team in 1977. As somebody who watches around 100 Mariners games a season, this has meant hundreds upon hundreds hours the last few summers have been spent listening to this man. His way of storytelling would make you feel like he was part of your family, and when you spend that much time listening to somebody, he essentially becomes extended family. The Mariners and the baseball world lost a great one. I never understood how Philadelphia or Detroit or St. Louis fans felt when Harry Kalas or Ernie Harwell or Jack Buck passed away, but now I see how it can affect them. RIP Dave, you will be missed.
Wednesday, November 10, 2010
Week 10 Guess the NFL Lines
Scott: I don’t got anything this week except HOW ABOUT DEM COWBOYS!! Be sure to harass any Cowboys bandwagon fan you know with this. It never gets old, and they get angrier and angrier.
Matt: Don't have much either, and didn't write too much to prep for my response. Did however record my guesses. Thought I'd play off of your notes for the most part.
Baltimore at Atlanta. Scott: Finally, the Thursday games return so I don’t have to watch The Mentalist (note: I’ve never watched The Mentalist). Atlanta is money at home, so I think they are paid some respect this week even though the Ravens could be the better team. Falcons by 2 ½.
Matt: I had the Falcons by -3, and it's Falcons by -1, so you get this one. Vegas is recognizing the AFC dominance, despite the gap narrowing in the last couple weeks.
Detoit at Buffalo. Scott: Possibly no Matthew Stafford here, whose shoulder injuries are becoming as frequent as Lindsay Lohan’s rehab visits. I smell a sitcom! Could the Bills be favored? Me thinks they will be. Bills by 2.
Matt: I had two words for this game: No Stafford. I also had Buffalo by -3. And I hit it exactly. 1-1.
Minnesota at Chicago. Scott: I was really looking forward to the fans lynching Brad Childress. The guy actually has me on Brett Favre’s side about something. This game will be a test of how much people think of Chicago. Vikings by 1.
Matt: I had the Bears by -3. Cold Chicago day, old ass Favre. You guessed this exactly, Vegas is crazy. 2-1 Scott.
NY Jets at Cleveland. Scott: What to make of the Browns? They play good teams so tough at home and just beat the weekly ‘best team in football’ in New England. And the Jets haven’t done anything special either the last few weeks either. Still, its Cleveland. Jets by 3 ½.
Matt: I have the Jets by -6, same respect the Pats got in Cleveland last week, and the Jets are better on the road. It's Jets by -3, ridiculous. 3-1 Scott.
Carolina at Tampa Bay – Scott: One on hand, the Bucs should demolish the Panthers. On the other hand, the Bucs seem to play to their competition. Tampa Bay by 7.
Matt: Don’t think Vegas has enough respect for J-Free and The News to give them double digits. I had Buccs by -8.5, and it's -6.5. 4-1 Scott.
Houston at Jacksonville – Scott: I see potential in this one screwing me over this week. Is Houston really back to earth or have they been the victim of a tough schedule? I’d normally give a team a better home team advantage, but its Jacksonville, soooo… Houston by 2 ½.
Matt: I had this game as a pick'em, and it's Jags by -1.5. 4-2 Scott.
Cincinnati at Indianapolis – Scott: Cincy showed some spunk last night, almost rallying back to beat the Steelers, but its Peyton Manning and a short week to prepare. Colts by 6 ½.
Matt: I had the Colts by -7.5. and it's -7, tie. 4-2-1 Scott.
Tennessee at Miami – Scott: Randy Moss makes his Titans debut in this one, as he continues his quest to become the first player in history to get paid by the hour. Miami can’t win at home but they’ve had a brutal schedule so far. Miami by 2 ½.
Matt: I guessed this one exactly, Titans by -1. Fish can't win at home. 4-3-1 Scott.
Kansas City at Denver – Scott: I’m starting to think 2 AFC West teams could make it to 10-6 and sneak into the playoffs. I’m also worried the Chiefs might not be one of those two teams. Kansas City by 3.
Matt: I went out on a limb here, and went Broncos by -0.5. KC is mortal on the road, divisional game, yada yada yada... and it's the Chiefs by -1. Huge win for me. 4-4-1.
Dallas at NY Giants – Scott: Wave the white flag already on this one! On talent alone this should be higher but it’s the Cowboys and a division game. Giants by 10 ½.
Matt: I guessed the same as you (can't believe it took this long for a identical guess), Cowboys won't be getting the full two TDs just yet. And I was wrong! Giants by -14. 4-4-2.
Seattle at Arizona – Scott: Whitehurst! Anderson! It’s the NFL on FOX. Does Ron Pitts or Chris Myers get stuck with this one? After Myers no-sold a huge pass play last week, I hope he gets this one. Is it bad I care more about the announcers in this one than the teams? Arizona by 4.
Matt: Is it me, or does Charlie Whitehurst sound like the geeky real alias of some lame Marvel superhero? I had the Cards by -3... And I'm bang on. 5-4-2 Matt.
St. Louis at San Francisco – Scott: Aaron Rodgers is on a bye this week so I fall to Sam Bradford as my fantasy starter this week. We’re on a 7 game win streak Sam, don’t mess this up. San Fran by 3.
Matt: I also had the 9ers by -3. It's definately that kind of week. Real line is San Fran by -6!! Wow... I will say I'm excited to see the second start for former Heisman Troy Smith. Expectations are low since the Giants won the Fall Classic. 5-4-3 Matt.
New England at Pittsburgh – Scott: Who would have thought that Peyton Hillis would be the one to dismantle the ‘bend but don’t break’ Patriots defense? I had this a little higher, but bringing it down a bit thanks to Pittsburgh’s near implosion in the Monday nighter. Pittsburgh by 2 ½.
Matt: I had Pitt by -3, given each's game last week, the Steelers deserve the full home field line. Have no idea who I'm backing for this one. Definately Nantz and Sims, no? Actual line is Steelers by -4.5. 6-4-3 Matt.
Philadelphia at Washington – I hear this Donovan McNabb guy might have played for Philadelphia at one point or another? I hate these overrated NFC East matchups, so let’s have one last look at “13” year old Andy Reid. So many jokes, so little time..
Oh yeah, Philly by 3.
Matt: I have Skins by -3, as Vegas usually doesn't recognize infighting when considering their lines (until they get to a T.O. level). You nailed this one, guess they did factor it in...
Final tally: 6-5-3 Matt. Back in the win column baby!!
Scott: I never should have switched my Patriots-Steelers from 3.5 to 2.5.
Year score: 5-3-2 for Scott
Matt: Don't have much either, and didn't write too much to prep for my response. Did however record my guesses. Thought I'd play off of your notes for the most part.
Baltimore at Atlanta. Scott: Finally, the Thursday games return so I don’t have to watch The Mentalist (note: I’ve never watched The Mentalist). Atlanta is money at home, so I think they are paid some respect this week even though the Ravens could be the better team. Falcons by 2 ½.
Matt: I had the Falcons by -3, and it's Falcons by -1, so you get this one. Vegas is recognizing the AFC dominance, despite the gap narrowing in the last couple weeks.
Detoit at Buffalo. Scott: Possibly no Matthew Stafford here, whose shoulder injuries are becoming as frequent as Lindsay Lohan’s rehab visits. I smell a sitcom! Could the Bills be favored? Me thinks they will be. Bills by 2.
Matt: I had two words for this game: No Stafford. I also had Buffalo by -3. And I hit it exactly. 1-1.
Minnesota at Chicago. Scott: I was really looking forward to the fans lynching Brad Childress. The guy actually has me on Brett Favre’s side about something. This game will be a test of how much people think of Chicago. Vikings by 1.
Matt: I had the Bears by -3. Cold Chicago day, old ass Favre. You guessed this exactly, Vegas is crazy. 2-1 Scott.
NY Jets at Cleveland. Scott: What to make of the Browns? They play good teams so tough at home and just beat the weekly ‘best team in football’ in New England. And the Jets haven’t done anything special either the last few weeks either. Still, its Cleveland. Jets by 3 ½.
Matt: I have the Jets by -6, same respect the Pats got in Cleveland last week, and the Jets are better on the road. It's Jets by -3, ridiculous. 3-1 Scott.
Carolina at Tampa Bay – Scott: One on hand, the Bucs should demolish the Panthers. On the other hand, the Bucs seem to play to their competition. Tampa Bay by 7.
Matt: Don’t think Vegas has enough respect for J-Free and The News to give them double digits. I had Buccs by -8.5, and it's -6.5. 4-1 Scott.
Houston at Jacksonville – Scott: I see potential in this one screwing me over this week. Is Houston really back to earth or have they been the victim of a tough schedule? I’d normally give a team a better home team advantage, but its Jacksonville, soooo… Houston by 2 ½.
Matt: I had this game as a pick'em, and it's Jags by -1.5. 4-2 Scott.
Cincinnati at Indianapolis – Scott: Cincy showed some spunk last night, almost rallying back to beat the Steelers, but its Peyton Manning and a short week to prepare. Colts by 6 ½.
Matt: I had the Colts by -7.5. and it's -7, tie. 4-2-1 Scott.
Tennessee at Miami – Scott: Randy Moss makes his Titans debut in this one, as he continues his quest to become the first player in history to get paid by the hour. Miami can’t win at home but they’ve had a brutal schedule so far. Miami by 2 ½.
Matt: I guessed this one exactly, Titans by -1. Fish can't win at home. 4-3-1 Scott.
Kansas City at Denver – Scott: I’m starting to think 2 AFC West teams could make it to 10-6 and sneak into the playoffs. I’m also worried the Chiefs might not be one of those two teams. Kansas City by 3.
Matt: I went out on a limb here, and went Broncos by -0.5. KC is mortal on the road, divisional game, yada yada yada... and it's the Chiefs by -1. Huge win for me. 4-4-1.
Dallas at NY Giants – Scott: Wave the white flag already on this one! On talent alone this should be higher but it’s the Cowboys and a division game. Giants by 10 ½.
Matt: I guessed the same as you (can't believe it took this long for a identical guess), Cowboys won't be getting the full two TDs just yet. And I was wrong! Giants by -14. 4-4-2.
Seattle at Arizona – Scott: Whitehurst! Anderson! It’s the NFL on FOX. Does Ron Pitts or Chris Myers get stuck with this one? After Myers no-sold a huge pass play last week, I hope he gets this one. Is it bad I care more about the announcers in this one than the teams? Arizona by 4.
Matt: Is it me, or does Charlie Whitehurst sound like the geeky real alias of some lame Marvel superhero? I had the Cards by -3... And I'm bang on. 5-4-2 Matt.
St. Louis at San Francisco – Scott: Aaron Rodgers is on a bye this week so I fall to Sam Bradford as my fantasy starter this week. We’re on a 7 game win streak Sam, don’t mess this up. San Fran by 3.
Matt: I also had the 9ers by -3. It's definately that kind of week. Real line is San Fran by -6!! Wow... I will say I'm excited to see the second start for former Heisman Troy Smith. Expectations are low since the Giants won the Fall Classic. 5-4-3 Matt.
New England at Pittsburgh – Scott: Who would have thought that Peyton Hillis would be the one to dismantle the ‘bend but don’t break’ Patriots defense? I had this a little higher, but bringing it down a bit thanks to Pittsburgh’s near implosion in the Monday nighter. Pittsburgh by 2 ½.
Matt: I had Pitt by -3, given each's game last week, the Steelers deserve the full home field line. Have no idea who I'm backing for this one. Definately Nantz and Sims, no? Actual line is Steelers by -4.5. 6-4-3 Matt.
Philadelphia at Washington – I hear this Donovan McNabb guy might have played for Philadelphia at one point or another? I hate these overrated NFC East matchups, so let’s have one last look at “13” year old Andy Reid. So many jokes, so little time..
Oh yeah, Philly by 3.
Matt: I have Skins by -3, as Vegas usually doesn't recognize infighting when considering their lines (until they get to a T.O. level). You nailed this one, guess they did factor it in...
Final tally: 6-5-3 Matt. Back in the win column baby!!
Scott: I never should have switched my Patriots-Steelers from 3.5 to 2.5.
Year score: 5-3-2 for Scott
Friday, November 5, 2010
Week 9 NFL picks
Last week: 10-3
YTD: 59-56-2
Did you go against me like I told you last week? No matter what I tell you to do, I can’t get it right. Back on the right side of .500 now, time to pick it up as we enter the 2nd half of the season. This should be an interesting week with a ton of big name road favorites, which usually means there are upsets to be had.
New Orleans (-7) at Carolina – This one has all the makings of a trap game for New Orleans, with a huge win over Pittsburgh as they enter the easy part of their schedule. Everyone (over 80% according to the consensus at Covers.com) has the Saints here. I have no good reason to do this other than my mantra ‘Vegas doesn’t give away free money.’ Pick: Carolina
San Diego (-3) at Houston – The oddsmakers really like the Chargers as this is their 3rd straight week of being a favorite to a team that has a much better record than them (though they won 1 and could have won the 2nd of those games). Going back to the same Vegas mantra. Pick: San Diego
NY Jets (-4.5) at Detroit – The spread is so low because the Lions manage to cover spreads every week (6-1 on the year). But I expect a bounce back game from the Jets’ offense. As for their defense, let’s not forget they held a very explosive Packers’ offense to only 9 points last week. If the Jets want to establish themselves as a contender, they need to put a good hurting on the pesky Lions. Pick: NY Jets
Miami (+5) at Baltimore – Another game in the Vegas zone (between 4 and 6 points, but not on either number). Baltimore had the bye week and I think everyone is onto the fact that Miami plays well on the road. But Baltimore has handled the Fish the last two years pretty handily, I don’t know why they can’t do it again. Pick: Baltimore
Arizona (+8.5) at Minnesota – Derek Anderson remembered he was Derek Anderson at the end of last week, but can he do it for a full game on the road? Minnesota enters the easy part of the schedule, and I expect this game to be full of faint praise for Brett Favre for gunslinging it up with a busted up chin. Pick: Minnesota
Tampa Bay (+8.5) at Atlanta – Both teams with a 5-2 record, playing in the same division, but almost a double digit spread? Everyone is on Tampa, but they seem to put up a stinker about every 3rd game or so, and I think they’re due for one here, as the spread here is too good to be true. Pick: Atlanta
New England (-5) at Cleveland – I don’t make the spreads. The best team in the NFL at 6-1 only gives 5 points to the lowly Browns? Cleveland is coming off the bye and plays well at home. I don’t know how, but I think they hang in this game. Pick: Cleveland
Chicago (-3) at Buffalo – The Bills have taken very good teams to overtime the last couple of weeks and now play the Bears off a bye week. Everyone is saying this will be Buffalo’s first win, but until they get one, I can’t bet on them to cover such a low spread. Pick: Chicago
NY Giants (-7) at Seattle – The Chaz Whitehurst era begins in Seattle, and this is not the team you want to start against for your first start. Seattle got rocked by 30 in Oakland last week where they were outgained by almost 400 yards. I can’t find any reason to take Seattle. Pick: NY Giants
Indianapolis (+2.5) at Philadelphia – Michael Vick and DeSean Jackson return off a bye week. Colts are banged up and played in the Monday night game. Everybody is on Indy. Every time I bet against Peyton Manning I get burned, but here goes. Pick: Philadelphia
Kansas City (+2) at Oakland – Can the Raiders continue to put up 500 yards a week? Of course not. The road team has dominated this matchup which is strange as both teams enjoy loud home field crowds. I love the under here as both teams have good running games that should chew up a lot of clock. I might be jinxing my team at a time they need a win but here goes.. Pick: Kansas City
Dallas (+8.5) at Green Bay – I hate Jon Kitna, but the Dallas defense is good enough to somehow keep the Cowboys in this one. They’ll be fired up for a night game in what might be their last meaningful game of the season. Pick: Dallas
Pittsburgh (-5) at Cincinnati – Here we have two teams whose QB’s stats are a little better than how they’ve played. Ben RKelly has been fumble prone while my documented hate for Carson Palmer is well documented on this barely read blog. I suspect a close game with a late cover on something like a Palmer interception. Pick: Pittsburgh
YTD: 59-56-2
Did you go against me like I told you last week? No matter what I tell you to do, I can’t get it right. Back on the right side of .500 now, time to pick it up as we enter the 2nd half of the season. This should be an interesting week with a ton of big name road favorites, which usually means there are upsets to be had.
New Orleans (-7) at Carolina – This one has all the makings of a trap game for New Orleans, with a huge win over Pittsburgh as they enter the easy part of their schedule. Everyone (over 80% according to the consensus at Covers.com) has the Saints here. I have no good reason to do this other than my mantra ‘Vegas doesn’t give away free money.’ Pick: Carolina
San Diego (-3) at Houston – The oddsmakers really like the Chargers as this is their 3rd straight week of being a favorite to a team that has a much better record than them (though they won 1 and could have won the 2nd of those games). Going back to the same Vegas mantra. Pick: San Diego
NY Jets (-4.5) at Detroit – The spread is so low because the Lions manage to cover spreads every week (6-1 on the year). But I expect a bounce back game from the Jets’ offense. As for their defense, let’s not forget they held a very explosive Packers’ offense to only 9 points last week. If the Jets want to establish themselves as a contender, they need to put a good hurting on the pesky Lions. Pick: NY Jets
Miami (+5) at Baltimore – Another game in the Vegas zone (between 4 and 6 points, but not on either number). Baltimore had the bye week and I think everyone is onto the fact that Miami plays well on the road. But Baltimore has handled the Fish the last two years pretty handily, I don’t know why they can’t do it again. Pick: Baltimore
Arizona (+8.5) at Minnesota – Derek Anderson remembered he was Derek Anderson at the end of last week, but can he do it for a full game on the road? Minnesota enters the easy part of the schedule, and I expect this game to be full of faint praise for Brett Favre for gunslinging it up with a busted up chin. Pick: Minnesota
Tampa Bay (+8.5) at Atlanta – Both teams with a 5-2 record, playing in the same division, but almost a double digit spread? Everyone is on Tampa, but they seem to put up a stinker about every 3rd game or so, and I think they’re due for one here, as the spread here is too good to be true. Pick: Atlanta
New England (-5) at Cleveland – I don’t make the spreads. The best team in the NFL at 6-1 only gives 5 points to the lowly Browns? Cleveland is coming off the bye and plays well at home. I don’t know how, but I think they hang in this game. Pick: Cleveland
Chicago (-3) at Buffalo – The Bills have taken very good teams to overtime the last couple of weeks and now play the Bears off a bye week. Everyone is saying this will be Buffalo’s first win, but until they get one, I can’t bet on them to cover such a low spread. Pick: Chicago
NY Giants (-7) at Seattle – The Chaz Whitehurst era begins in Seattle, and this is not the team you want to start against for your first start. Seattle got rocked by 30 in Oakland last week where they were outgained by almost 400 yards. I can’t find any reason to take Seattle. Pick: NY Giants
Indianapolis (+2.5) at Philadelphia – Michael Vick and DeSean Jackson return off a bye week. Colts are banged up and played in the Monday night game. Everybody is on Indy. Every time I bet against Peyton Manning I get burned, but here goes. Pick: Philadelphia
Kansas City (+2) at Oakland – Can the Raiders continue to put up 500 yards a week? Of course not. The road team has dominated this matchup which is strange as both teams enjoy loud home field crowds. I love the under here as both teams have good running games that should chew up a lot of clock. I might be jinxing my team at a time they need a win but here goes.. Pick: Kansas City
Dallas (+8.5) at Green Bay – I hate Jon Kitna, but the Dallas defense is good enough to somehow keep the Cowboys in this one. They’ll be fired up for a night game in what might be their last meaningful game of the season. Pick: Dallas
Pittsburgh (-5) at Cincinnati – Here we have two teams whose QB’s stats are a little better than how they’ve played. Ben RKelly has been fumble prone while my documented hate for Carson Palmer is well documented on this barely read blog. I suspect a close game with a late cover on something like a Palmer interception. Pick: Pittsburgh
Wednesday, November 3, 2010
Week 9 Guess the Lines
Scott: 10-3 week and back with a vengeance! We switch things up this week as Matty will take the hammer and no-sell any possible jokes I make (who am I kidding, they're not funny). I got nothing much to add this week, other than why are we talking so much about teams who suck (Cowboys and Vikings, I’m looking at YOU here) and not about a ton of feel good stories like the Raiders, Bucs and Jaguars?
Matt: Let's get one thing straight here, the Jags aren't a feel good story. They still can't fill their stadium or televise home games, and by this time 2012 They'll be the LA Magic. On to the lines.
Tampa Bay at Atlanta - Scott: Atlanta comes off the bye week while the Bucs are at 5-2 and tied for the division lead. Somehow, I think that means little to the people who bet or make these lines. Atlanta by 6 ½.
Matt: The NFC’s version of Miami @ Baltimore, undefeated on the road meets undefeated at home. J-Free hasn’t convinced everyone yet. Falcons by -6.
Actual line: Atlanta by 8. Point to Scott.
Chicago at Buffalo (in Toronto) – Scott: The NFL continues its efforts to alienate anyone outside the good ol’ US of A with this one. Chicago is a couple of lucky wins away from joining Dallas and Minnesota in the ‘talented but suck’ club, while Buffalo has gone to overtime two straight weeks on the road against quality opponents. Still, it’s the Bills. Chicago by 1.5.
Matt: The Bears couldn’t have caught the bye at a better time, temporarily stopping the free fall. What can you say about the winless Bills… back to back losses in OT in which they should have won… Heartbreak City!! Time to show that AFC scum is better than NFC scum? Bears by -2.
Actual line: Chicago by 3. Point to Matt.
New England at Cleveland – Will the Pats have Randy Moss back for this one? Or will he be saluting Bill Belichick on somebody else’s podium? Cleveland plays tough, but the Patriots don’t have a 6-1 record for nothing. Patriots by 10 ½.
Matt: Patriots are the newly anointed “best team in the NFL”, Cleveland coming off bye and win over the champs – but I don’t think anyone has illusions that the Browns are any good… yet. Pats by -7.5.
Actual line: New England by 5. Point to Matt.
NY Jets at Detroit – Scott: The Lions always play tough, and it will be interesting to see their young offensive stars go up against a blitzing, hard-hitting defense. Still though, the Jets are a top team, despite what their offense did against Green Bay. Jets by 4.
Matt: No doubt, the Lions have a different look with Stafford back under center. Jets are unbeaten on the road. Detroit by -1.
Actual line: Jets by 4. Point to Scott.
New Orleans at Carolina – Scott: Do we believe the Saints are back after a big Sunday night victory over the Steelers? Or do we make them prove it another week against the lowly Panthers? I think Vegas has bought in. New Orleans by 10.
Matt: Could this be the blowout game we’ve all been waiting for from the Saints? NO by -10.5.
Actual line: Saints by 7. Point to Scott.
Miami at Baltimore – Scott: Miami is starting to get to the point where they should be giving points on the road and getting them at home. I don’t trust their offense though. And Baltimore is rested after a week off. Baltimore by 3 ½.
Matt: Fish don’t lose on the road, Ravens don’t lose at home, something has got to give... Ravens come off the bye. Bmore by -5.
Actual line: Baltimore by 6. Point to Matt.
San Diego at Houston – Scott: So the Chargers have the most yards for, the least yards against, and are 3-5? That makes about as much sense as trying to figure out which Houston team is going to show up in any given game. Houston by 3.
Matt: I don’t read too much into last week’s outcomes, SD seemingly always beats the Titans, and Houston always loses in Indy. Vegas might read too much into the Charger’s win though. Texans by -3.5.
Actual line: San Diego by 1.5. Point to Scott.
Arizona at Minnesota – Scott: I actually thought they killed Brett Favre with that chin shot, but like (choose movie reference here – Michael Myers, The Terminator, the dismembered knight in Monty Python), he just can’t be stopped. And thanks to Derek Anderson for being who we thought he was last week. Minnesota by 7 ½.
Matt: The Dallas Cowboys should send the Vikings some cookies. Despite being the league’s biggest disappointment, Minny is hogging all the headlines. Should we start assuming that Zona will always use both QBs in every game? Vikes by -4.
Actual line: Minnesota by 8. Point to Scott.
NY Giants at Seattle – Scott: This game is a test of just how much Vegas thinks of the Seahawks at home. The Giants are arguably the NFC’s best team right now, and New York being New York, Seattle won’t get it’s typical home respect this week. Giants by 1.
Matt: If Manning started the way he did in Dallas, in Seattle (or 80% of the other teams), they lose for sure, but Dallas thought they had that game won in the 1st quarter and took their foot off the gas. Eli usually doesn’t have two bad games in a row. Hawks by -1.
Actual line: NY Giants by 4. Point to Scott.
Indianapolis at Philadelphia – Scott: Probably my toughest game to pick as there are so many variables with Mike Vick back, the Colts playing on Monday night, big name injuries on both sides.. Indy by 2.
Matt: Why the #$%& isn’t it flex schedule time yet?? Vick is back, Philly coming off the bye, Peyton won last week passing to a set of old speakers and a trash can. Eagles have not been especially good at home. Pick’em?
Actual line: Eagles by 3. Point to Matt.
Kansas City at Oakland – Scott: Hands up everyone who thought at the beginning of the 2010 season this game would be for the AFC West lead! Al Davis just had somebody raise his corpse’s hand. Raiders by 2 ½.
Matt: Why the #$%& isn’t it flex schedule time yet?? Don’t worry, these two will get another chance at the evening feature in week 17. Just a couple years ago we had Broncos-Chargers in week 17 for the division title, might we have another such battle with the other two teams this year? Probably not. Chiefs are human on the road, as is usually the case with young teams (unless that team is headed by J-Free!). Raiders by -2.
Actual line: Oakland by 3. Point to Scott.
Dallas at Green Bay – Scott: They really need to start the flex schedule a little sooner. I have zero interest in watching Jon Kitna. But hopefully Aaron Rodgers can win me my fantasy game. That’s all I’ve got on this one. Green Bay by 6 ½.
Matt: Why the #$%& isn’t it flex schedule time yet?? So we could boot this shitty game out of the Sunday Nighter. The promos for this game since last Sunday have been laughable, what can you say about the Boys to hype them up, seriously… Packers by -6.5.
Actual line: Green Bay by 8. Tie.
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati – Scott: Another weird game, Pittsburgh off a tough game, Cincy beat the Steelers in both matchups last week, Monday Night football.. But I still can’t go against the team I think wins it all this seasons because of one bad game. Steelers by 2 ½.
Matt: Why the Well, the all-division dominant mystique from last year evaporated when the Browns beat them this year, but the Bengals still beat the Ravens, and the Steelers have looked *gulp* worse, since the rapist has returned. (added afterwards: So... Cincy won both matchups last "week" huh? hahaha) Steelers by -3.
Actual line: Pittsburgh by 4 ½. Point to Matt.
Week Score: Scott 7, Matt 5, Tie 1.
YTD: Scott 5, Matt 2, Tie 2
Matt: Let's get one thing straight here, the Jags aren't a feel good story. They still can't fill their stadium or televise home games, and by this time 2012 They'll be the LA Magic. On to the lines.
Tampa Bay at Atlanta - Scott: Atlanta comes off the bye week while the Bucs are at 5-2 and tied for the division lead. Somehow, I think that means little to the people who bet or make these lines. Atlanta by 6 ½.
Matt: The NFC’s version of Miami @ Baltimore, undefeated on the road meets undefeated at home. J-Free hasn’t convinced everyone yet. Falcons by -6.
Actual line: Atlanta by 8. Point to Scott.
Chicago at Buffalo (in Toronto) – Scott: The NFL continues its efforts to alienate anyone outside the good ol’ US of A with this one. Chicago is a couple of lucky wins away from joining Dallas and Minnesota in the ‘talented but suck’ club, while Buffalo has gone to overtime two straight weeks on the road against quality opponents. Still, it’s the Bills. Chicago by 1.5.
Matt: The Bears couldn’t have caught the bye at a better time, temporarily stopping the free fall. What can you say about the winless Bills… back to back losses in OT in which they should have won… Heartbreak City!! Time to show that AFC scum is better than NFC scum? Bears by -2.
Actual line: Chicago by 3. Point to Matt.
New England at Cleveland – Will the Pats have Randy Moss back for this one? Or will he be saluting Bill Belichick on somebody else’s podium? Cleveland plays tough, but the Patriots don’t have a 6-1 record for nothing. Patriots by 10 ½.
Matt: Patriots are the newly anointed “best team in the NFL”, Cleveland coming off bye and win over the champs – but I don’t think anyone has illusions that the Browns are any good… yet. Pats by -7.5.
Actual line: New England by 5. Point to Matt.
NY Jets at Detroit – Scott: The Lions always play tough, and it will be interesting to see their young offensive stars go up against a blitzing, hard-hitting defense. Still though, the Jets are a top team, despite what their offense did against Green Bay. Jets by 4.
Matt: No doubt, the Lions have a different look with Stafford back under center. Jets are unbeaten on the road. Detroit by -1.
Actual line: Jets by 4. Point to Scott.
New Orleans at Carolina – Scott: Do we believe the Saints are back after a big Sunday night victory over the Steelers? Or do we make them prove it another week against the lowly Panthers? I think Vegas has bought in. New Orleans by 10.
Matt: Could this be the blowout game we’ve all been waiting for from the Saints? NO by -10.5.
Actual line: Saints by 7. Point to Scott.
Miami at Baltimore – Scott: Miami is starting to get to the point where they should be giving points on the road and getting them at home. I don’t trust their offense though. And Baltimore is rested after a week off. Baltimore by 3 ½.
Matt: Fish don’t lose on the road, Ravens don’t lose at home, something has got to give... Ravens come off the bye. Bmore by -5.
Actual line: Baltimore by 6. Point to Matt.
San Diego at Houston – Scott: So the Chargers have the most yards for, the least yards against, and are 3-5? That makes about as much sense as trying to figure out which Houston team is going to show up in any given game. Houston by 3.
Matt: I don’t read too much into last week’s outcomes, SD seemingly always beats the Titans, and Houston always loses in Indy. Vegas might read too much into the Charger’s win though. Texans by -3.5.
Actual line: San Diego by 1.5. Point to Scott.
Arizona at Minnesota – Scott: I actually thought they killed Brett Favre with that chin shot, but like (choose movie reference here – Michael Myers, The Terminator, the dismembered knight in Monty Python), he just can’t be stopped. And thanks to Derek Anderson for being who we thought he was last week. Minnesota by 7 ½.
Matt: The Dallas Cowboys should send the Vikings some cookies. Despite being the league’s biggest disappointment, Minny is hogging all the headlines. Should we start assuming that Zona will always use both QBs in every game? Vikes by -4.
Actual line: Minnesota by 8. Point to Scott.
NY Giants at Seattle – Scott: This game is a test of just how much Vegas thinks of the Seahawks at home. The Giants are arguably the NFC’s best team right now, and New York being New York, Seattle won’t get it’s typical home respect this week. Giants by 1.
Matt: If Manning started the way he did in Dallas, in Seattle (or 80% of the other teams), they lose for sure, but Dallas thought they had that game won in the 1st quarter and took their foot off the gas. Eli usually doesn’t have two bad games in a row. Hawks by -1.
Actual line: NY Giants by 4. Point to Scott.
Indianapolis at Philadelphia – Scott: Probably my toughest game to pick as there are so many variables with Mike Vick back, the Colts playing on Monday night, big name injuries on both sides.. Indy by 2.
Matt: Why the #$%& isn’t it flex schedule time yet?? Vick is back, Philly coming off the bye, Peyton won last week passing to a set of old speakers and a trash can. Eagles have not been especially good at home. Pick’em?
Actual line: Eagles by 3. Point to Matt.
Kansas City at Oakland – Scott: Hands up everyone who thought at the beginning of the 2010 season this game would be for the AFC West lead! Al Davis just had somebody raise his corpse’s hand. Raiders by 2 ½.
Matt: Why the #$%& isn’t it flex schedule time yet?? Don’t worry, these two will get another chance at the evening feature in week 17. Just a couple years ago we had Broncos-Chargers in week 17 for the division title, might we have another such battle with the other two teams this year? Probably not. Chiefs are human on the road, as is usually the case with young teams (unless that team is headed by J-Free!). Raiders by -2.
Actual line: Oakland by 3. Point to Scott.
Dallas at Green Bay – Scott: They really need to start the flex schedule a little sooner. I have zero interest in watching Jon Kitna. But hopefully Aaron Rodgers can win me my fantasy game. That’s all I’ve got on this one. Green Bay by 6 ½.
Matt: Why the #$%& isn’t it flex schedule time yet?? So we could boot this shitty game out of the Sunday Nighter. The promos for this game since last Sunday have been laughable, what can you say about the Boys to hype them up, seriously… Packers by -6.5.
Actual line: Green Bay by 8. Tie.
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati – Scott: Another weird game, Pittsburgh off a tough game, Cincy beat the Steelers in both matchups last week, Monday Night football.. But I still can’t go against the team I think wins it all this seasons because of one bad game. Steelers by 2 ½.
Matt: Why the Well, the all-division dominant mystique from last year evaporated when the Browns beat them this year, but the Bengals still beat the Ravens, and the Steelers have looked *gulp* worse, since the rapist has returned. (added afterwards: So... Cincy won both matchups last "week" huh? hahaha) Steelers by -3.
Actual line: Pittsburgh by 4 ½. Point to Matt.
Week Score: Scott 7, Matt 5, Tie 1.
YTD: Scott 5, Matt 2, Tie 2
Friday, October 29, 2010
Week 8 NFL picks
Week 7: 5-9
YTD: 49-53-2
You’re still reading? I guess I am becoming the automatic fade at this point. Oh well, since you’re here for bad picks, let’s get on with them!
Buffalo (+7.5) at Kansas City – I pegged this line but it’s a good line. I still don’t trust Kansas City as a good team, even if they will win the division, and Ryan Fitzpatrick can move the ball. He’s good for a garbage touchdown for the cover. Pick: Buffalo
Jacksonville (+6.5) at Dallas – Bouman! Kitna! It’s the NFL on CBS! Nice to see the Cowboys trying to get the ’07 Lions back together with Kitna and Williams. David Garrard might actually be back for this one. He’s competent. Jon Kitna isn’t. The Cowboys’ season gets worse. Pick: Jacksonville
Carolina (+3) at St. Louis – I like this Sam Bradford kid. Rams are decent home, even if you can’t trust them on the road. No DeAngelo Williams in this one means Steve Smith might punch out John Fox by halftime. And that’s the only real reason to watch this one. Pick: Rams
Miami (+1) at Cincinnati – What was I thinking taking the Bengals last week? We can’t make the same mistake here. And Miami is on the road. Pick: Miami
Washington (+2.5) at Detroit – The Lions giving points to a 4-3 team? Something is smelly. But let’s see. Donovan McNabb is a bad QB. LaRon Landry is questionable. Matthew Stafford is back which also opens up things for Jahvid Best. And as I’ve complained for awhile, the Redskins are lucky. This could be just the type of game to prove it. Pick: Detroit.
Denver (+1) ‘at’ San Francisco – This one is London as the NFL continues its pursuit to alienate any possible fan base they might have overseas. Denver has just been curb stomped by Oakland, and while the Niners aren’t winning, they’ve been competitive. But even if Kyle Orton is a mirage even though he’s on pace for well over 4,000 yards, he’s still way better than David Carr. Pick: Denver
Green Bay (+6) at NY Jets – A battle of the last two teams jilted by Brett Favre. This game is almost like a support group for the teams as they attempt to move on in their lives. I like the Jets here, everything points to them (bye week, better team, Packers can’t run the ball). But the one thing the Packers will do is put up points here, and I think they’re good for the cover. Pick: Green Bay
Tennessee (+3.5) at San Diego – The Chargers give points again to a team clearly superior to them. Vince Young is back but will be rusty. I don’t think Kenny Britt has another 3 TD game in him. Here’s another thing: The Chargers are averaging 423 yards on offense and only giving up 244 on defense, almost a 200 yard difference. If the Redskins are this year’s lucky team, the Chargers have to be the unlucky team. One of these days skill wins out. Pick: San Diego
Tampa Bay (+3) at Arizona – First team to 15 wins! Seriously, these teams come in averaging an identical 16.3 points per game. Tampa has yet to lose on the road, and when in doubt, take the points. Pick: Tampa Bay
Minnesota (+5.5) at New England – They say Brett Favre won’t play. I’ll believe that when I see it. I don’t like that the Patriots give up almost 380 yards per game on defense. The Vikings have a tough schedule, but they haven’t lost by 9 or more this season, and even that game was on a last minute Favre pick-6. Pick: Minnesota
Seattle (+2.5) at Oakland – Oakland is due for the inevitable bounce-down game after a huge win. Seattle can’t win at home. Something has to give. The Chiefs need somebody to attempt to chase them down in the division. Pick: Oakland
Pittsburgh (+1) at New Orleans – Halloween night, weird things will happen. Pittsburgh is the better team, but New Orleans needs this game. Pick: New Orleans
Houston (+5.5) at Indianapolis – Houston always plays Indy tough, and will be looking for the season sweep. The Colts are too banged up (Dallas Clark out, Joseph Addai doubtful) and something has to eventually give. Yes, it’s Peyton Manning at home in a night game, but… Pick: Houston
Happy Halloween everyone!
YTD: 49-53-2
You’re still reading? I guess I am becoming the automatic fade at this point. Oh well, since you’re here for bad picks, let’s get on with them!
Buffalo (+7.5) at Kansas City – I pegged this line but it’s a good line. I still don’t trust Kansas City as a good team, even if they will win the division, and Ryan Fitzpatrick can move the ball. He’s good for a garbage touchdown for the cover. Pick: Buffalo
Jacksonville (+6.5) at Dallas – Bouman! Kitna! It’s the NFL on CBS! Nice to see the Cowboys trying to get the ’07 Lions back together with Kitna and Williams. David Garrard might actually be back for this one. He’s competent. Jon Kitna isn’t. The Cowboys’ season gets worse. Pick: Jacksonville
Carolina (+3) at St. Louis – I like this Sam Bradford kid. Rams are decent home, even if you can’t trust them on the road. No DeAngelo Williams in this one means Steve Smith might punch out John Fox by halftime. And that’s the only real reason to watch this one. Pick: Rams
Miami (+1) at Cincinnati – What was I thinking taking the Bengals last week? We can’t make the same mistake here. And Miami is on the road. Pick: Miami
Washington (+2.5) at Detroit – The Lions giving points to a 4-3 team? Something is smelly. But let’s see. Donovan McNabb is a bad QB. LaRon Landry is questionable. Matthew Stafford is back which also opens up things for Jahvid Best. And as I’ve complained for awhile, the Redskins are lucky. This could be just the type of game to prove it. Pick: Detroit.
Denver (+1) ‘at’ San Francisco – This one is London as the NFL continues its pursuit to alienate any possible fan base they might have overseas. Denver has just been curb stomped by Oakland, and while the Niners aren’t winning, they’ve been competitive. But even if Kyle Orton is a mirage even though he’s on pace for well over 4,000 yards, he’s still way better than David Carr. Pick: Denver
Green Bay (+6) at NY Jets – A battle of the last two teams jilted by Brett Favre. This game is almost like a support group for the teams as they attempt to move on in their lives. I like the Jets here, everything points to them (bye week, better team, Packers can’t run the ball). But the one thing the Packers will do is put up points here, and I think they’re good for the cover. Pick: Green Bay
Tennessee (+3.5) at San Diego – The Chargers give points again to a team clearly superior to them. Vince Young is back but will be rusty. I don’t think Kenny Britt has another 3 TD game in him. Here’s another thing: The Chargers are averaging 423 yards on offense and only giving up 244 on defense, almost a 200 yard difference. If the Redskins are this year’s lucky team, the Chargers have to be the unlucky team. One of these days skill wins out. Pick: San Diego
Tampa Bay (+3) at Arizona – First team to 15 wins! Seriously, these teams come in averaging an identical 16.3 points per game. Tampa has yet to lose on the road, and when in doubt, take the points. Pick: Tampa Bay
Minnesota (+5.5) at New England – They say Brett Favre won’t play. I’ll believe that when I see it. I don’t like that the Patriots give up almost 380 yards per game on defense. The Vikings have a tough schedule, but they haven’t lost by 9 or more this season, and even that game was on a last minute Favre pick-6. Pick: Minnesota
Seattle (+2.5) at Oakland – Oakland is due for the inevitable bounce-down game after a huge win. Seattle can’t win at home. Something has to give. The Chiefs need somebody to attempt to chase them down in the division. Pick: Oakland
Pittsburgh (+1) at New Orleans – Halloween night, weird things will happen. Pittsburgh is the better team, but New Orleans needs this game. Pick: New Orleans
Houston (+5.5) at Indianapolis – Houston always plays Indy tough, and will be looking for the season sweep. The Colts are too banged up (Dallas Clark out, Joseph Addai doubtful) and something has to eventually give. Yes, it’s Peyton Manning at home in a night game, but… Pick: Houston
Happy Halloween everyone!
Tuesday, October 26, 2010
Week 8 NFL lines with Matty K
Matt: Guess who's bizzack?!? I shocked the world this week, going 12/14! Had SD completed the comeback (Kaeding rang a very makeable FG off the upright), and had I not thought the Cowboys had a chance to cover versus the Giants, I would have been perfect. However, I will leave the woulda, coulda, shouldas to Brian McKnight and move on.
Less helmet hits this week led to more scoring, and less injuries, and I don't think anyone thinks we saw a poorer product on the field. The only thing I take out of the whole issue is that James Harrison was probably the kid on the playground that threatened to go home if the other boys and girls didn't play the way he wanted.
I'm coming for you like Ricky Bobby took it to Jean Girard, no more cheap half point wins for you this week... suspect...
Scott: We’re like opposites right now in that I can’t buy a betting win (5-9 this week), but I’m owning you here! Truth be told, I’d rather be on your end.
As for less helmet-to-helmet hits, we can agree that’s a good thing. All the defensive players whined, but here’s the thing… The NFL keeps going out of their way to protect OFFENSIVE players. Makes sense, people pay to see the Peyton Mannings and Adrian Petersons. But not one rule that I can think of in years has helped a defense (that I can think of). So now you have offenses that are allowed to run wild, and you can barely touch offensive players.
So what do defensive coaches and coordinators do? They teach you to try to do the one thing that is the great equalizer: Get the other team to turn the ball over. How do you do that? You hit the guy as hard as you can. You stick your helmet in there. And now you’re basically telling the defensive players you can’t do that either. We’re going to see a slew of 42-37 games now. I’m a defensive guy and I know there are people who like points, but that seems a little excessive. Who am I kidding, the NFL would love 66-58 games.
If the NFL wants to get rid of those sort of hits, then it needs to try and even things out for the defenses, or the only thing the defense can do to have a chance is hit hard, which will lead to borderline or sometimes blatantly dirty hits. Rant over. At least until the topic of Brett Favre comes up…
BUF @ KC. Matt: Wow, Buffalo finally gets up for a game and they get hosed by the refs, rough. Now they get the AFC West leading (Can you believe your boys would have had this prefix for at least 9 weeks?? And that is assuming they tank, and THE RAIDERS somehow get hot... hahaha, I love this league) Chiefs. KC has got to be careful this week, the Bills just got their hearts torn out last week, don't know if that helps or hinders them, but they're still winless, so I'm going with helps. Chiefs by *gulp* -11.5.
Scott: KC is winning their division. They’re going to go 12-4 and then lose to somebody like Indy or New England in the 2nd round of the playoffs, mark it down. Their schedule is marshmallowy soft, even though they are likely not one of the top 6 teams in the conference. That said, this line WILL be exactly KC by 7.5 (calling my shot!), because they won’t make the Bills double digit dogs after last week.
Actual line: Kansas City by 7.5. Point to Scott. (Do I get 2 for that one?)
GB @ NYJ. Matt: Despite more people giving more attention to Minnesota losing the Sunday Nighter, going in, that game definitely meant more to the Packers, they had lost 3 of 4 coming in, Rodgers needed to vanquish his sensei, it was must-win. Jets coming off the bye, arguably the best team in the League, and now Revis is 100%. Jets by -7.
Scott: I’m thinking these receivers on other teams are starting to look at a trip to Revis Island as a nice vacation destination. Not only because he’s injured, but because he’s overrated. Not sure what to make of the Packers right now with their injuries, but not the team you want to face banged up.. Jets by 3.
Actual line: Jets by 6. Point to Matt.
DEN @ SF. Matt: This one is technically a night game, live from London. This time we got the Sillynannies playing... the Sillynannies. Always an interesting scenario because there is no home field advantage since the site is neutral. Both teams coming in with some serious baggage (pun definately intended). So the question is, who benefits most from having this game played overseas? They're chanting for Tebow in Denver, and crazy-coach-guy has a 1-win team who lost to a winless team. I'll go with a pick.
Scott: I forgot which game was being played in London (which will be reflected in my line, I counted this as a 49er home game), but so mad you grabbed the Sillynannies reference first. I’d been saving that one all season, then forgot that the London game was this week. One question: How do you send these two teams if you want to sell the NFL in Europe? Can’t we just send them DVD’s of good teams? San Fran by 2.5.
Actual line: Pick. Point to Matt.
JAX @ DAL. Matt: I'm calling this line on the basis that the farmer is still calling the plays under center for the Jags. Jon Kitna for the 'Boys. Dallas by -1.
Scott: I was shocked when I saw Kitna last night, I didn’t even know he was in the league. I have no idea where they go with this line. Dallas by 2.5, cuz they're the Cowboys.
Actual line: Dallas by 6.5. Point to Scott.
CAR @ STL. Matt: Cats finally got the monkey off their back, the Rams found out what it's like to lose in the 4th quarter to J-Free. Rams have been great at home, can't trust Carolina just yet. St. Lunatics by -5.5.
Scott: How come St. Louis always gets a Nelly/Lunatics reference, but we never give one to Outkast for a Falcons game, E-40 or Too Short for an Oakland game, or Rick Ross for a Dolphins game? I’m calling you out for Midwest bias. Oh yeah, St. Louis by 3.5.
Actual line: St. Louis by 3. Point to Scott.
MIA @ CIN. Matt: Fish lost a heartbreaker on Sunday, but they are best on the road this year. I'm beginning to think that T.O. teams need him to bitch in press conferences MORE... He was heard loudest in Dallas and Philly, and those were playoff teams... hmmm. I also have this game as a pick.
Scott: I keep hearing all these closet Dolphins fans claiming they got screwed against Pittsburgh. Where did these people come from? And deal with it people, it was the right call. Cincy gets the home team benefit here, Bengals by 2.5.
Actual line: Cincinnati by 2. Point to Scott.
WAS @ DET. Matt: This is not a sexy offence some might have expected with McNabb coming to town, but they always seem to find different ways to win games. Stafford back for Detroit and it couldn't come soon enough. My third pick'em of the week...
Scott: I love when people say the Redskins ‘find ways to win.’ Like having a team like Dallas try running a stupid play at halftime and fumbling into an easy TD, or Green Bay doinking the winning field goal, or Jay Cutler throwing 4 picks to the same dude and still losing by only 3. Washington is terrible, and just incredibly lucky. But they get the benefit this week for playing the Lions, ‘Skins by 3.
Actual line: Detroit by 2.5. Point to Matt.
TEN @ SD. Matt: These two come in headed in opposite directions. Qualcomm still a tough place to play. I foresee a tight defensive game, all the way up til CJ breaks the game open, runs for at least 175. Titans by -4.
Scott: The lines on the Chargers have made no sense this year, and why not go one more week? In fairness, the Chargers dominated the Patriots aside from turnovers. They’re due to win one. San Diego by 2.
Actual line: San Diego by 3.5. Point to Scott.
TB @ ARI. Matt: They're starting to believe in this kid. On the other side, we're probably back to Derek Anderson? Really? Does he need another chance? Ah well... not my team. J-Free by -3.5.
Scott: Can’t we just put Kevin Kolb in Arizona already and be done with it? Or Kerry Collins at least? Arizona by 2.
Actual line: Cardinals by 3. Point to Scott.
MIN @ NE. Matt: Could we see the end of the streak? How many times will I have to hear about this thru the week? Fack! I think he'll play just because the Patriot pass rush isn't exactly the most terrifying in the league, he should be able to keep the jersey clean if he starts - you know he will. Pats by 6.
Scott: To answer your question, exactly 248 times (ok, maybe not EXACTLY, but if you're betting, take the over). This is so silly at this point. There is NOTHING Brett Favre can do where the media will turn on him. Sexually harass a team employee? Shove that under the rug. Then we have Favre playing up these injuries but being too ‘gutsy’ to come out of a game (not gutsy, selfish in the name of a streak).
He’ll throw a TD and he’s jumping around like a college kid. But then he throws a pick-6 and he’ll grab the elbow or limp around on the ankle for sympathy points. Even Cris Collinsworth was blaming Harvin and Moss for Favre’s interceptions, and he’s the most impartial announcer around. Oh well, only 10 more games left to go in this guy’s farewell tour. Oh yeah, Patriots by 3.5.
Actual line: New England by 5. Point to Matt.
SEA @ OAK. Matt: Oakland, and particularly their first half, scared people last week. All of the sudden, Seattle looks like they have a tough, gritty team, I may trust them on the road for the first time in a long time. Home fans should be jumpin. Raiders by -2.5.
Scott: Remember all the talk about how nobody in the NFC West will get to .500? Here’s my not-so-bold prediction: Seattle will go 11-5 and grab a top 2 seed in the conference thanks to their weak schedule and the ineptitude of everyone else in the conference. Oakland by 2.5 as well.
Actual line: Oakland by 2.5. No points awarded.
PIT @ NO. Matt: Everything is falling into place for Pittsburgh right now, and catching the Saints in the corner. If New Orleans wants to regain their pride, they have to do it here. Big stage, top team coming to town. Saints by -2.
Scott: BenR Kelly hasn’t looked sharp since his comeback and nearly cost them the game Sunday with that ill-advised dive. But the Saints are at home, it’s a night game, they’re the champs.. New Orleans by 1.5.
Actual line: Pittsburgh by 1. Point to Scott.
HOU @ IND. Matt: Both teams coming off the bye. Manning's safety net out for the season. Houston looking for the sweep. Colts by -3.
Scott: The injuries are mounting for Indy, and in a tough AFC I could see them missing the playoffs, though who knows with Peyton Manning. Anything is possible and bettors know that, so the Colts are the favorites they probably shouldn’t be. Colts by 3.5.
Actual line: Indy by 5.5. Point to Scott.
Week score: 8-4 Scott
Year to date: 4-2-2 Scott
Less helmet hits this week led to more scoring, and less injuries, and I don't think anyone thinks we saw a poorer product on the field. The only thing I take out of the whole issue is that James Harrison was probably the kid on the playground that threatened to go home if the other boys and girls didn't play the way he wanted.
I'm coming for you like Ricky Bobby took it to Jean Girard, no more cheap half point wins for you this week... suspect...
Scott: We’re like opposites right now in that I can’t buy a betting win (5-9 this week), but I’m owning you here! Truth be told, I’d rather be on your end.
As for less helmet-to-helmet hits, we can agree that’s a good thing. All the defensive players whined, but here’s the thing… The NFL keeps going out of their way to protect OFFENSIVE players. Makes sense, people pay to see the Peyton Mannings and Adrian Petersons. But not one rule that I can think of in years has helped a defense (that I can think of). So now you have offenses that are allowed to run wild, and you can barely touch offensive players.
So what do defensive coaches and coordinators do? They teach you to try to do the one thing that is the great equalizer: Get the other team to turn the ball over. How do you do that? You hit the guy as hard as you can. You stick your helmet in there. And now you’re basically telling the defensive players you can’t do that either. We’re going to see a slew of 42-37 games now. I’m a defensive guy and I know there are people who like points, but that seems a little excessive. Who am I kidding, the NFL would love 66-58 games.
If the NFL wants to get rid of those sort of hits, then it needs to try and even things out for the defenses, or the only thing the defense can do to have a chance is hit hard, which will lead to borderline or sometimes blatantly dirty hits. Rant over. At least until the topic of Brett Favre comes up…
BUF @ KC. Matt: Wow, Buffalo finally gets up for a game and they get hosed by the refs, rough. Now they get the AFC West leading (Can you believe your boys would have had this prefix for at least 9 weeks?? And that is assuming they tank, and THE RAIDERS somehow get hot... hahaha, I love this league) Chiefs. KC has got to be careful this week, the Bills just got their hearts torn out last week, don't know if that helps or hinders them, but they're still winless, so I'm going with helps. Chiefs by *gulp* -11.5.
Scott: KC is winning their division. They’re going to go 12-4 and then lose to somebody like Indy or New England in the 2nd round of the playoffs, mark it down. Their schedule is marshmallowy soft, even though they are likely not one of the top 6 teams in the conference. That said, this line WILL be exactly KC by 7.5 (calling my shot!), because they won’t make the Bills double digit dogs after last week.
Actual line: Kansas City by 7.5. Point to Scott. (Do I get 2 for that one?)
GB @ NYJ. Matt: Despite more people giving more attention to Minnesota losing the Sunday Nighter, going in, that game definitely meant more to the Packers, they had lost 3 of 4 coming in, Rodgers needed to vanquish his sensei, it was must-win. Jets coming off the bye, arguably the best team in the League, and now Revis is 100%. Jets by -7.
Scott: I’m thinking these receivers on other teams are starting to look at a trip to Revis Island as a nice vacation destination. Not only because he’s injured, but because he’s overrated. Not sure what to make of the Packers right now with their injuries, but not the team you want to face banged up.. Jets by 3.
Actual line: Jets by 6. Point to Matt.
DEN @ SF. Matt: This one is technically a night game, live from London. This time we got the Sillynannies playing... the Sillynannies. Always an interesting scenario because there is no home field advantage since the site is neutral. Both teams coming in with some serious baggage (pun definately intended). So the question is, who benefits most from having this game played overseas? They're chanting for Tebow in Denver, and crazy-coach-guy has a 1-win team who lost to a winless team. I'll go with a pick.
Scott: I forgot which game was being played in London (which will be reflected in my line, I counted this as a 49er home game), but so mad you grabbed the Sillynannies reference first. I’d been saving that one all season, then forgot that the London game was this week. One question: How do you send these two teams if you want to sell the NFL in Europe? Can’t we just send them DVD’s of good teams? San Fran by 2.5.
Actual line: Pick. Point to Matt.
JAX @ DAL. Matt: I'm calling this line on the basis that the farmer is still calling the plays under center for the Jags. Jon Kitna for the 'Boys. Dallas by -1.
Scott: I was shocked when I saw Kitna last night, I didn’t even know he was in the league. I have no idea where they go with this line. Dallas by 2.5, cuz they're the Cowboys.
Actual line: Dallas by 6.5. Point to Scott.
CAR @ STL. Matt: Cats finally got the monkey off their back, the Rams found out what it's like to lose in the 4th quarter to J-Free. Rams have been great at home, can't trust Carolina just yet. St. Lunatics by -5.5.
Scott: How come St. Louis always gets a Nelly/Lunatics reference, but we never give one to Outkast for a Falcons game, E-40 or Too Short for an Oakland game, or Rick Ross for a Dolphins game? I’m calling you out for Midwest bias. Oh yeah, St. Louis by 3.5.
Actual line: St. Louis by 3. Point to Scott.
MIA @ CIN. Matt: Fish lost a heartbreaker on Sunday, but they are best on the road this year. I'm beginning to think that T.O. teams need him to bitch in press conferences MORE... He was heard loudest in Dallas and Philly, and those were playoff teams... hmmm. I also have this game as a pick.
Scott: I keep hearing all these closet Dolphins fans claiming they got screwed against Pittsburgh. Where did these people come from? And deal with it people, it was the right call. Cincy gets the home team benefit here, Bengals by 2.5.
Actual line: Cincinnati by 2. Point to Scott.
WAS @ DET. Matt: This is not a sexy offence some might have expected with McNabb coming to town, but they always seem to find different ways to win games. Stafford back for Detroit and it couldn't come soon enough. My third pick'em of the week...
Scott: I love when people say the Redskins ‘find ways to win.’ Like having a team like Dallas try running a stupid play at halftime and fumbling into an easy TD, or Green Bay doinking the winning field goal, or Jay Cutler throwing 4 picks to the same dude and still losing by only 3. Washington is terrible, and just incredibly lucky. But they get the benefit this week for playing the Lions, ‘Skins by 3.
Actual line: Detroit by 2.5. Point to Matt.
TEN @ SD. Matt: These two come in headed in opposite directions. Qualcomm still a tough place to play. I foresee a tight defensive game, all the way up til CJ breaks the game open, runs for at least 175. Titans by -4.
Scott: The lines on the Chargers have made no sense this year, and why not go one more week? In fairness, the Chargers dominated the Patriots aside from turnovers. They’re due to win one. San Diego by 2.
Actual line: San Diego by 3.5. Point to Scott.
TB @ ARI. Matt: They're starting to believe in this kid. On the other side, we're probably back to Derek Anderson? Really? Does he need another chance? Ah well... not my team. J-Free by -3.5.
Scott: Can’t we just put Kevin Kolb in Arizona already and be done with it? Or Kerry Collins at least? Arizona by 2.
Actual line: Cardinals by 3. Point to Scott.
MIN @ NE. Matt: Could we see the end of the streak? How many times will I have to hear about this thru the week? Fack! I think he'll play just because the Patriot pass rush isn't exactly the most terrifying in the league, he should be able to keep the jersey clean if he starts - you know he will. Pats by 6.
Scott: To answer your question, exactly 248 times (ok, maybe not EXACTLY, but if you're betting, take the over). This is so silly at this point. There is NOTHING Brett Favre can do where the media will turn on him. Sexually harass a team employee? Shove that under the rug. Then we have Favre playing up these injuries but being too ‘gutsy’ to come out of a game (not gutsy, selfish in the name of a streak).
He’ll throw a TD and he’s jumping around like a college kid. But then he throws a pick-6 and he’ll grab the elbow or limp around on the ankle for sympathy points. Even Cris Collinsworth was blaming Harvin and Moss for Favre’s interceptions, and he’s the most impartial announcer around. Oh well, only 10 more games left to go in this guy’s farewell tour. Oh yeah, Patriots by 3.5.
Actual line: New England by 5. Point to Matt.
SEA @ OAK. Matt: Oakland, and particularly their first half, scared people last week. All of the sudden, Seattle looks like they have a tough, gritty team, I may trust them on the road for the first time in a long time. Home fans should be jumpin. Raiders by -2.5.
Scott: Remember all the talk about how nobody in the NFC West will get to .500? Here’s my not-so-bold prediction: Seattle will go 11-5 and grab a top 2 seed in the conference thanks to their weak schedule and the ineptitude of everyone else in the conference. Oakland by 2.5 as well.
Actual line: Oakland by 2.5. No points awarded.
PIT @ NO. Matt: Everything is falling into place for Pittsburgh right now, and catching the Saints in the corner. If New Orleans wants to regain their pride, they have to do it here. Big stage, top team coming to town. Saints by -2.
Scott: BenR Kelly hasn’t looked sharp since his comeback and nearly cost them the game Sunday with that ill-advised dive. But the Saints are at home, it’s a night game, they’re the champs.. New Orleans by 1.5.
Actual line: Pittsburgh by 1. Point to Scott.
HOU @ IND. Matt: Both teams coming off the bye. Manning's safety net out for the season. Houston looking for the sweep. Colts by -3.
Scott: The injuries are mounting for Indy, and in a tough AFC I could see them missing the playoffs, though who knows with Peyton Manning. Anything is possible and bettors know that, so the Colts are the favorites they probably shouldn’t be. Colts by 3.5.
Actual line: Indy by 5.5. Point to Scott.
Week score: 8-4 Scott
Year to date: 4-2-2 Scott
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