Week 4 NFL picks

I'm feeling like the character Knish in Rounders right now. I'm just grinding along, taking small profits by the week, avoiding going for the big score. This has been a tough NFL season to say the least. Vegas has done a much better job this year with their early lines, taking away the first couple of profitable weeks for the smart bettor. Week 4 is the first week of bye weeks, so 2 less games to screw up this week. Away we go!!

Last week: 10-6
YTD: 27-21

Broncos (+6.5) at Tennessee - I think this line is a little low. Denver is a little better than people give them credit for. They played tough against Indy last week but simply didn't have the talent to keep up. The Titans looked medirocre last week other than the Giants turning the ball over at bad times. Even though they won by 19 over the Giants, they were outgained by exactly 200 yards. Pick: Denver

Baltimore (+1) at Pittsburgh - The Steelers try to go 4-0 without Ben Roethlisberger. Charlie Batch gets another start at QB before Big Ben returns. I just haven't been that impressed with the Ravens this season, and I think the home team squeaks one out in a defensive battle. Pick: Pittsburgh

Cincinnati (-3) at Cleveland - The traditional stinky line, with a decent team only giving 3 points. But let's look a little closer. Cleveland has lost their 3 games by a total of 12 points, and it's still Carson Palmer. I don't trust him and because of it, this game is a little closer than it looks. When in doubt take the points. Pick: Cleveland

Detroit (+14) at Green Bay - No Matt Stafford, possibly no Jahvid Best for Detroit. And I don't think Shaun Hill can keep up with the Packers' aerial attack. Pick: Green Bay

Carolina (+13.5) at New Orleans - Drew Brees is banged up, as is Pierre Thomas. Reggie Bush is out. The Saints just went and signed 46 year old relic John Karney to be their kicker, giving me hope I can still make the NFL. Carolina has lost all 3 of their games by exactly 13 points this year, so let's say they cover this one by the skin of their teeth. Pick: Carolina

San Francisco (+7) at Atlanta - Atlanta is probably the 3rd best team in the NFC at this point behind the Packers and the Saints, and they just beat the Saints on the road. San Fran is free falling after being the de facto choice to win the putrid NFC West. This week, Atlanta shows that they deserve to be mentioned in the favorites to represent the conference in the Super Bowl. Pick: Atlanta

Seattle (-1.5) at St. Louis - Seattle has dominated this matchup in recent years, having not lost in the last 5 years to the Rams. There are a ton of injuries on both teams in this one (note to the NFL - we don't need more games!!). I'm going to go with the Seahawks' terrible road record and the fact they're playing at 10 AM their time over their good record against the Rams. Sam Bradford moves the Rams into 1st place in the division. Pick: St. Louis.

NY Jets (-5.5) at Buffalo - This one lands in the classic Vegas 'we don't know' zone of 4.5, 5 or 5.5 points. The Bills proved last week that anyone can move the ball on New England. They won't do the same against the Jets. And NY's offense might be better than we give it credit for, as Mark Sanchez has looked surprisingly competent the last 2 games. Pick: Jets

Indianapolis (-7) at Jacksonville - The Jaguars always play Indy tough, especially at home. But as I learned 2 weeks ago, you don't go against Peyton Manning. Last week he was throwing TD passes to guys pulled off the practice squad. While I realize one of these road favorites has to kill everyone's 3 team teasers, I'm still going with the AFC Champs. Pick: Indianapolis

Houston (-3) at Oakland - We're getting up to the smelliest line of the week, but this one is close. Andre Johnson is questionable with an ankle (TM Al Michaels), but even if he plays you have to figure Nnamdi Asomugha shuts him down (good luck with that one, spell checker!). The public is all over the Texans in this one, and that usually means one thing. Pick: Oakland

Washington (+5.5) at Philadelphia - Another of Vegas's Whiskey Tango Foxtrot lines. We all know the story will be about Donovan McNabb coming home, and of course we can't forget Mike Vick's resurgence. I'm going to doubt Vick for one more game though as these 2 teams always play each other tight, as McNabb has practiced against this defense for years. Pick: Washington

Arizona (+9) at San Diego - Yes, San Diego hasn't looked too hot this season, but both of their losses have come on the road, and one was in a hurricane. Arizona is just awful, do not believe their 2-1 record. Pick: San Diego

Chicago (+3.5) at NY Giants - And here is your smelly, Fisherman's Wharf on a 110-degree day line. The Giants, limping in at 1-2, are more than field goal favorites to the 3-0 unbeaten Bears. But as I pointed out in the Titans write-up, the Giants dominated the Titans statistically except for some dumb turnovers. And the Bears should rightfully be 1-2. So if these two teams were both 1-2, this line seems about right, doesn't it? Also, everyone will be on the Bears here because of the hook on the line (the extra half point). Pick: NY Giants

New England (-1) at Miami - New England can't stop anything on defense. The Wildcat has always given them fits. Miami will have a crazy Monday night home crowd. Who will run the ball for the Patriots as their backfield depth has taken a beating recently with injuries? Miami had a bad 4th quarter and a few bad luck plays, otherwise they'd be perfect at 3-0. I think they make it 3-1 on Monday night.