Week 5 NFL picks

Last week: 8-6
Season record: 35-27

Jacksonville (+1) at Buffalo – The Bills are favored for seemingly the first time since Drew Bledsoe was their QB. Jacksonville will be the popular pick here as they just beat Indy at home and Buffalo stinks. But this screams to be one of those games where the Bills win. This is a perfect letdown game for Jacksonville, on the road after a big win. And Buffalo has to win at some point. They’re bad, but not 0-16 bad. Pick: Buffalo.

Kansas City (+7) at Indianapolis – I can’t figure out if Vegas is trying to bait everyone with getting 7 points for a 3-0 team, or trying to get everyone on a public team giving up only 7 points at home. Indy is banged up, and the Chiefs are coming off a bye week. But I went against Peyton Manning 2 weeks ago and lost big. I’m going to take my chances he’s going to take last week’s loss out on the Chiefs this week. Pick: Indianapolis

Tampa Bay (+6.5) at Cincinnati – Tampa is another team coming in off a bye week. I just refuse to believe Cincinnati is a good team. This falls mainly on Carson Palmer. The Bucs defense is still fdecent, even if Charlie Batch lit them up 2 weeks ago. For what its worth, the Bengals haven’t beaten the Bucs since 1989, though they’ve only played 5 times since then. Pick: Tampa Bay

Green Bay (-2.5) at Washington – The Redskins always seem to raise their games for the elite teams, but they just played an emotional game against Philadelphia. The Packers have their weaknesses, especially the lack of a running game (why they weren’t in on Marshawn Lynch is a mystery). But you have to put up 30 points to beat the Packers, unless they beat themselves with penalties like they did against the Bears. I can’t see Washington keeping up. Pick: Green Bay

St. Louis (+3) at Detroit – Both of these teams have been money against the spread, each going 3-1 and both of their losses were by 1 point ATS. The Rams come in winning their last 2 games, and this seems like a natural letdown spot, as Sam Bradford will have a tougher game on the road. But St. Louis’ defense is much better than that of the Lions. This should be a very close game, and when in doubt take the points. Pick: St. Louis

Denver (+7) at Baltimore – Denver comes in with the #1 ranked pass offense behind John Elway. What? Kyle Orton is their QB? And they still have the best passing offense? This shows why you shouldn’t really put much stock into stats after only 4 games. A team like Baltimore is just the sort of team to shake the sample size out of those stats. I don't see Denver having a 2nd consecutive good week on the road. Pick: Baltimore

NY Giants (+3) at Houston – The Giants looked like they were back last week with their 9 first half sacks of Jay Cutler. But many of those were the result of Cutler holding the ball way too long, and I don’t see Matt Schaub making the same mistake. Andre Johnson (ankle) and Brian Cushing (suspension) return for Houston, while Ahmad Bradshaw looks like will likely sit this one out. Pick: Houston.

Chicago (+1) at Carolina – Speaking of Jay Cutler, he sits this one out with a concussion. This is your requisite “COLLINS! CLAUSEN! It’s the NFL on FOX!!” joke for the week. I don’t know what to expect out of Todd Collins, but the Chicago defense should eat up Jimmy Clausen, who is completing less than 50% of his passes so far. The over/under is 33 on this one, and it might be too high. Pick: Chicago

Atlanta (-3) at Cleveland – Aside from a thrashing of Arizona, the Falcons haven’t looked very good but have done just enough to have a 3-1 record. The Browns may have found their secret weapon in… Peyton Hillis? The Browns play their games tough, and this line is just low enough to put it in the Whiskey Tango Foxtrot category, getting people to take the favorites laying only a field goal. Pick: Cleveland.

New Orleans (-6.5) at Arizona – Admittedly, the Saints haven’t looked very good yet, and are suffering some Super Bowl hangover. They have Christopher Ivory and Ladell Betts running the ball. And everyone is going to be on them this week. The Cardinals are trotting out Max Hall over Derek Anderson this week. But here’s the thing. The Cardinals have been outgained by 609 yards on offense the last 3 weeks. No matter how hard I try, I can’t find a decent reason to pick them. Pick: New Orleans

Tennessee (+7) at Dallas – This line seems to be begging people to take Tennessee. But at the same time, the Cowboys are always a little overvalued, so maybe its to be expected. Dallas is coming off their bye week. Vince Young returns to Texas. I’m torn. Normally I’d take the points, but the Titans have played badly 3 weeks in a row, even though the Giants handed them one of those games. Pick: Dallas

San Diego (-6) at Oakland – San Diego always dominates the Raiders, and it’s October so it’s time for the Chargers to turn it on. Philip Rivers is on pace for a little over 5,300 yards passing, and even though the Chargers have lost both their road games thus far, they’ve statistically dominated the other team and lost because of special teams. Pick: San Diego

Philadelphia (+3) at San Francisco – It’s definitely a downgrade from Michael Vick to Kevin Kolb, but this spread still seems weird considering the Niners are 0-4. The Niners have only played one game at home, and almost upset the Saints in that matchup. Kolb looked pretty terrible last week, even if he came with Jason Avant’s fingertips of pulling out an improbable victory. The Niners are too good not to win at some point. Pick: San Francisco

Minnesota (+3.5) at NY Jets – Let’s start out with a disclaimer: These are probably my 2 least favorite teams in the league. I also hate Dallas, but that’s because of idiot Dallas fans, not the Cowboys themselves. I can’t stand Rex Ryan, I can’t stand Brett Favre. The Vikings come in rested off a bye week. Darrelle Revis comes back. Santonio Holmes is back. Brett Favre has had some personal drama this week with his man-meat pics being released, and he returns to face the Jets in his first game since holding the Jets hostage for a season. Oh yeah, and some guy named Randy Moss got traded to the Vikings. So there are stories abound in this one. But this line smells funny to me as people love to bet on Favre and the Moss trade. So I’m laying the points on the hot team. Pick: NY Jets