Week 6 NFL picks

Week 5: 5-9
YTD: 40-36

The dogs are barking loud the last few weeks. They are 47-29 against the spread in 2010 and that rate is even higher the last few weeks. I made the mistake of thinking the correction week was coming last week, and a Brett Favre pick-6 was all that stood between me and double digit losses. The week where all the favorites win is on its way. It might be this week even. But for now, you at least have to ride some of the dogs.

Atlanta (+2.5) at Philadelphia – If I had to bet my life on one team to come out of the NFL, right now it’s the Falcons. That’s not saying a lot, as I still don’t think they’re a top 5 team in the whole league. I don’t trust Kevin Kolb yet. Philly is one of those teams that is beating up bad teams and losing against good teams. Atlanta is a good team. Pick: Atlanta

Cleveland (+14.5) at Pittsburgh – The Browns are not as terrible as some might think. They’re feeding Colt McCoy to the wolves, er Steelers, this week, but is he really any worse than Jake Delhomme or Seneca Wallace? Cleveland has only lost 1 game by double digits, that being by 10 to Atlanta thanks to a Delhomme pick-6 at the end of the game. There will be hype on this being Ben Roethlisberger’s first game back and there will be some rust. And let’s not forget about Cleveland’s new secret weapon, the Great White Hope, Peyton Hillis. Pick: Cleveland

Seattle (+6) at Chicago – Should Chicago really be laying 6 points to anyone? We know Seattle is terrible on the road. Jay Cutler has had 2 weeks to shake out the cobwebs the Giants gave him. I like Matt Forte to have a big game in this one. Pick: Chicago

Detroit (+10) at NY Giants – Possibly no Calvin Johnson in this one, meaning if the Giants can control Jahvid Best, they can tee off on Shaun Hill. I think the Giants rely on the Bradshaw-Jacobs combo to control the clock and win this one fairly easily, there's bound to be some letdown from the Lions. Pick: NY Giants.

Baltimore (+3) at New England – This line makes no sense, as Baltimore is looking to challenge for the title right now. New England is one-dimensional and the Ravens kill teams like this (like they did last week with Denver). But the Patriots have had 2 weeks to prepare for this one, and it’s a revenge game from last year’s playoffs. Plus, everyone and their dog are going to be on Baltimore here. Time for a hunch pick. Pick: New England

San Diego (-9) at St. Louis – The Rams looked terrible giving the Lions their greatest margin of victory in well, forever. Ok that’s not true but it sure felt like it. San Diego couldn’t beat Oakland on the road, and they’ve looked bad in every road game. This is an early start and West Coast teams usually don’t play well in these. Pick: St. Louis

Miami (+3.5) at Green Bay – Aaron Rodgers looks to be playing, but last week proved that the Packers can’t run the ball. Julius Jones and his pack a day habit won’t help that. Miami comes in off 2 tough division losses and a bye. Miami is 2-0 on the road and seems to play better away from home, but their special teams is terrible. Even so, I think their defense keeps this one close enough. Pick: Miami

New Orleans (-4) at Tampa Bay – Have we figured out yet that Tampa Bay isn’t that bad? And that New Orleans can’t run the ball? And that Josh Freeman can make plays? The Super Bowl mojo is gone for the Saints. Pick: Tampa Bay

Kansas City (+4.5) at Houston – This might be KC’s 2nd to last tough game of the year, with the other one being on the road in San Diego. The Texans need this game more., as the Chiefs have lots of cupcakes to look forward to down the line. Pick: Houston

Oakland (+6.5) at San Francisco – Do I even need to get into this one? This has to be the first time ever a 0-5 team has been favored by almost a touchdown. When the fans want David Carr, your season is sunk. Pick: Oakland

Dallas (+1) at Minnesota – The Desperation Bowl. Minnesota comes in on a short week thanks to the Monday game. Dallas comes in off a spanking at the hands of the Titans. Neither team has done anything inspiring to make me feel confident in either of them. But Tony Romo doesn’t have a media circus on him, doesn’t have questionable pictures of him floating around and didn’t take a football in the groin this week. Pick: Dallas

NY Jets (-3) at Denver – The Jets are looking more and more like a 12-4 team to me. Good defensive teams eat up one-dimensional offenses like Denver. If the Jets are for real, they take this game. I think they are. Pick: NY Jets

Indianapolis (-3) at Washington – The ‘Skins are a couple of weird bounces away from being 1-4. They play hard but the talent isn’t there. Without Joseph Addai, the Colts will struggle, but it’s Peyton Manning. In a night game. You don’t go against him. Pick: Indianapolis

Tennessee (-3) at Jacksonville – Two teams who make me change my opinion every week. But it’s Monday Night Football, and I think the stars come to play. Vince Young + Chris Johnson > David Garrard and Mo-Jo Drew. Pick: Tennessee