Week 5 - Guess the lines with Matty K

Matt: First quarter-of-the-season picks rundown: win (11-5), loss (6-10), loss (7-9), loss (5-8, MNF pending). I’ve somehow managed to blow the traditionally easiest weeks of the schedule.

We’ve been carrying a loss with our bets, and my Oakland prop bet is knocking on death’s door (I need Oakland to win 6 games this season… they’re 1-3… and have been able to tease me to the effect of they could have been 3-1… The greatest trick Jason Campbell ever pulled, was convincing some people he could ball… damn)
Time to dust myself off and carry on… I’m 2-up in our guess the lines game… WE CAN BUILD ON THIS!!!

Scott: On the contrary, I’ve been slowly getting better, though Miami's special teams gave me an 8-6 week instead of a much nicer 9-5. I think I had a lot of teams pegged poorly coming into the season (your best chance to make money before the lines adjust), but I’ve been pretty good at reading the smelly lines in Weeks 3 and 4. We’re learning that parity is in full effect this year, and this week’s lines prove it. I’m guessing only one double digit spread, and even that might be a stretch.

JAX @ BUF. Matt: Jacksonville coming off of a big win at home versus Indy, Buffalo has been just bad bad bad. I don’t think anyone is convinced the Jags are any good, but they’ll get some respect at 2-2, and facing an inferior opponent. This game has Gus written all over it, I’m warming up the popcorn. Jags by -4.

Scott: I haven’t figured out the head-to-head games yet, but is Indy technically LAST in this division? Yeah, I don’t know what to make of Jacksonville, and I don’t think anyone else does either. This seems like one of those games Buffalo could get for one of their token wins. Jags by 2.5

Actual line: Jags by 1.5 on our official source, though this line has been everywhere between Jags by 2.5 to Buffalo by 1 from what I’ve seen. Point to Scott.

DEN @ BAL. Matt: Both teams coming off of big, late-game wins, on the road. Baltimore is clearly the better team, but they still haven’t killed anybody yet. Tennessee beat themselves last week, so I don’t give the Broncos too much credit. Ravens by -6.

Scott: Denver’s passing game might be for real. If this can somehow lead to Brandon Lloyd’s rap career taking off, then that’s the greatest accomplishment Kyle Orton will have ever made. I also took Baltimore by 6.

Actual line: Ravens by 7. No point awarded.

KC @ IND. Matt: The last undefeated team versus a .500 squad who are 0-2 w/in their division. What were the odds against that statement favouring the Chiefs a month ago? Maybe…+7500? Higher? Aside from those two divisional games, the Colts have trounced their opponents (Giants and Broncos), and realistically it should be no different here. This KC team has got some mojo working for them, and will have had 2 full weeks of rest and energy build-up. Had this game been in KC, I would have loved them as a dog. Colts by -7.5.

Scott: I’m worried what mojo the Chiefs had was destroyed by the bye week. I think their only hope here is if this is your Gus Johnson game, and he announces the upset as only Gus can. Colts by 7.

Actual line: Colts by 8. Point to Matt.

GB @ WAS. Matt: So the Skins are leading their division (by way of a 2-0 divisional record). This is definitely getting the A-squad from Fox Sports (Aik n the Buck) – which would translate to the D-squad if they were on CBS. I’m not really speaking too much about the matchup because I have no idea where this line will fall. Packers by -2.

Scott: I’d love to see what Joe Buck would do if he were assigned to a Carolina-Arizona matchup, because I think he’d put the Mel Gibson audio tapes to shame. I’m pretty sure he has it in his contract he can only go to like 5 cities. I'd say Troy Aikman would do the same, but sometimes I think he's still suffering from the after-effects of that last concussion that knocked him out of the league. I might need a speech pathologist to determine if its the Southern drawl or if he's slurring his words. Oh yeah, the game. Does anyone really buy that the Skins are any good when they’re not in some sort of rivalry game? Packers by 3.5.

Actual line: Packers by 2.5. Point to Matt.

STL @ DET. Matt: Gotta feel for the Lions.. even with Shaun effing Hill under center, they look like they have a potent offence, and their defense is maturing with each game. And then here comes last year’s scum team, on a 2-game win streak, and beaming with confidence. Even the easy games don’t seem so easy, not when you’re 0-4. The Rams have not won on the road yet (but are 4-0 ATS, the only such team), and Detroit should give them a battle. Lions by -2.5.

Scott: I’m officially hopping on the Rams bandwagon to win the NFC West. Unless Mike Singletary does something off the charts crazy, in which case I might go with San Francisco again. And frankly, that’s not an out of the realm possibility, and something we should all hope for. All I know is that Singletary is possibly messing it up for Ray Lewis to be a head coach one day, and that's a real shame. Lions by 2.5.
Actual line: Lions by 3. No point awarded.

CHI @ CAR. Matt: Bears got a reality check on Sunday Night, but it was probably more their O-line getting victimized by a rejuvenated NY pass rush. Rest assured, the Panthers can’t bring that kind of heat. They’ll have to rely on the run game, and it is not easy to run on the Bears. However in one game, the Bears lost some swagger with Cutler going down – now they have a kid named Hanie running the offence, until further notice. Chi-town by -5.

Scott: I’m going to assume that they can exhume Todd Collins’ body from the Meadowlands turf (if not for the new stadium, I could make the requisite Jimmy Hoffa joke here) and get him out there Sunday, but Cutler doesn’t make it with the new concussion rules. Bears by 4.

Actual line: Bears by 1.5. Point to Scott.

TB @ CIN. Matt: I can say with the utmost sincerity, J-Free and the Funky Pirates are the more entertaining team in this matchup. Who’d a thunk the Browns would be the team to snap Cincy’s divisional dominance?? Tampa coming off the bye, and their first loss, to the Steelers, should still have confidence going forward, but won’t get much respect. Inter-conference will also keep this low. Bengals by -3.5.

Scott: I’m just happy that Carson Palmer and T.O. had a huge game at the same time, but yet it takes place in a loss to the lowly Browns. Everyone thinks they’re good again. They’re not. Bengals by 4.

Actual line: Bengals by 6.5. Point to Scott.

ATL @ CLE. Matt: I don’t know what to take from that 9ers/Falcons game… ATL should bounce back, and Vegas should chalk that Browns win up to divisional competitiveness, and that alone. I do think “John Secada” Wallace is the right choice for the Brown’s moving forward, but they’ll still struggle against good teams like the Falcons. ATL by -8.

Scott: I’m starting to worry that the Falcons like to play down to their competition. I’ve got this a lot lower because of that fact, and the Browns have been tough at home. Atlanta by 4.

Actual line: Atlanta by 3. Point to Scott.

NYG @ HOU. Matt: H-town is finding ways to win, and the Giants seem to have their pass-rush groove back. Eli is still not fixed however. Houston should roll them at home. Texans by -4.5.

Scott: Two teams with great pass rushes here. The Giants always get too much respect though. Texans by 3.

Actual line: Texans by 3. Point to Scott.

NO @ ARI. Matt: Just last year, we were expecting 35+ from each of these teams every Sunday. This season has been far from prolific, to say the least. New Orleans D is keeping them in games. Saints by -3.5.

Scott: It’s sad when you have guys like Derek Anderson and Bruce Gradkowski starting in the NFL when perfectly good players like Kurt Warner are too busy dancing on reality shows. Yeah, this was a good game last year. But the Cardinals are terrible, I don’t care if they have 2 wins. New Orleans by 10.5.

Actual line: Saints by 7. No point awarded, as we both blew this one equally.

TEN @ DAL. Matt: They don’t get much tougher than the loss the Titans took vs the Broncos. However, definitely not enough to derail the offence, you have to think that CJ is absolutely teeming right now, and Vince has emerged the rock of that team. I think Vegas is seeing these teams as equals right now. ‘Boys by -2.5.

Scott: You don’t want to hear this, but I think Chris Johnson might be either injured or done. He’s just not the same this year, and with his workload last season and body frame, it’s totally conceivable that he has an off-year. I'm guessing injured though because of his age. Dallas by 3.5.

Actual line: Dallas by 6.5. Point to Scott.

SD @ OAK. Matt: Week 1, MNF, last year, the Chargers went into Oakland and almost lost, Oakland easily covered a big line. I still think Jason Campbell gives this team the best chance to win. SD hasn’t won away from home yet. SD by -9.5.

Scott: I couldn’t decide which side of the fence they’d put this game on in Vegas. It will be either 4 points or 6 points. I’m going to take San Diego’s road record into account and go Chargers by 4.

Actual line: Chargers by 6. Point to Scott.

Sunday Night Football. PHI @ SF. Matt: I don’t think a primetime showcase is what either of these teams think is the answer right now. San Fran is perplexing teams like Tennessee did last year, starting out 0-6. The 9ers covered in their week 2 primetime game versus the Saints. Stability is key for the Eagles, they need a healthy Mike Vick out there Sunday night, and given the situation, I think they’ll do everything possible to make sure he is. They know this is a road game, they need to have. Eagles by -1.

Scott: I’m going to assume that Vick is playing in this one for now. San Fran seems to get up for the big games, but hasn’t found a way to win yet. I’m going Philly by 3 and I don’t think anyone knows where to put this line with Vick’s status up in the air.

Actual line: 49ers by 3, as Vick appears to be sitting this one out from all reports. Point to Matt.

Monday Night Football. Matt: MIN @ NYJ. Is this Brett’s first return to NY? The Jet’s only loss was by 1 point. This team is just winning games and proving the talking heads correct for the time being. First venture outside their conference. Vikes benefitted most from the bye week. I don’t have the stats handy, but you know what #4 does on Monday Nights, it’s well documented. I think this game could be good. Jets by -4.

Scott: A game between 2 of the teams Brett Favre has held hostage at some point. People love to bet on Favre. And the Jets don’t get the same NY love that the Giants get in the lines. Jets by 2.5.

Actual line: Jets by 4. Point to Matt.

Final week score: 7-4 Scott.
Season score: 2-1 Matt.