Week 7 NFL picks

Last week: 4-8-2
YTD: 44-44-2

You're reading this to see who my picks are? Hey I'm just happy you're reading this barely read blog, but I hope you're just taking the opposite of whatever I say. How I'm .500 on the picks is beyond me.. but in the gambling world, .500 means you lose money.

I'm due for a big week, right? Right? As an aside, your better bets this week are likely the over/under bets. With the new emphasis on head shots and unnecessarily hard tackles, the defenses could be a little tentative this week. While I'd say jump on the over, don't think Vegas hasn't thought of this already. The O/U lines will reflect the changes, and if anything, I think the unders are the play this week.

Jacksonville (+9.5) at Kansas City - There's rumours that that the Jaguars may dust off future Hall of Famer Todd Bouman for this one with David Garrard out and the Senator hurting. Whoever starts, 10 points is too much to lay with the Chiefs. You're still relying on Matt Cassel. I loved the Chiefs at the opening line of 4, but take the dogs here. And yes, I'm kind of hoping for a reverse jinx here and a crushing Chiefs victory. Pick: Jacksonville

Cleveland (+13) at New Orleans - Lost in last week's loss to Pittsburgh was that Colt McCoy completed almost 70% of his passes and threw for 281 yards against probably the top defense in the league. Combine that with Peyton Hillis and I think the Browns can keep this one close enough to cover. The Saints finally busted out last week against Tampa but I want to see it for one more week before we can declare them as being back. Pick: Cleveland

Philadelphia (+3) at Tennessee - One quick caveat: I've had trouble with both these teams all year. Both teams come in fairly hot, but Tennessee hasn't impressed me, losing the yardage battles to Dallas and the Giants but getting the win. Since Philly is without their deep threat in DeSean Jackson and the Titans seem to find ways to beat the NFC East, let's roll the dice with them. Pick: Tennessee

Cincinnati (+3.5) at Atlanta - I've been hyping Atlanta as the best team in the NFC for a few weeks now, and they keep disappointing me. I've also been saying the Bengals are done, and they keep proving me right. But why do I get a feeling this one is a field goal game? Pick: Cincinnati

Washington (+3) at Chicago - Chicago can't protect Jay Cutler. The Redskins defense gets a little more credit than it should, but they find ways to win and almost found a way to beat Peyton Manning in a night game. I can't bring myself to take the team that just lost to Seattle at home. Pick: Washington

Pittsburgh (-3) at Miami - Miami is our first home dog of the day, but they haven't won yet at home this year. This is one of those games where the team I think is the favorite grinds out a victory over a scrappy team, and proves they are a team to be reckoned with. Also, I think they eat a QB like Chad Henne alive. Pick: Pittsburgh

St. Louis (+3) at Tampa Bay - The last road game the Rams played, they got spanked 44-6 by the Lions. I can't trust them on the road yet. Pick: Tampa Bay

Buffalo (+13) at Baltimore - There is no way the Ravens lose this game, but this game screams 'BACK DOOR COVER!' The Bills can move the ball under Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Ravens' weakness is their secondary. I can see the Ravens up 17 and the Bills driving for a cheap score with a minute to play here. Pick: Buffalo

San Francisco (-2) at Carolina - There always has to be a dud somewhere on the schedule. This is another game I really don't know where to go. In this case, I'm going to go against the QB who is hitting barely 40% of his passes in Matt Moore. Which probably means this is the game DeAngelo Williams finally does something. Let's not discount the 'West Coast team playing an early game' factor, though that didn't bother Seattle last week. Pick: San Francisco

Arizona (+6.5) at Seattle - Arizona has won 6 of their last 7 against Seattle. Max Hall showed a semblance of a pulse in upsetting the Saints, and they're coming off a bye week. This feels like a field goal game. Pick: Arizona

Oakland (+8.5) at Denver - Denver has had a brutal schedule lately and hung tough in some of those games. The away team in this matchup has covered the last 4 games. Oakland burned me last week, but I can't take a 2-4 team giving up almost double digits. Pick: Oakland

New England (+3) at San Diego - This is probably the biggest WTF line of the week. The Chargers have looked awful. Everyone is going to be on the Patriots in this one, coming off a tough victory over the Ravens and with a nice 4-1 record. If they're going to give me a WTF line, sometimes it's best to make the WTF pick. Pick: San Diego

Minnesota (+2.5) at Green Bay - Did you hear this Britfav guy used to play for Green Bay? The Packers are beat up. The Vikings, while not as good as last year, are better than their record. Favre likes to annoy me and win these games so the announcers can verbally felate him. Pick: Minnesota

NY Giants (+3) at Dallas - So the 4-2 team visits the 1-4 team, and the 4-2 team GETS points? And the Giants have covered 4 of the last 5 times these teams have played? Seems too easy. The Cowboys are desperate, their season is on the line, it's Monday Night Football.. and isn't Eli Manning due for an Eli Manning game? He's only had the one against Tennessee, and we don't want anyone going 5-2 in the NFC. They might look like a contender that way. Pick: Dallas