Last week: 6-6-1
YTD: 65-62-3
Carolina (+7) at Tampa Bay: Is there anything to like about this Carolina team? Really, anything? Carolina is the only team the Bucs have beaten by more than 7 though this season. Something fishy here I can’t put my finger on, maybe Carolina gets a return TD for a backdoor cover or something. Pick: Carolina
Detroit (+3) at Buffalo: With Matthew Stafford out again, everyone thinks this is the week the Bills finally win. They said the same thing last week against the Bears. And Shaun Hill can move the ball. I'm not going to try and be a hero and predict Buffalo’s first win on this one. Pick: Detroit
Houston (+1) at Jacksonville: Jacksonville off the bye (screw you and your bye week theories, Bill Simmons!), Houston fading fast. This one just seems too easy as Houston is the more public team. Pick: Jacksonville
Tennessee (-2) at Miami: Miami can’t win at home, and they have Chad Pennington coming in, so that means they can’t throw or run the ball now. Desperate move by Tony Sparano. Chris Johnson is due for a big game. Pick: Tennessee
Minnesota (-1) at Chicago: Speak what you will of Kansas City and its easy schedule, but at least they don’t luck into victories the way the Bears do. The Vikings seem to be united in their quest to throw Brad Childress under a bus (literally, not figuratively. They hate the guy.), but they are using it as a rallying cry. More Brett Favre heroic story telling! Pick: Minnesota
NY Jets (-3) at Cleveland: I’ll make it easy for you Rex Ryan. If you can’t figure out how to take apart Colt McCoy with your vaunted defense, you’re not really a Super Bowl contender. Pick: NY Jets
Cincinnati (+7) at Indianapolis: When you take away his weapons, Peyton Manning will play things tight and not take too many chances and do just enough to win. In this case, that means not covering the spread. And how is Terrell Owens the top rated fantasy receiver? That’s why they call it fantasy football, kids. Pick: Cincinnati
Kansas City (-1) at Denver: I hate the way the Chiefs are playing right now, but the Broncos are too much of a mess for me to take them. Pick: Kansas City
Dallas (+14) at NY Giants – Jason Garrett had the Cowboys wearing pads at practice this week. How revolutionary! It's like he invoked the spirit of Vince Lombardi and George Halas. All is well in Cowboys land! And why do I know Buck and Aikman end up doing this game over the far superior Seattle-Arizona battle for first place in the NFC West? East Coast bias, I tell ya. Pick: Dallas.
St. Louis (+6) at San Francisco – The Young Rams aren’t good enough on the road yet, even against Crazy Janitor Mike Singletary, who have played better than their record. Plus, a 49er victory puts all the teams in the division closer. And who doesn’t want to see a team with 6 wins get into the playoffs? Pick: San Francisco
Seattle (+3) at Arizona – You know how little faith I have in Charlie Whitehurst (I’m taking away the Chaz until further notice, you don’t deserve it Charlie) when I’m picking Derek Anderson over you. Pick: Arizona
New England (+4.5) over Pittsburgh – The two best coaches in the league (with apologies to Sean Payton) go at it here. This one just feels like it has to be a field goal game. And you know Belichick won’t stand for two losses in a row. Pick: New England
Philadelphia (-3) at Washington – Donovan McNabb already got his revenge on Philly earlier this season. It doesn’t happen again. Washington will fall off eventually and then maybe people will believe me that Mike Shanahan isn't a good coach any more. Pick: Philadelphia
Friday, November 12, 2010
Thursday, November 11, 2010
Random Thursday thoughts..
Some random Thursday thoughts before the weekend…
I like the Falcons (-1) tonight. They’re just so good at home (18-1 under Matty Ice), and these short weeks tend to favor the home teams as they don’t have to use up what little time there is to prepare on travelling. I also think both teams pound the run tonight because of the short week and you’re going to see the under hit pretty easy. Atlanta 17, Baltimore 13.
I haven’t been keeping up with my reviews on Dexter and Boardwalk Empire lately. Sorry if you were tuning in to read those, but Sunday-Monday nights are crowded with football and doing fatherly things with the toddler. Often times I don’t get these shows watched until the middle of the week and it seems pointless to keep going. I’ll try to give some thoughts on them when I get the chance, but don’t expect reviews. My quick thoughts on the last few episodes though as we head towards the end of the season for both shows:
I might be out on Boardwalk Empire next season. I love the grandeur of it all, with all the gorgeous 1920’s outfits and buildings and such. I love Nucky, and Steve Buscemi has proven he can carry this show. But there are just WAY too many fringe characters floating around who I don’t really care about. Anything with the FBI agent almost gets tuned out, and the same with Nucky’s brother. There was a lesbian scene last week and I still have no idea who the two participants were. (Side note: Thanks to HBO for all the gratuitous nudity in this show. It really makes up for all the lag time. Even the Scottish lady got naked Almost makes me want to go back to the 1920’s, it seems to be an epic time for nudity, which is weird since nobody could drink) But until they cut back and have only about 3-4 main characters, it will continue to be dizzying to watch this show. Especially since everyone is dressed alike. Can we at least get the characters some nameplates?
As for Dexter, it started off slow, but the last few episodes have been crazy and have me excited to see how it turns out. I was leery when they said there wouldn’t be a primary serial killer for Dexter to go after, but they’ve proven me wrong. Michael C. Hall seems totally re-energized this season and even the additions of Julia Stiles, Robocop and Angelina Jolie’s first husband haven’t slowed anything down. Finally, we’re seeing a dilemma for Quinn as he falls for Deb and isn’t sure how much further he wants to investigate Dexter, and he actually comes across as likeable. And they’ve focused less on Batista and LaGuerta, always a good thing. Though it is creepy watching Dexter and Lumen hang out in Dexter’s old house, especially the bathtub scene. I hope they don’t take the easy way out and have these two fall for each other. The uneasy partnership is paying off right now in terms of plot and I don’t think we need to mess with that.
How about those Miami Heat? Can we just call them The Big Two now and stop talking about Chris Bosh as part of the superstars? Seriously, 14 points and 5 boards a game? This guy is becoming another Antawn Jamison, a guy who piles up stats on bad teams but shrinks to the background when he plays with better players on better teams. Right now, I still like Boston in that conference as they have Garnett, Big Baby Davis and the O’Neals (plus Kendrick Perkins returning in February) to throw at a suspect Miami frontcourt.
Last, the great Dave Niehaus passed away last night. For those who don’t know, he was the play-by-play guy for the Seattle Mariners, and had been doing that job since the inception of the team in 1977. As somebody who watches around 100 Mariners games a season, this has meant hundreds upon hundreds hours the last few summers have been spent listening to this man. His way of storytelling would make you feel like he was part of your family, and when you spend that much time listening to somebody, he essentially becomes extended family. The Mariners and the baseball world lost a great one. I never understood how Philadelphia or Detroit or St. Louis fans felt when Harry Kalas or Ernie Harwell or Jack Buck passed away, but now I see how it can affect them. RIP Dave, you will be missed.
I like the Falcons (-1) tonight. They’re just so good at home (18-1 under Matty Ice), and these short weeks tend to favor the home teams as they don’t have to use up what little time there is to prepare on travelling. I also think both teams pound the run tonight because of the short week and you’re going to see the under hit pretty easy. Atlanta 17, Baltimore 13.
I haven’t been keeping up with my reviews on Dexter and Boardwalk Empire lately. Sorry if you were tuning in to read those, but Sunday-Monday nights are crowded with football and doing fatherly things with the toddler. Often times I don’t get these shows watched until the middle of the week and it seems pointless to keep going. I’ll try to give some thoughts on them when I get the chance, but don’t expect reviews. My quick thoughts on the last few episodes though as we head towards the end of the season for both shows:
I might be out on Boardwalk Empire next season. I love the grandeur of it all, with all the gorgeous 1920’s outfits and buildings and such. I love Nucky, and Steve Buscemi has proven he can carry this show. But there are just WAY too many fringe characters floating around who I don’t really care about. Anything with the FBI agent almost gets tuned out, and the same with Nucky’s brother. There was a lesbian scene last week and I still have no idea who the two participants were. (Side note: Thanks to HBO for all the gratuitous nudity in this show. It really makes up for all the lag time. Even the Scottish lady got naked Almost makes me want to go back to the 1920’s, it seems to be an epic time for nudity, which is weird since nobody could drink) But until they cut back and have only about 3-4 main characters, it will continue to be dizzying to watch this show. Especially since everyone is dressed alike. Can we at least get the characters some nameplates?
As for Dexter, it started off slow, but the last few episodes have been crazy and have me excited to see how it turns out. I was leery when they said there wouldn’t be a primary serial killer for Dexter to go after, but they’ve proven me wrong. Michael C. Hall seems totally re-energized this season and even the additions of Julia Stiles, Robocop and Angelina Jolie’s first husband haven’t slowed anything down. Finally, we’re seeing a dilemma for Quinn as he falls for Deb and isn’t sure how much further he wants to investigate Dexter, and he actually comes across as likeable. And they’ve focused less on Batista and LaGuerta, always a good thing. Though it is creepy watching Dexter and Lumen hang out in Dexter’s old house, especially the bathtub scene. I hope they don’t take the easy way out and have these two fall for each other. The uneasy partnership is paying off right now in terms of plot and I don’t think we need to mess with that.
How about those Miami Heat? Can we just call them The Big Two now and stop talking about Chris Bosh as part of the superstars? Seriously, 14 points and 5 boards a game? This guy is becoming another Antawn Jamison, a guy who piles up stats on bad teams but shrinks to the background when he plays with better players on better teams. Right now, I still like Boston in that conference as they have Garnett, Big Baby Davis and the O’Neals (plus Kendrick Perkins returning in February) to throw at a suspect Miami frontcourt.
Last, the great Dave Niehaus passed away last night. For those who don’t know, he was the play-by-play guy for the Seattle Mariners, and had been doing that job since the inception of the team in 1977. As somebody who watches around 100 Mariners games a season, this has meant hundreds upon hundreds hours the last few summers have been spent listening to this man. His way of storytelling would make you feel like he was part of your family, and when you spend that much time listening to somebody, he essentially becomes extended family. The Mariners and the baseball world lost a great one. I never understood how Philadelphia or Detroit or St. Louis fans felt when Harry Kalas or Ernie Harwell or Jack Buck passed away, but now I see how it can affect them. RIP Dave, you will be missed.
Wednesday, November 10, 2010
Week 10 Guess the NFL Lines
Scott: I don’t got anything this week except HOW ABOUT DEM COWBOYS!! Be sure to harass any Cowboys bandwagon fan you know with this. It never gets old, and they get angrier and angrier.
Matt: Don't have much either, and didn't write too much to prep for my response. Did however record my guesses. Thought I'd play off of your notes for the most part.
Baltimore at Atlanta. Scott: Finally, the Thursday games return so I don’t have to watch The Mentalist (note: I’ve never watched The Mentalist). Atlanta is money at home, so I think they are paid some respect this week even though the Ravens could be the better team. Falcons by 2 ½.
Matt: I had the Falcons by -3, and it's Falcons by -1, so you get this one. Vegas is recognizing the AFC dominance, despite the gap narrowing in the last couple weeks.
Detoit at Buffalo. Scott: Possibly no Matthew Stafford here, whose shoulder injuries are becoming as frequent as Lindsay Lohan’s rehab visits. I smell a sitcom! Could the Bills be favored? Me thinks they will be. Bills by 2.
Matt: I had two words for this game: No Stafford. I also had Buffalo by -3. And I hit it exactly. 1-1.
Minnesota at Chicago. Scott: I was really looking forward to the fans lynching Brad Childress. The guy actually has me on Brett Favre’s side about something. This game will be a test of how much people think of Chicago. Vikings by 1.
Matt: I had the Bears by -3. Cold Chicago day, old ass Favre. You guessed this exactly, Vegas is crazy. 2-1 Scott.
NY Jets at Cleveland. Scott: What to make of the Browns? They play good teams so tough at home and just beat the weekly ‘best team in football’ in New England. And the Jets haven’t done anything special either the last few weeks either. Still, its Cleveland. Jets by 3 ½.
Matt: I have the Jets by -6, same respect the Pats got in Cleveland last week, and the Jets are better on the road. It's Jets by -3, ridiculous. 3-1 Scott.
Carolina at Tampa Bay – Scott: One on hand, the Bucs should demolish the Panthers. On the other hand, the Bucs seem to play to their competition. Tampa Bay by 7.
Matt: Don’t think Vegas has enough respect for J-Free and The News to give them double digits. I had Buccs by -8.5, and it's -6.5. 4-1 Scott.
Houston at Jacksonville – Scott: I see potential in this one screwing me over this week. Is Houston really back to earth or have they been the victim of a tough schedule? I’d normally give a team a better home team advantage, but its Jacksonville, soooo… Houston by 2 ½.
Matt: I had this game as a pick'em, and it's Jags by -1.5. 4-2 Scott.
Cincinnati at Indianapolis – Scott: Cincy showed some spunk last night, almost rallying back to beat the Steelers, but its Peyton Manning and a short week to prepare. Colts by 6 ½.
Matt: I had the Colts by -7.5. and it's -7, tie. 4-2-1 Scott.
Tennessee at Miami – Scott: Randy Moss makes his Titans debut in this one, as he continues his quest to become the first player in history to get paid by the hour. Miami can’t win at home but they’ve had a brutal schedule so far. Miami by 2 ½.
Matt: I guessed this one exactly, Titans by -1. Fish can't win at home. 4-3-1 Scott.
Kansas City at Denver – Scott: I’m starting to think 2 AFC West teams could make it to 10-6 and sneak into the playoffs. I’m also worried the Chiefs might not be one of those two teams. Kansas City by 3.
Matt: I went out on a limb here, and went Broncos by -0.5. KC is mortal on the road, divisional game, yada yada yada... and it's the Chiefs by -1. Huge win for me. 4-4-1.
Dallas at NY Giants – Scott: Wave the white flag already on this one! On talent alone this should be higher but it’s the Cowboys and a division game. Giants by 10 ½.
Matt: I guessed the same as you (can't believe it took this long for a identical guess), Cowboys won't be getting the full two TDs just yet. And I was wrong! Giants by -14. 4-4-2.
Seattle at Arizona – Scott: Whitehurst! Anderson! It’s the NFL on FOX. Does Ron Pitts or Chris Myers get stuck with this one? After Myers no-sold a huge pass play last week, I hope he gets this one. Is it bad I care more about the announcers in this one than the teams? Arizona by 4.
Matt: Is it me, or does Charlie Whitehurst sound like the geeky real alias of some lame Marvel superhero? I had the Cards by -3... And I'm bang on. 5-4-2 Matt.
St. Louis at San Francisco – Scott: Aaron Rodgers is on a bye this week so I fall to Sam Bradford as my fantasy starter this week. We’re on a 7 game win streak Sam, don’t mess this up. San Fran by 3.
Matt: I also had the 9ers by -3. It's definately that kind of week. Real line is San Fran by -6!! Wow... I will say I'm excited to see the second start for former Heisman Troy Smith. Expectations are low since the Giants won the Fall Classic. 5-4-3 Matt.
New England at Pittsburgh – Scott: Who would have thought that Peyton Hillis would be the one to dismantle the ‘bend but don’t break’ Patriots defense? I had this a little higher, but bringing it down a bit thanks to Pittsburgh’s near implosion in the Monday nighter. Pittsburgh by 2 ½.
Matt: I had Pitt by -3, given each's game last week, the Steelers deserve the full home field line. Have no idea who I'm backing for this one. Definately Nantz and Sims, no? Actual line is Steelers by -4.5. 6-4-3 Matt.
Philadelphia at Washington – I hear this Donovan McNabb guy might have played for Philadelphia at one point or another? I hate these overrated NFC East matchups, so let’s have one last look at “13” year old Andy Reid. So many jokes, so little time..
Oh yeah, Philly by 3.
Matt: I have Skins by -3, as Vegas usually doesn't recognize infighting when considering their lines (until they get to a T.O. level). You nailed this one, guess they did factor it in...
Final tally: 6-5-3 Matt. Back in the win column baby!!
Scott: I never should have switched my Patriots-Steelers from 3.5 to 2.5.
Year score: 5-3-2 for Scott
Matt: Don't have much either, and didn't write too much to prep for my response. Did however record my guesses. Thought I'd play off of your notes for the most part.
Baltimore at Atlanta. Scott: Finally, the Thursday games return so I don’t have to watch The Mentalist (note: I’ve never watched The Mentalist). Atlanta is money at home, so I think they are paid some respect this week even though the Ravens could be the better team. Falcons by 2 ½.
Matt: I had the Falcons by -3, and it's Falcons by -1, so you get this one. Vegas is recognizing the AFC dominance, despite the gap narrowing in the last couple weeks.
Detoit at Buffalo. Scott: Possibly no Matthew Stafford here, whose shoulder injuries are becoming as frequent as Lindsay Lohan’s rehab visits. I smell a sitcom! Could the Bills be favored? Me thinks they will be. Bills by 2.
Matt: I had two words for this game: No Stafford. I also had Buffalo by -3. And I hit it exactly. 1-1.
Minnesota at Chicago. Scott: I was really looking forward to the fans lynching Brad Childress. The guy actually has me on Brett Favre’s side about something. This game will be a test of how much people think of Chicago. Vikings by 1.
Matt: I had the Bears by -3. Cold Chicago day, old ass Favre. You guessed this exactly, Vegas is crazy. 2-1 Scott.
NY Jets at Cleveland. Scott: What to make of the Browns? They play good teams so tough at home and just beat the weekly ‘best team in football’ in New England. And the Jets haven’t done anything special either the last few weeks either. Still, its Cleveland. Jets by 3 ½.
Matt: I have the Jets by -6, same respect the Pats got in Cleveland last week, and the Jets are better on the road. It's Jets by -3, ridiculous. 3-1 Scott.
Carolina at Tampa Bay – Scott: One on hand, the Bucs should demolish the Panthers. On the other hand, the Bucs seem to play to their competition. Tampa Bay by 7.
Matt: Don’t think Vegas has enough respect for J-Free and The News to give them double digits. I had Buccs by -8.5, and it's -6.5. 4-1 Scott.
Houston at Jacksonville – Scott: I see potential in this one screwing me over this week. Is Houston really back to earth or have they been the victim of a tough schedule? I’d normally give a team a better home team advantage, but its Jacksonville, soooo… Houston by 2 ½.
Matt: I had this game as a pick'em, and it's Jags by -1.5. 4-2 Scott.
Cincinnati at Indianapolis – Scott: Cincy showed some spunk last night, almost rallying back to beat the Steelers, but its Peyton Manning and a short week to prepare. Colts by 6 ½.
Matt: I had the Colts by -7.5. and it's -7, tie. 4-2-1 Scott.
Tennessee at Miami – Scott: Randy Moss makes his Titans debut in this one, as he continues his quest to become the first player in history to get paid by the hour. Miami can’t win at home but they’ve had a brutal schedule so far. Miami by 2 ½.
Matt: I guessed this one exactly, Titans by -1. Fish can't win at home. 4-3-1 Scott.
Kansas City at Denver – Scott: I’m starting to think 2 AFC West teams could make it to 10-6 and sneak into the playoffs. I’m also worried the Chiefs might not be one of those two teams. Kansas City by 3.
Matt: I went out on a limb here, and went Broncos by -0.5. KC is mortal on the road, divisional game, yada yada yada... and it's the Chiefs by -1. Huge win for me. 4-4-1.
Dallas at NY Giants – Scott: Wave the white flag already on this one! On talent alone this should be higher but it’s the Cowboys and a division game. Giants by 10 ½.
Matt: I guessed the same as you (can't believe it took this long for a identical guess), Cowboys won't be getting the full two TDs just yet. And I was wrong! Giants by -14. 4-4-2.
Seattle at Arizona – Scott: Whitehurst! Anderson! It’s the NFL on FOX. Does Ron Pitts or Chris Myers get stuck with this one? After Myers no-sold a huge pass play last week, I hope he gets this one. Is it bad I care more about the announcers in this one than the teams? Arizona by 4.
Matt: Is it me, or does Charlie Whitehurst sound like the geeky real alias of some lame Marvel superhero? I had the Cards by -3... And I'm bang on. 5-4-2 Matt.
St. Louis at San Francisco – Scott: Aaron Rodgers is on a bye this week so I fall to Sam Bradford as my fantasy starter this week. We’re on a 7 game win streak Sam, don’t mess this up. San Fran by 3.
Matt: I also had the 9ers by -3. It's definately that kind of week. Real line is San Fran by -6!! Wow... I will say I'm excited to see the second start for former Heisman Troy Smith. Expectations are low since the Giants won the Fall Classic. 5-4-3 Matt.
New England at Pittsburgh – Scott: Who would have thought that Peyton Hillis would be the one to dismantle the ‘bend but don’t break’ Patriots defense? I had this a little higher, but bringing it down a bit thanks to Pittsburgh’s near implosion in the Monday nighter. Pittsburgh by 2 ½.
Matt: I had Pitt by -3, given each's game last week, the Steelers deserve the full home field line. Have no idea who I'm backing for this one. Definately Nantz and Sims, no? Actual line is Steelers by -4.5. 6-4-3 Matt.
Philadelphia at Washington – I hear this Donovan McNabb guy might have played for Philadelphia at one point or another? I hate these overrated NFC East matchups, so let’s have one last look at “13” year old Andy Reid. So many jokes, so little time..
Oh yeah, Philly by 3.
Matt: I have Skins by -3, as Vegas usually doesn't recognize infighting when considering their lines (until they get to a T.O. level). You nailed this one, guess they did factor it in...
Final tally: 6-5-3 Matt. Back in the win column baby!!
Scott: I never should have switched my Patriots-Steelers from 3.5 to 2.5.
Year score: 5-3-2 for Scott
Friday, November 5, 2010
Week 9 NFL picks
Last week: 10-3
YTD: 59-56-2
Did you go against me like I told you last week? No matter what I tell you to do, I can’t get it right. Back on the right side of .500 now, time to pick it up as we enter the 2nd half of the season. This should be an interesting week with a ton of big name road favorites, which usually means there are upsets to be had.
New Orleans (-7) at Carolina – This one has all the makings of a trap game for New Orleans, with a huge win over Pittsburgh as they enter the easy part of their schedule. Everyone (over 80% according to the consensus at Covers.com) has the Saints here. I have no good reason to do this other than my mantra ‘Vegas doesn’t give away free money.’ Pick: Carolina
San Diego (-3) at Houston – The oddsmakers really like the Chargers as this is their 3rd straight week of being a favorite to a team that has a much better record than them (though they won 1 and could have won the 2nd of those games). Going back to the same Vegas mantra. Pick: San Diego
NY Jets (-4.5) at Detroit – The spread is so low because the Lions manage to cover spreads every week (6-1 on the year). But I expect a bounce back game from the Jets’ offense. As for their defense, let’s not forget they held a very explosive Packers’ offense to only 9 points last week. If the Jets want to establish themselves as a contender, they need to put a good hurting on the pesky Lions. Pick: NY Jets
Miami (+5) at Baltimore – Another game in the Vegas zone (between 4 and 6 points, but not on either number). Baltimore had the bye week and I think everyone is onto the fact that Miami plays well on the road. But Baltimore has handled the Fish the last two years pretty handily, I don’t know why they can’t do it again. Pick: Baltimore
Arizona (+8.5) at Minnesota – Derek Anderson remembered he was Derek Anderson at the end of last week, but can he do it for a full game on the road? Minnesota enters the easy part of the schedule, and I expect this game to be full of faint praise for Brett Favre for gunslinging it up with a busted up chin. Pick: Minnesota
Tampa Bay (+8.5) at Atlanta – Both teams with a 5-2 record, playing in the same division, but almost a double digit spread? Everyone is on Tampa, but they seem to put up a stinker about every 3rd game or so, and I think they’re due for one here, as the spread here is too good to be true. Pick: Atlanta
New England (-5) at Cleveland – I don’t make the spreads. The best team in the NFL at 6-1 only gives 5 points to the lowly Browns? Cleveland is coming off the bye and plays well at home. I don’t know how, but I think they hang in this game. Pick: Cleveland
Chicago (-3) at Buffalo – The Bills have taken very good teams to overtime the last couple of weeks and now play the Bears off a bye week. Everyone is saying this will be Buffalo’s first win, but until they get one, I can’t bet on them to cover such a low spread. Pick: Chicago
NY Giants (-7) at Seattle – The Chaz Whitehurst era begins in Seattle, and this is not the team you want to start against for your first start. Seattle got rocked by 30 in Oakland last week where they were outgained by almost 400 yards. I can’t find any reason to take Seattle. Pick: NY Giants
Indianapolis (+2.5) at Philadelphia – Michael Vick and DeSean Jackson return off a bye week. Colts are banged up and played in the Monday night game. Everybody is on Indy. Every time I bet against Peyton Manning I get burned, but here goes. Pick: Philadelphia
Kansas City (+2) at Oakland – Can the Raiders continue to put up 500 yards a week? Of course not. The road team has dominated this matchup which is strange as both teams enjoy loud home field crowds. I love the under here as both teams have good running games that should chew up a lot of clock. I might be jinxing my team at a time they need a win but here goes.. Pick: Kansas City
Dallas (+8.5) at Green Bay – I hate Jon Kitna, but the Dallas defense is good enough to somehow keep the Cowboys in this one. They’ll be fired up for a night game in what might be their last meaningful game of the season. Pick: Dallas
Pittsburgh (-5) at Cincinnati – Here we have two teams whose QB’s stats are a little better than how they’ve played. Ben RKelly has been fumble prone while my documented hate for Carson Palmer is well documented on this barely read blog. I suspect a close game with a late cover on something like a Palmer interception. Pick: Pittsburgh
YTD: 59-56-2
Did you go against me like I told you last week? No matter what I tell you to do, I can’t get it right. Back on the right side of .500 now, time to pick it up as we enter the 2nd half of the season. This should be an interesting week with a ton of big name road favorites, which usually means there are upsets to be had.
New Orleans (-7) at Carolina – This one has all the makings of a trap game for New Orleans, with a huge win over Pittsburgh as they enter the easy part of their schedule. Everyone (over 80% according to the consensus at Covers.com) has the Saints here. I have no good reason to do this other than my mantra ‘Vegas doesn’t give away free money.’ Pick: Carolina
San Diego (-3) at Houston – The oddsmakers really like the Chargers as this is their 3rd straight week of being a favorite to a team that has a much better record than them (though they won 1 and could have won the 2nd of those games). Going back to the same Vegas mantra. Pick: San Diego
NY Jets (-4.5) at Detroit – The spread is so low because the Lions manage to cover spreads every week (6-1 on the year). But I expect a bounce back game from the Jets’ offense. As for their defense, let’s not forget they held a very explosive Packers’ offense to only 9 points last week. If the Jets want to establish themselves as a contender, they need to put a good hurting on the pesky Lions. Pick: NY Jets
Miami (+5) at Baltimore – Another game in the Vegas zone (between 4 and 6 points, but not on either number). Baltimore had the bye week and I think everyone is onto the fact that Miami plays well on the road. But Baltimore has handled the Fish the last two years pretty handily, I don’t know why they can’t do it again. Pick: Baltimore
Arizona (+8.5) at Minnesota – Derek Anderson remembered he was Derek Anderson at the end of last week, but can he do it for a full game on the road? Minnesota enters the easy part of the schedule, and I expect this game to be full of faint praise for Brett Favre for gunslinging it up with a busted up chin. Pick: Minnesota
Tampa Bay (+8.5) at Atlanta – Both teams with a 5-2 record, playing in the same division, but almost a double digit spread? Everyone is on Tampa, but they seem to put up a stinker about every 3rd game or so, and I think they’re due for one here, as the spread here is too good to be true. Pick: Atlanta
New England (-5) at Cleveland – I don’t make the spreads. The best team in the NFL at 6-1 only gives 5 points to the lowly Browns? Cleveland is coming off the bye and plays well at home. I don’t know how, but I think they hang in this game. Pick: Cleveland
Chicago (-3) at Buffalo – The Bills have taken very good teams to overtime the last couple of weeks and now play the Bears off a bye week. Everyone is saying this will be Buffalo’s first win, but until they get one, I can’t bet on them to cover such a low spread. Pick: Chicago
NY Giants (-7) at Seattle – The Chaz Whitehurst era begins in Seattle, and this is not the team you want to start against for your first start. Seattle got rocked by 30 in Oakland last week where they were outgained by almost 400 yards. I can’t find any reason to take Seattle. Pick: NY Giants
Indianapolis (+2.5) at Philadelphia – Michael Vick and DeSean Jackson return off a bye week. Colts are banged up and played in the Monday night game. Everybody is on Indy. Every time I bet against Peyton Manning I get burned, but here goes. Pick: Philadelphia
Kansas City (+2) at Oakland – Can the Raiders continue to put up 500 yards a week? Of course not. The road team has dominated this matchup which is strange as both teams enjoy loud home field crowds. I love the under here as both teams have good running games that should chew up a lot of clock. I might be jinxing my team at a time they need a win but here goes.. Pick: Kansas City
Dallas (+8.5) at Green Bay – I hate Jon Kitna, but the Dallas defense is good enough to somehow keep the Cowboys in this one. They’ll be fired up for a night game in what might be their last meaningful game of the season. Pick: Dallas
Pittsburgh (-5) at Cincinnati – Here we have two teams whose QB’s stats are a little better than how they’ve played. Ben RKelly has been fumble prone while my documented hate for Carson Palmer is well documented on this barely read blog. I suspect a close game with a late cover on something like a Palmer interception. Pick: Pittsburgh
Wednesday, November 3, 2010
Week 9 Guess the Lines
Scott: 10-3 week and back with a vengeance! We switch things up this week as Matty will take the hammer and no-sell any possible jokes I make (who am I kidding, they're not funny). I got nothing much to add this week, other than why are we talking so much about teams who suck (Cowboys and Vikings, I’m looking at YOU here) and not about a ton of feel good stories like the Raiders, Bucs and Jaguars?
Matt: Let's get one thing straight here, the Jags aren't a feel good story. They still can't fill their stadium or televise home games, and by this time 2012 They'll be the LA Magic. On to the lines.
Tampa Bay at Atlanta - Scott: Atlanta comes off the bye week while the Bucs are at 5-2 and tied for the division lead. Somehow, I think that means little to the people who bet or make these lines. Atlanta by 6 ½.
Matt: The NFC’s version of Miami @ Baltimore, undefeated on the road meets undefeated at home. J-Free hasn’t convinced everyone yet. Falcons by -6.
Actual line: Atlanta by 8. Point to Scott.
Chicago at Buffalo (in Toronto) – Scott: The NFL continues its efforts to alienate anyone outside the good ol’ US of A with this one. Chicago is a couple of lucky wins away from joining Dallas and Minnesota in the ‘talented but suck’ club, while Buffalo has gone to overtime two straight weeks on the road against quality opponents. Still, it’s the Bills. Chicago by 1.5.
Matt: The Bears couldn’t have caught the bye at a better time, temporarily stopping the free fall. What can you say about the winless Bills… back to back losses in OT in which they should have won… Heartbreak City!! Time to show that AFC scum is better than NFC scum? Bears by -2.
Actual line: Chicago by 3. Point to Matt.
New England at Cleveland – Will the Pats have Randy Moss back for this one? Or will he be saluting Bill Belichick on somebody else’s podium? Cleveland plays tough, but the Patriots don’t have a 6-1 record for nothing. Patriots by 10 ½.
Matt: Patriots are the newly anointed “best team in the NFL”, Cleveland coming off bye and win over the champs – but I don’t think anyone has illusions that the Browns are any good… yet. Pats by -7.5.
Actual line: New England by 5. Point to Matt.
NY Jets at Detroit – Scott: The Lions always play tough, and it will be interesting to see their young offensive stars go up against a blitzing, hard-hitting defense. Still though, the Jets are a top team, despite what their offense did against Green Bay. Jets by 4.
Matt: No doubt, the Lions have a different look with Stafford back under center. Jets are unbeaten on the road. Detroit by -1.
Actual line: Jets by 4. Point to Scott.
New Orleans at Carolina – Scott: Do we believe the Saints are back after a big Sunday night victory over the Steelers? Or do we make them prove it another week against the lowly Panthers? I think Vegas has bought in. New Orleans by 10.
Matt: Could this be the blowout game we’ve all been waiting for from the Saints? NO by -10.5.
Actual line: Saints by 7. Point to Scott.
Miami at Baltimore – Scott: Miami is starting to get to the point where they should be giving points on the road and getting them at home. I don’t trust their offense though. And Baltimore is rested after a week off. Baltimore by 3 ½.
Matt: Fish don’t lose on the road, Ravens don’t lose at home, something has got to give... Ravens come off the bye. Bmore by -5.
Actual line: Baltimore by 6. Point to Matt.
San Diego at Houston – Scott: So the Chargers have the most yards for, the least yards against, and are 3-5? That makes about as much sense as trying to figure out which Houston team is going to show up in any given game. Houston by 3.
Matt: I don’t read too much into last week’s outcomes, SD seemingly always beats the Titans, and Houston always loses in Indy. Vegas might read too much into the Charger’s win though. Texans by -3.5.
Actual line: San Diego by 1.5. Point to Scott.
Arizona at Minnesota – Scott: I actually thought they killed Brett Favre with that chin shot, but like (choose movie reference here – Michael Myers, The Terminator, the dismembered knight in Monty Python), he just can’t be stopped. And thanks to Derek Anderson for being who we thought he was last week. Minnesota by 7 ½.
Matt: The Dallas Cowboys should send the Vikings some cookies. Despite being the league’s biggest disappointment, Minny is hogging all the headlines. Should we start assuming that Zona will always use both QBs in every game? Vikes by -4.
Actual line: Minnesota by 8. Point to Scott.
NY Giants at Seattle – Scott: This game is a test of just how much Vegas thinks of the Seahawks at home. The Giants are arguably the NFC’s best team right now, and New York being New York, Seattle won’t get it’s typical home respect this week. Giants by 1.
Matt: If Manning started the way he did in Dallas, in Seattle (or 80% of the other teams), they lose for sure, but Dallas thought they had that game won in the 1st quarter and took their foot off the gas. Eli usually doesn’t have two bad games in a row. Hawks by -1.
Actual line: NY Giants by 4. Point to Scott.
Indianapolis at Philadelphia – Scott: Probably my toughest game to pick as there are so many variables with Mike Vick back, the Colts playing on Monday night, big name injuries on both sides.. Indy by 2.
Matt: Why the #$%& isn’t it flex schedule time yet?? Vick is back, Philly coming off the bye, Peyton won last week passing to a set of old speakers and a trash can. Eagles have not been especially good at home. Pick’em?
Actual line: Eagles by 3. Point to Matt.
Kansas City at Oakland – Scott: Hands up everyone who thought at the beginning of the 2010 season this game would be for the AFC West lead! Al Davis just had somebody raise his corpse’s hand. Raiders by 2 ½.
Matt: Why the #$%& isn’t it flex schedule time yet?? Don’t worry, these two will get another chance at the evening feature in week 17. Just a couple years ago we had Broncos-Chargers in week 17 for the division title, might we have another such battle with the other two teams this year? Probably not. Chiefs are human on the road, as is usually the case with young teams (unless that team is headed by J-Free!). Raiders by -2.
Actual line: Oakland by 3. Point to Scott.
Dallas at Green Bay – Scott: They really need to start the flex schedule a little sooner. I have zero interest in watching Jon Kitna. But hopefully Aaron Rodgers can win me my fantasy game. That’s all I’ve got on this one. Green Bay by 6 ½.
Matt: Why the #$%& isn’t it flex schedule time yet?? So we could boot this shitty game out of the Sunday Nighter. The promos for this game since last Sunday have been laughable, what can you say about the Boys to hype them up, seriously… Packers by -6.5.
Actual line: Green Bay by 8. Tie.
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati – Scott: Another weird game, Pittsburgh off a tough game, Cincy beat the Steelers in both matchups last week, Monday Night football.. But I still can’t go against the team I think wins it all this seasons because of one bad game. Steelers by 2 ½.
Matt: Why the Well, the all-division dominant mystique from last year evaporated when the Browns beat them this year, but the Bengals still beat the Ravens, and the Steelers have looked *gulp* worse, since the rapist has returned. (added afterwards: So... Cincy won both matchups last "week" huh? hahaha) Steelers by -3.
Actual line: Pittsburgh by 4 ½. Point to Matt.
Week Score: Scott 7, Matt 5, Tie 1.
YTD: Scott 5, Matt 2, Tie 2
Matt: Let's get one thing straight here, the Jags aren't a feel good story. They still can't fill their stadium or televise home games, and by this time 2012 They'll be the LA Magic. On to the lines.
Tampa Bay at Atlanta - Scott: Atlanta comes off the bye week while the Bucs are at 5-2 and tied for the division lead. Somehow, I think that means little to the people who bet or make these lines. Atlanta by 6 ½.
Matt: The NFC’s version of Miami @ Baltimore, undefeated on the road meets undefeated at home. J-Free hasn’t convinced everyone yet. Falcons by -6.
Actual line: Atlanta by 8. Point to Scott.
Chicago at Buffalo (in Toronto) – Scott: The NFL continues its efforts to alienate anyone outside the good ol’ US of A with this one. Chicago is a couple of lucky wins away from joining Dallas and Minnesota in the ‘talented but suck’ club, while Buffalo has gone to overtime two straight weeks on the road against quality opponents. Still, it’s the Bills. Chicago by 1.5.
Matt: The Bears couldn’t have caught the bye at a better time, temporarily stopping the free fall. What can you say about the winless Bills… back to back losses in OT in which they should have won… Heartbreak City!! Time to show that AFC scum is better than NFC scum? Bears by -2.
Actual line: Chicago by 3. Point to Matt.
New England at Cleveland – Will the Pats have Randy Moss back for this one? Or will he be saluting Bill Belichick on somebody else’s podium? Cleveland plays tough, but the Patriots don’t have a 6-1 record for nothing. Patriots by 10 ½.
Matt: Patriots are the newly anointed “best team in the NFL”, Cleveland coming off bye and win over the champs – but I don’t think anyone has illusions that the Browns are any good… yet. Pats by -7.5.
Actual line: New England by 5. Point to Matt.
NY Jets at Detroit – Scott: The Lions always play tough, and it will be interesting to see their young offensive stars go up against a blitzing, hard-hitting defense. Still though, the Jets are a top team, despite what their offense did against Green Bay. Jets by 4.
Matt: No doubt, the Lions have a different look with Stafford back under center. Jets are unbeaten on the road. Detroit by -1.
Actual line: Jets by 4. Point to Scott.
New Orleans at Carolina – Scott: Do we believe the Saints are back after a big Sunday night victory over the Steelers? Or do we make them prove it another week against the lowly Panthers? I think Vegas has bought in. New Orleans by 10.
Matt: Could this be the blowout game we’ve all been waiting for from the Saints? NO by -10.5.
Actual line: Saints by 7. Point to Scott.
Miami at Baltimore – Scott: Miami is starting to get to the point where they should be giving points on the road and getting them at home. I don’t trust their offense though. And Baltimore is rested after a week off. Baltimore by 3 ½.
Matt: Fish don’t lose on the road, Ravens don’t lose at home, something has got to give... Ravens come off the bye. Bmore by -5.
Actual line: Baltimore by 6. Point to Matt.
San Diego at Houston – Scott: So the Chargers have the most yards for, the least yards against, and are 3-5? That makes about as much sense as trying to figure out which Houston team is going to show up in any given game. Houston by 3.
Matt: I don’t read too much into last week’s outcomes, SD seemingly always beats the Titans, and Houston always loses in Indy. Vegas might read too much into the Charger’s win though. Texans by -3.5.
Actual line: San Diego by 1.5. Point to Scott.
Arizona at Minnesota – Scott: I actually thought they killed Brett Favre with that chin shot, but like (choose movie reference here – Michael Myers, The Terminator, the dismembered knight in Monty Python), he just can’t be stopped. And thanks to Derek Anderson for being who we thought he was last week. Minnesota by 7 ½.
Matt: The Dallas Cowboys should send the Vikings some cookies. Despite being the league’s biggest disappointment, Minny is hogging all the headlines. Should we start assuming that Zona will always use both QBs in every game? Vikes by -4.
Actual line: Minnesota by 8. Point to Scott.
NY Giants at Seattle – Scott: This game is a test of just how much Vegas thinks of the Seahawks at home. The Giants are arguably the NFC’s best team right now, and New York being New York, Seattle won’t get it’s typical home respect this week. Giants by 1.
Matt: If Manning started the way he did in Dallas, in Seattle (or 80% of the other teams), they lose for sure, but Dallas thought they had that game won in the 1st quarter and took their foot off the gas. Eli usually doesn’t have two bad games in a row. Hawks by -1.
Actual line: NY Giants by 4. Point to Scott.
Indianapolis at Philadelphia – Scott: Probably my toughest game to pick as there are so many variables with Mike Vick back, the Colts playing on Monday night, big name injuries on both sides.. Indy by 2.
Matt: Why the #$%& isn’t it flex schedule time yet?? Vick is back, Philly coming off the bye, Peyton won last week passing to a set of old speakers and a trash can. Eagles have not been especially good at home. Pick’em?
Actual line: Eagles by 3. Point to Matt.
Kansas City at Oakland – Scott: Hands up everyone who thought at the beginning of the 2010 season this game would be for the AFC West lead! Al Davis just had somebody raise his corpse’s hand. Raiders by 2 ½.
Matt: Why the #$%& isn’t it flex schedule time yet?? Don’t worry, these two will get another chance at the evening feature in week 17. Just a couple years ago we had Broncos-Chargers in week 17 for the division title, might we have another such battle with the other two teams this year? Probably not. Chiefs are human on the road, as is usually the case with young teams (unless that team is headed by J-Free!). Raiders by -2.
Actual line: Oakland by 3. Point to Scott.
Dallas at Green Bay – Scott: They really need to start the flex schedule a little sooner. I have zero interest in watching Jon Kitna. But hopefully Aaron Rodgers can win me my fantasy game. That’s all I’ve got on this one. Green Bay by 6 ½.
Matt: Why the #$%& isn’t it flex schedule time yet?? So we could boot this shitty game out of the Sunday Nighter. The promos for this game since last Sunday have been laughable, what can you say about the Boys to hype them up, seriously… Packers by -6.5.
Actual line: Green Bay by 8. Tie.
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati – Scott: Another weird game, Pittsburgh off a tough game, Cincy beat the Steelers in both matchups last week, Monday Night football.. But I still can’t go against the team I think wins it all this seasons because of one bad game. Steelers by 2 ½.
Matt: Why the Well, the all-division dominant mystique from last year evaporated when the Browns beat them this year, but the Bengals still beat the Ravens, and the Steelers have looked *gulp* worse, since the rapist has returned. (added afterwards: So... Cincy won both matchups last "week" huh? hahaha) Steelers by -3.
Actual line: Pittsburgh by 4 ½. Point to Matt.
Week Score: Scott 7, Matt 5, Tie 1.
YTD: Scott 5, Matt 2, Tie 2
Friday, October 29, 2010
Week 8 NFL picks
Week 7: 5-9
YTD: 49-53-2
You’re still reading? I guess I am becoming the automatic fade at this point. Oh well, since you’re here for bad picks, let’s get on with them!
Buffalo (+7.5) at Kansas City – I pegged this line but it’s a good line. I still don’t trust Kansas City as a good team, even if they will win the division, and Ryan Fitzpatrick can move the ball. He’s good for a garbage touchdown for the cover. Pick: Buffalo
Jacksonville (+6.5) at Dallas – Bouman! Kitna! It’s the NFL on CBS! Nice to see the Cowboys trying to get the ’07 Lions back together with Kitna and Williams. David Garrard might actually be back for this one. He’s competent. Jon Kitna isn’t. The Cowboys’ season gets worse. Pick: Jacksonville
Carolina (+3) at St. Louis – I like this Sam Bradford kid. Rams are decent home, even if you can’t trust them on the road. No DeAngelo Williams in this one means Steve Smith might punch out John Fox by halftime. And that’s the only real reason to watch this one. Pick: Rams
Miami (+1) at Cincinnati – What was I thinking taking the Bengals last week? We can’t make the same mistake here. And Miami is on the road. Pick: Miami
Washington (+2.5) at Detroit – The Lions giving points to a 4-3 team? Something is smelly. But let’s see. Donovan McNabb is a bad QB. LaRon Landry is questionable. Matthew Stafford is back which also opens up things for Jahvid Best. And as I’ve complained for awhile, the Redskins are lucky. This could be just the type of game to prove it. Pick: Detroit.
Denver (+1) ‘at’ San Francisco – This one is London as the NFL continues its pursuit to alienate any possible fan base they might have overseas. Denver has just been curb stomped by Oakland, and while the Niners aren’t winning, they’ve been competitive. But even if Kyle Orton is a mirage even though he’s on pace for well over 4,000 yards, he’s still way better than David Carr. Pick: Denver
Green Bay (+6) at NY Jets – A battle of the last two teams jilted by Brett Favre. This game is almost like a support group for the teams as they attempt to move on in their lives. I like the Jets here, everything points to them (bye week, better team, Packers can’t run the ball). But the one thing the Packers will do is put up points here, and I think they’re good for the cover. Pick: Green Bay
Tennessee (+3.5) at San Diego – The Chargers give points again to a team clearly superior to them. Vince Young is back but will be rusty. I don’t think Kenny Britt has another 3 TD game in him. Here’s another thing: The Chargers are averaging 423 yards on offense and only giving up 244 on defense, almost a 200 yard difference. If the Redskins are this year’s lucky team, the Chargers have to be the unlucky team. One of these days skill wins out. Pick: San Diego
Tampa Bay (+3) at Arizona – First team to 15 wins! Seriously, these teams come in averaging an identical 16.3 points per game. Tampa has yet to lose on the road, and when in doubt, take the points. Pick: Tampa Bay
Minnesota (+5.5) at New England – They say Brett Favre won’t play. I’ll believe that when I see it. I don’t like that the Patriots give up almost 380 yards per game on defense. The Vikings have a tough schedule, but they haven’t lost by 9 or more this season, and even that game was on a last minute Favre pick-6. Pick: Minnesota
Seattle (+2.5) at Oakland – Oakland is due for the inevitable bounce-down game after a huge win. Seattle can’t win at home. Something has to give. The Chiefs need somebody to attempt to chase them down in the division. Pick: Oakland
Pittsburgh (+1) at New Orleans – Halloween night, weird things will happen. Pittsburgh is the better team, but New Orleans needs this game. Pick: New Orleans
Houston (+5.5) at Indianapolis – Houston always plays Indy tough, and will be looking for the season sweep. The Colts are too banged up (Dallas Clark out, Joseph Addai doubtful) and something has to eventually give. Yes, it’s Peyton Manning at home in a night game, but… Pick: Houston
Happy Halloween everyone!
YTD: 49-53-2
You’re still reading? I guess I am becoming the automatic fade at this point. Oh well, since you’re here for bad picks, let’s get on with them!
Buffalo (+7.5) at Kansas City – I pegged this line but it’s a good line. I still don’t trust Kansas City as a good team, even if they will win the division, and Ryan Fitzpatrick can move the ball. He’s good for a garbage touchdown for the cover. Pick: Buffalo
Jacksonville (+6.5) at Dallas – Bouman! Kitna! It’s the NFL on CBS! Nice to see the Cowboys trying to get the ’07 Lions back together with Kitna and Williams. David Garrard might actually be back for this one. He’s competent. Jon Kitna isn’t. The Cowboys’ season gets worse. Pick: Jacksonville
Carolina (+3) at St. Louis – I like this Sam Bradford kid. Rams are decent home, even if you can’t trust them on the road. No DeAngelo Williams in this one means Steve Smith might punch out John Fox by halftime. And that’s the only real reason to watch this one. Pick: Rams
Miami (+1) at Cincinnati – What was I thinking taking the Bengals last week? We can’t make the same mistake here. And Miami is on the road. Pick: Miami
Washington (+2.5) at Detroit – The Lions giving points to a 4-3 team? Something is smelly. But let’s see. Donovan McNabb is a bad QB. LaRon Landry is questionable. Matthew Stafford is back which also opens up things for Jahvid Best. And as I’ve complained for awhile, the Redskins are lucky. This could be just the type of game to prove it. Pick: Detroit.
Denver (+1) ‘at’ San Francisco – This one is London as the NFL continues its pursuit to alienate any possible fan base they might have overseas. Denver has just been curb stomped by Oakland, and while the Niners aren’t winning, they’ve been competitive. But even if Kyle Orton is a mirage even though he’s on pace for well over 4,000 yards, he’s still way better than David Carr. Pick: Denver
Green Bay (+6) at NY Jets – A battle of the last two teams jilted by Brett Favre. This game is almost like a support group for the teams as they attempt to move on in their lives. I like the Jets here, everything points to them (bye week, better team, Packers can’t run the ball). But the one thing the Packers will do is put up points here, and I think they’re good for the cover. Pick: Green Bay
Tennessee (+3.5) at San Diego – The Chargers give points again to a team clearly superior to them. Vince Young is back but will be rusty. I don’t think Kenny Britt has another 3 TD game in him. Here’s another thing: The Chargers are averaging 423 yards on offense and only giving up 244 on defense, almost a 200 yard difference. If the Redskins are this year’s lucky team, the Chargers have to be the unlucky team. One of these days skill wins out. Pick: San Diego
Tampa Bay (+3) at Arizona – First team to 15 wins! Seriously, these teams come in averaging an identical 16.3 points per game. Tampa has yet to lose on the road, and when in doubt, take the points. Pick: Tampa Bay
Minnesota (+5.5) at New England – They say Brett Favre won’t play. I’ll believe that when I see it. I don’t like that the Patriots give up almost 380 yards per game on defense. The Vikings have a tough schedule, but they haven’t lost by 9 or more this season, and even that game was on a last minute Favre pick-6. Pick: Minnesota
Seattle (+2.5) at Oakland – Oakland is due for the inevitable bounce-down game after a huge win. Seattle can’t win at home. Something has to give. The Chiefs need somebody to attempt to chase them down in the division. Pick: Oakland
Pittsburgh (+1) at New Orleans – Halloween night, weird things will happen. Pittsburgh is the better team, but New Orleans needs this game. Pick: New Orleans
Houston (+5.5) at Indianapolis – Houston always plays Indy tough, and will be looking for the season sweep. The Colts are too banged up (Dallas Clark out, Joseph Addai doubtful) and something has to eventually give. Yes, it’s Peyton Manning at home in a night game, but… Pick: Houston
Happy Halloween everyone!
Tuesday, October 26, 2010
Week 8 NFL lines with Matty K
Matt: Guess who's bizzack?!? I shocked the world this week, going 12/14! Had SD completed the comeback (Kaeding rang a very makeable FG off the upright), and had I not thought the Cowboys had a chance to cover versus the Giants, I would have been perfect. However, I will leave the woulda, coulda, shouldas to Brian McKnight and move on.
Less helmet hits this week led to more scoring, and less injuries, and I don't think anyone thinks we saw a poorer product on the field. The only thing I take out of the whole issue is that James Harrison was probably the kid on the playground that threatened to go home if the other boys and girls didn't play the way he wanted.
I'm coming for you like Ricky Bobby took it to Jean Girard, no more cheap half point wins for you this week... suspect...
Scott: We’re like opposites right now in that I can’t buy a betting win (5-9 this week), but I’m owning you here! Truth be told, I’d rather be on your end.
As for less helmet-to-helmet hits, we can agree that’s a good thing. All the defensive players whined, but here’s the thing… The NFL keeps going out of their way to protect OFFENSIVE players. Makes sense, people pay to see the Peyton Mannings and Adrian Petersons. But not one rule that I can think of in years has helped a defense (that I can think of). So now you have offenses that are allowed to run wild, and you can barely touch offensive players.
So what do defensive coaches and coordinators do? They teach you to try to do the one thing that is the great equalizer: Get the other team to turn the ball over. How do you do that? You hit the guy as hard as you can. You stick your helmet in there. And now you’re basically telling the defensive players you can’t do that either. We’re going to see a slew of 42-37 games now. I’m a defensive guy and I know there are people who like points, but that seems a little excessive. Who am I kidding, the NFL would love 66-58 games.
If the NFL wants to get rid of those sort of hits, then it needs to try and even things out for the defenses, or the only thing the defense can do to have a chance is hit hard, which will lead to borderline or sometimes blatantly dirty hits. Rant over. At least until the topic of Brett Favre comes up…
BUF @ KC. Matt: Wow, Buffalo finally gets up for a game and they get hosed by the refs, rough. Now they get the AFC West leading (Can you believe your boys would have had this prefix for at least 9 weeks?? And that is assuming they tank, and THE RAIDERS somehow get hot... hahaha, I love this league) Chiefs. KC has got to be careful this week, the Bills just got their hearts torn out last week, don't know if that helps or hinders them, but they're still winless, so I'm going with helps. Chiefs by *gulp* -11.5.
Scott: KC is winning their division. They’re going to go 12-4 and then lose to somebody like Indy or New England in the 2nd round of the playoffs, mark it down. Their schedule is marshmallowy soft, even though they are likely not one of the top 6 teams in the conference. That said, this line WILL be exactly KC by 7.5 (calling my shot!), because they won’t make the Bills double digit dogs after last week.
Actual line: Kansas City by 7.5. Point to Scott. (Do I get 2 for that one?)
GB @ NYJ. Matt: Despite more people giving more attention to Minnesota losing the Sunday Nighter, going in, that game definitely meant more to the Packers, they had lost 3 of 4 coming in, Rodgers needed to vanquish his sensei, it was must-win. Jets coming off the bye, arguably the best team in the League, and now Revis is 100%. Jets by -7.
Scott: I’m thinking these receivers on other teams are starting to look at a trip to Revis Island as a nice vacation destination. Not only because he’s injured, but because he’s overrated. Not sure what to make of the Packers right now with their injuries, but not the team you want to face banged up.. Jets by 3.
Actual line: Jets by 6. Point to Matt.
DEN @ SF. Matt: This one is technically a night game, live from London. This time we got the Sillynannies playing... the Sillynannies. Always an interesting scenario because there is no home field advantage since the site is neutral. Both teams coming in with some serious baggage (pun definately intended). So the question is, who benefits most from having this game played overseas? They're chanting for Tebow in Denver, and crazy-coach-guy has a 1-win team who lost to a winless team. I'll go with a pick.
Scott: I forgot which game was being played in London (which will be reflected in my line, I counted this as a 49er home game), but so mad you grabbed the Sillynannies reference first. I’d been saving that one all season, then forgot that the London game was this week. One question: How do you send these two teams if you want to sell the NFL in Europe? Can’t we just send them DVD’s of good teams? San Fran by 2.5.
Actual line: Pick. Point to Matt.
JAX @ DAL. Matt: I'm calling this line on the basis that the farmer is still calling the plays under center for the Jags. Jon Kitna for the 'Boys. Dallas by -1.
Scott: I was shocked when I saw Kitna last night, I didn’t even know he was in the league. I have no idea where they go with this line. Dallas by 2.5, cuz they're the Cowboys.
Actual line: Dallas by 6.5. Point to Scott.
CAR @ STL. Matt: Cats finally got the monkey off their back, the Rams found out what it's like to lose in the 4th quarter to J-Free. Rams have been great at home, can't trust Carolina just yet. St. Lunatics by -5.5.
Scott: How come St. Louis always gets a Nelly/Lunatics reference, but we never give one to Outkast for a Falcons game, E-40 or Too Short for an Oakland game, or Rick Ross for a Dolphins game? I’m calling you out for Midwest bias. Oh yeah, St. Louis by 3.5.
Actual line: St. Louis by 3. Point to Scott.
MIA @ CIN. Matt: Fish lost a heartbreaker on Sunday, but they are best on the road this year. I'm beginning to think that T.O. teams need him to bitch in press conferences MORE... He was heard loudest in Dallas and Philly, and those were playoff teams... hmmm. I also have this game as a pick.
Scott: I keep hearing all these closet Dolphins fans claiming they got screwed against Pittsburgh. Where did these people come from? And deal with it people, it was the right call. Cincy gets the home team benefit here, Bengals by 2.5.
Actual line: Cincinnati by 2. Point to Scott.
WAS @ DET. Matt: This is not a sexy offence some might have expected with McNabb coming to town, but they always seem to find different ways to win games. Stafford back for Detroit and it couldn't come soon enough. My third pick'em of the week...
Scott: I love when people say the Redskins ‘find ways to win.’ Like having a team like Dallas try running a stupid play at halftime and fumbling into an easy TD, or Green Bay doinking the winning field goal, or Jay Cutler throwing 4 picks to the same dude and still losing by only 3. Washington is terrible, and just incredibly lucky. But they get the benefit this week for playing the Lions, ‘Skins by 3.
Actual line: Detroit by 2.5. Point to Matt.
TEN @ SD. Matt: These two come in headed in opposite directions. Qualcomm still a tough place to play. I foresee a tight defensive game, all the way up til CJ breaks the game open, runs for at least 175. Titans by -4.
Scott: The lines on the Chargers have made no sense this year, and why not go one more week? In fairness, the Chargers dominated the Patriots aside from turnovers. They’re due to win one. San Diego by 2.
Actual line: San Diego by 3.5. Point to Scott.
TB @ ARI. Matt: They're starting to believe in this kid. On the other side, we're probably back to Derek Anderson? Really? Does he need another chance? Ah well... not my team. J-Free by -3.5.
Scott: Can’t we just put Kevin Kolb in Arizona already and be done with it? Or Kerry Collins at least? Arizona by 2.
Actual line: Cardinals by 3. Point to Scott.
MIN @ NE. Matt: Could we see the end of the streak? How many times will I have to hear about this thru the week? Fack! I think he'll play just because the Patriot pass rush isn't exactly the most terrifying in the league, he should be able to keep the jersey clean if he starts - you know he will. Pats by 6.
Scott: To answer your question, exactly 248 times (ok, maybe not EXACTLY, but if you're betting, take the over). This is so silly at this point. There is NOTHING Brett Favre can do where the media will turn on him. Sexually harass a team employee? Shove that under the rug. Then we have Favre playing up these injuries but being too ‘gutsy’ to come out of a game (not gutsy, selfish in the name of a streak).
He’ll throw a TD and he’s jumping around like a college kid. But then he throws a pick-6 and he’ll grab the elbow or limp around on the ankle for sympathy points. Even Cris Collinsworth was blaming Harvin and Moss for Favre’s interceptions, and he’s the most impartial announcer around. Oh well, only 10 more games left to go in this guy’s farewell tour. Oh yeah, Patriots by 3.5.
Actual line: New England by 5. Point to Matt.
SEA @ OAK. Matt: Oakland, and particularly their first half, scared people last week. All of the sudden, Seattle looks like they have a tough, gritty team, I may trust them on the road for the first time in a long time. Home fans should be jumpin. Raiders by -2.5.
Scott: Remember all the talk about how nobody in the NFC West will get to .500? Here’s my not-so-bold prediction: Seattle will go 11-5 and grab a top 2 seed in the conference thanks to their weak schedule and the ineptitude of everyone else in the conference. Oakland by 2.5 as well.
Actual line: Oakland by 2.5. No points awarded.
PIT @ NO. Matt: Everything is falling into place for Pittsburgh right now, and catching the Saints in the corner. If New Orleans wants to regain their pride, they have to do it here. Big stage, top team coming to town. Saints by -2.
Scott: BenR Kelly hasn’t looked sharp since his comeback and nearly cost them the game Sunday with that ill-advised dive. But the Saints are at home, it’s a night game, they’re the champs.. New Orleans by 1.5.
Actual line: Pittsburgh by 1. Point to Scott.
HOU @ IND. Matt: Both teams coming off the bye. Manning's safety net out for the season. Houston looking for the sweep. Colts by -3.
Scott: The injuries are mounting for Indy, and in a tough AFC I could see them missing the playoffs, though who knows with Peyton Manning. Anything is possible and bettors know that, so the Colts are the favorites they probably shouldn’t be. Colts by 3.5.
Actual line: Indy by 5.5. Point to Scott.
Week score: 8-4 Scott
Year to date: 4-2-2 Scott
Less helmet hits this week led to more scoring, and less injuries, and I don't think anyone thinks we saw a poorer product on the field. The only thing I take out of the whole issue is that James Harrison was probably the kid on the playground that threatened to go home if the other boys and girls didn't play the way he wanted.
I'm coming for you like Ricky Bobby took it to Jean Girard, no more cheap half point wins for you this week... suspect...
Scott: We’re like opposites right now in that I can’t buy a betting win (5-9 this week), but I’m owning you here! Truth be told, I’d rather be on your end.
As for less helmet-to-helmet hits, we can agree that’s a good thing. All the defensive players whined, but here’s the thing… The NFL keeps going out of their way to protect OFFENSIVE players. Makes sense, people pay to see the Peyton Mannings and Adrian Petersons. But not one rule that I can think of in years has helped a defense (that I can think of). So now you have offenses that are allowed to run wild, and you can barely touch offensive players.
So what do defensive coaches and coordinators do? They teach you to try to do the one thing that is the great equalizer: Get the other team to turn the ball over. How do you do that? You hit the guy as hard as you can. You stick your helmet in there. And now you’re basically telling the defensive players you can’t do that either. We’re going to see a slew of 42-37 games now. I’m a defensive guy and I know there are people who like points, but that seems a little excessive. Who am I kidding, the NFL would love 66-58 games.
If the NFL wants to get rid of those sort of hits, then it needs to try and even things out for the defenses, or the only thing the defense can do to have a chance is hit hard, which will lead to borderline or sometimes blatantly dirty hits. Rant over. At least until the topic of Brett Favre comes up…
BUF @ KC. Matt: Wow, Buffalo finally gets up for a game and they get hosed by the refs, rough. Now they get the AFC West leading (Can you believe your boys would have had this prefix for at least 9 weeks?? And that is assuming they tank, and THE RAIDERS somehow get hot... hahaha, I love this league) Chiefs. KC has got to be careful this week, the Bills just got their hearts torn out last week, don't know if that helps or hinders them, but they're still winless, so I'm going with helps. Chiefs by *gulp* -11.5.
Scott: KC is winning their division. They’re going to go 12-4 and then lose to somebody like Indy or New England in the 2nd round of the playoffs, mark it down. Their schedule is marshmallowy soft, even though they are likely not one of the top 6 teams in the conference. That said, this line WILL be exactly KC by 7.5 (calling my shot!), because they won’t make the Bills double digit dogs after last week.
Actual line: Kansas City by 7.5. Point to Scott. (Do I get 2 for that one?)
GB @ NYJ. Matt: Despite more people giving more attention to Minnesota losing the Sunday Nighter, going in, that game definitely meant more to the Packers, they had lost 3 of 4 coming in, Rodgers needed to vanquish his sensei, it was must-win. Jets coming off the bye, arguably the best team in the League, and now Revis is 100%. Jets by -7.
Scott: I’m thinking these receivers on other teams are starting to look at a trip to Revis Island as a nice vacation destination. Not only because he’s injured, but because he’s overrated. Not sure what to make of the Packers right now with their injuries, but not the team you want to face banged up.. Jets by 3.
Actual line: Jets by 6. Point to Matt.
DEN @ SF. Matt: This one is technically a night game, live from London. This time we got the Sillynannies playing... the Sillynannies. Always an interesting scenario because there is no home field advantage since the site is neutral. Both teams coming in with some serious baggage (pun definately intended). So the question is, who benefits most from having this game played overseas? They're chanting for Tebow in Denver, and crazy-coach-guy has a 1-win team who lost to a winless team. I'll go with a pick.
Scott: I forgot which game was being played in London (which will be reflected in my line, I counted this as a 49er home game), but so mad you grabbed the Sillynannies reference first. I’d been saving that one all season, then forgot that the London game was this week. One question: How do you send these two teams if you want to sell the NFL in Europe? Can’t we just send them DVD’s of good teams? San Fran by 2.5.
Actual line: Pick. Point to Matt.
JAX @ DAL. Matt: I'm calling this line on the basis that the farmer is still calling the plays under center for the Jags. Jon Kitna for the 'Boys. Dallas by -1.
Scott: I was shocked when I saw Kitna last night, I didn’t even know he was in the league. I have no idea where they go with this line. Dallas by 2.5, cuz they're the Cowboys.
Actual line: Dallas by 6.5. Point to Scott.
CAR @ STL. Matt: Cats finally got the monkey off their back, the Rams found out what it's like to lose in the 4th quarter to J-Free. Rams have been great at home, can't trust Carolina just yet. St. Lunatics by -5.5.
Scott: How come St. Louis always gets a Nelly/Lunatics reference, but we never give one to Outkast for a Falcons game, E-40 or Too Short for an Oakland game, or Rick Ross for a Dolphins game? I’m calling you out for Midwest bias. Oh yeah, St. Louis by 3.5.
Actual line: St. Louis by 3. Point to Scott.
MIA @ CIN. Matt: Fish lost a heartbreaker on Sunday, but they are best on the road this year. I'm beginning to think that T.O. teams need him to bitch in press conferences MORE... He was heard loudest in Dallas and Philly, and those were playoff teams... hmmm. I also have this game as a pick.
Scott: I keep hearing all these closet Dolphins fans claiming they got screwed against Pittsburgh. Where did these people come from? And deal with it people, it was the right call. Cincy gets the home team benefit here, Bengals by 2.5.
Actual line: Cincinnati by 2. Point to Scott.
WAS @ DET. Matt: This is not a sexy offence some might have expected with McNabb coming to town, but they always seem to find different ways to win games. Stafford back for Detroit and it couldn't come soon enough. My third pick'em of the week...
Scott: I love when people say the Redskins ‘find ways to win.’ Like having a team like Dallas try running a stupid play at halftime and fumbling into an easy TD, or Green Bay doinking the winning field goal, or Jay Cutler throwing 4 picks to the same dude and still losing by only 3. Washington is terrible, and just incredibly lucky. But they get the benefit this week for playing the Lions, ‘Skins by 3.
Actual line: Detroit by 2.5. Point to Matt.
TEN @ SD. Matt: These two come in headed in opposite directions. Qualcomm still a tough place to play. I foresee a tight defensive game, all the way up til CJ breaks the game open, runs for at least 175. Titans by -4.
Scott: The lines on the Chargers have made no sense this year, and why not go one more week? In fairness, the Chargers dominated the Patriots aside from turnovers. They’re due to win one. San Diego by 2.
Actual line: San Diego by 3.5. Point to Scott.
TB @ ARI. Matt: They're starting to believe in this kid. On the other side, we're probably back to Derek Anderson? Really? Does he need another chance? Ah well... not my team. J-Free by -3.5.
Scott: Can’t we just put Kevin Kolb in Arizona already and be done with it? Or Kerry Collins at least? Arizona by 2.
Actual line: Cardinals by 3. Point to Scott.
MIN @ NE. Matt: Could we see the end of the streak? How many times will I have to hear about this thru the week? Fack! I think he'll play just because the Patriot pass rush isn't exactly the most terrifying in the league, he should be able to keep the jersey clean if he starts - you know he will. Pats by 6.
Scott: To answer your question, exactly 248 times (ok, maybe not EXACTLY, but if you're betting, take the over). This is so silly at this point. There is NOTHING Brett Favre can do where the media will turn on him. Sexually harass a team employee? Shove that under the rug. Then we have Favre playing up these injuries but being too ‘gutsy’ to come out of a game (not gutsy, selfish in the name of a streak).
He’ll throw a TD and he’s jumping around like a college kid. But then he throws a pick-6 and he’ll grab the elbow or limp around on the ankle for sympathy points. Even Cris Collinsworth was blaming Harvin and Moss for Favre’s interceptions, and he’s the most impartial announcer around. Oh well, only 10 more games left to go in this guy’s farewell tour. Oh yeah, Patriots by 3.5.
Actual line: New England by 5. Point to Matt.
SEA @ OAK. Matt: Oakland, and particularly their first half, scared people last week. All of the sudden, Seattle looks like they have a tough, gritty team, I may trust them on the road for the first time in a long time. Home fans should be jumpin. Raiders by -2.5.
Scott: Remember all the talk about how nobody in the NFC West will get to .500? Here’s my not-so-bold prediction: Seattle will go 11-5 and grab a top 2 seed in the conference thanks to their weak schedule and the ineptitude of everyone else in the conference. Oakland by 2.5 as well.
Actual line: Oakland by 2.5. No points awarded.
PIT @ NO. Matt: Everything is falling into place for Pittsburgh right now, and catching the Saints in the corner. If New Orleans wants to regain their pride, they have to do it here. Big stage, top team coming to town. Saints by -2.
Scott: BenR Kelly hasn’t looked sharp since his comeback and nearly cost them the game Sunday with that ill-advised dive. But the Saints are at home, it’s a night game, they’re the champs.. New Orleans by 1.5.
Actual line: Pittsburgh by 1. Point to Scott.
HOU @ IND. Matt: Both teams coming off the bye. Manning's safety net out for the season. Houston looking for the sweep. Colts by -3.
Scott: The injuries are mounting for Indy, and in a tough AFC I could see them missing the playoffs, though who knows with Peyton Manning. Anything is possible and bettors know that, so the Colts are the favorites they probably shouldn’t be. Colts by 3.5.
Actual line: Indy by 5.5. Point to Scott.
Week score: 8-4 Scott
Year to date: 4-2-2 Scott
Saturday, October 23, 2010
Week 7 NFL picks
Last week: 4-8-2
YTD: 44-44-2
You're reading this to see who my picks are? Hey I'm just happy you're reading this barely read blog, but I hope you're just taking the opposite of whatever I say. How I'm .500 on the picks is beyond me.. but in the gambling world, .500 means you lose money.
I'm due for a big week, right? Right? As an aside, your better bets this week are likely the over/under bets. With the new emphasis on head shots and unnecessarily hard tackles, the defenses could be a little tentative this week. While I'd say jump on the over, don't think Vegas hasn't thought of this already. The O/U lines will reflect the changes, and if anything, I think the unders are the play this week.
Jacksonville (+9.5) at Kansas City - There's rumours that that the Jaguars may dust off future Hall of Famer Todd Bouman for this one with David Garrard out and the Senator hurting. Whoever starts, 10 points is too much to lay with the Chiefs. You're still relying on Matt Cassel. I loved the Chiefs at the opening line of 4, but take the dogs here. And yes, I'm kind of hoping for a reverse jinx here and a crushing Chiefs victory. Pick: Jacksonville
Cleveland (+13) at New Orleans - Lost in last week's loss to Pittsburgh was that Colt McCoy completed almost 70% of his passes and threw for 281 yards against probably the top defense in the league. Combine that with Peyton Hillis and I think the Browns can keep this one close enough to cover. The Saints finally busted out last week against Tampa but I want to see it for one more week before we can declare them as being back. Pick: Cleveland
Philadelphia (+3) at Tennessee - One quick caveat: I've had trouble with both these teams all year. Both teams come in fairly hot, but Tennessee hasn't impressed me, losing the yardage battles to Dallas and the Giants but getting the win. Since Philly is without their deep threat in DeSean Jackson and the Titans seem to find ways to beat the NFC East, let's roll the dice with them. Pick: Tennessee
Cincinnati (+3.5) at Atlanta - I've been hyping Atlanta as the best team in the NFC for a few weeks now, and they keep disappointing me. I've also been saying the Bengals are done, and they keep proving me right. But why do I get a feeling this one is a field goal game? Pick: Cincinnati
Washington (+3) at Chicago - Chicago can't protect Jay Cutler. The Redskins defense gets a little more credit than it should, but they find ways to win and almost found a way to beat Peyton Manning in a night game. I can't bring myself to take the team that just lost to Seattle at home. Pick: Washington
Pittsburgh (-3) at Miami - Miami is our first home dog of the day, but they haven't won yet at home this year. This is one of those games where the team I think is the favorite grinds out a victory over a scrappy team, and proves they are a team to be reckoned with. Also, I think they eat a QB like Chad Henne alive. Pick: Pittsburgh
St. Louis (+3) at Tampa Bay - The last road game the Rams played, they got spanked 44-6 by the Lions. I can't trust them on the road yet. Pick: Tampa Bay
Buffalo (+13) at Baltimore - There is no way the Ravens lose this game, but this game screams 'BACK DOOR COVER!' The Bills can move the ball under Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Ravens' weakness is their secondary. I can see the Ravens up 17 and the Bills driving for a cheap score with a minute to play here. Pick: Buffalo
San Francisco (-2) at Carolina - There always has to be a dud somewhere on the schedule. This is another game I really don't know where to go. In this case, I'm going to go against the QB who is hitting barely 40% of his passes in Matt Moore. Which probably means this is the game DeAngelo Williams finally does something. Let's not discount the 'West Coast team playing an early game' factor, though that didn't bother Seattle last week. Pick: San Francisco
Arizona (+6.5) at Seattle - Arizona has won 6 of their last 7 against Seattle. Max Hall showed a semblance of a pulse in upsetting the Saints, and they're coming off a bye week. This feels like a field goal game. Pick: Arizona
Oakland (+8.5) at Denver - Denver has had a brutal schedule lately and hung tough in some of those games. The away team in this matchup has covered the last 4 games. Oakland burned me last week, but I can't take a 2-4 team giving up almost double digits. Pick: Oakland
New England (+3) at San Diego - This is probably the biggest WTF line of the week. The Chargers have looked awful. Everyone is going to be on the Patriots in this one, coming off a tough victory over the Ravens and with a nice 4-1 record. If they're going to give me a WTF line, sometimes it's best to make the WTF pick. Pick: San Diego
Minnesota (+2.5) at Green Bay - Did you hear this Britfav guy used to play for Green Bay? The Packers are beat up. The Vikings, while not as good as last year, are better than their record. Favre likes to annoy me and win these games so the announcers can verbally felate him. Pick: Minnesota
NY Giants (+3) at Dallas - So the 4-2 team visits the 1-4 team, and the 4-2 team GETS points? And the Giants have covered 4 of the last 5 times these teams have played? Seems too easy. The Cowboys are desperate, their season is on the line, it's Monday Night Football.. and isn't Eli Manning due for an Eli Manning game? He's only had the one against Tennessee, and we don't want anyone going 5-2 in the NFC. They might look like a contender that way. Pick: Dallas
YTD: 44-44-2
You're reading this to see who my picks are? Hey I'm just happy you're reading this barely read blog, but I hope you're just taking the opposite of whatever I say. How I'm .500 on the picks is beyond me.. but in the gambling world, .500 means you lose money.
I'm due for a big week, right? Right? As an aside, your better bets this week are likely the over/under bets. With the new emphasis on head shots and unnecessarily hard tackles, the defenses could be a little tentative this week. While I'd say jump on the over, don't think Vegas hasn't thought of this already. The O/U lines will reflect the changes, and if anything, I think the unders are the play this week.
Jacksonville (+9.5) at Kansas City - There's rumours that that the Jaguars may dust off future Hall of Famer Todd Bouman for this one with David Garrard out and the Senator hurting. Whoever starts, 10 points is too much to lay with the Chiefs. You're still relying on Matt Cassel. I loved the Chiefs at the opening line of 4, but take the dogs here. And yes, I'm kind of hoping for a reverse jinx here and a crushing Chiefs victory. Pick: Jacksonville
Cleveland (+13) at New Orleans - Lost in last week's loss to Pittsburgh was that Colt McCoy completed almost 70% of his passes and threw for 281 yards against probably the top defense in the league. Combine that with Peyton Hillis and I think the Browns can keep this one close enough to cover. The Saints finally busted out last week against Tampa but I want to see it for one more week before we can declare them as being back. Pick: Cleveland
Philadelphia (+3) at Tennessee - One quick caveat: I've had trouble with both these teams all year. Both teams come in fairly hot, but Tennessee hasn't impressed me, losing the yardage battles to Dallas and the Giants but getting the win. Since Philly is without their deep threat in DeSean Jackson and the Titans seem to find ways to beat the NFC East, let's roll the dice with them. Pick: Tennessee
Cincinnati (+3.5) at Atlanta - I've been hyping Atlanta as the best team in the NFC for a few weeks now, and they keep disappointing me. I've also been saying the Bengals are done, and they keep proving me right. But why do I get a feeling this one is a field goal game? Pick: Cincinnati
Washington (+3) at Chicago - Chicago can't protect Jay Cutler. The Redskins defense gets a little more credit than it should, but they find ways to win and almost found a way to beat Peyton Manning in a night game. I can't bring myself to take the team that just lost to Seattle at home. Pick: Washington
Pittsburgh (-3) at Miami - Miami is our first home dog of the day, but they haven't won yet at home this year. This is one of those games where the team I think is the favorite grinds out a victory over a scrappy team, and proves they are a team to be reckoned with. Also, I think they eat a QB like Chad Henne alive. Pick: Pittsburgh
St. Louis (+3) at Tampa Bay - The last road game the Rams played, they got spanked 44-6 by the Lions. I can't trust them on the road yet. Pick: Tampa Bay
Buffalo (+13) at Baltimore - There is no way the Ravens lose this game, but this game screams 'BACK DOOR COVER!' The Bills can move the ball under Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Ravens' weakness is their secondary. I can see the Ravens up 17 and the Bills driving for a cheap score with a minute to play here. Pick: Buffalo
San Francisco (-2) at Carolina - There always has to be a dud somewhere on the schedule. This is another game I really don't know where to go. In this case, I'm going to go against the QB who is hitting barely 40% of his passes in Matt Moore. Which probably means this is the game DeAngelo Williams finally does something. Let's not discount the 'West Coast team playing an early game' factor, though that didn't bother Seattle last week. Pick: San Francisco
Arizona (+6.5) at Seattle - Arizona has won 6 of their last 7 against Seattle. Max Hall showed a semblance of a pulse in upsetting the Saints, and they're coming off a bye week. This feels like a field goal game. Pick: Arizona
Oakland (+8.5) at Denver - Denver has had a brutal schedule lately and hung tough in some of those games. The away team in this matchup has covered the last 4 games. Oakland burned me last week, but I can't take a 2-4 team giving up almost double digits. Pick: Oakland
New England (+3) at San Diego - This is probably the biggest WTF line of the week. The Chargers have looked awful. Everyone is going to be on the Patriots in this one, coming off a tough victory over the Ravens and with a nice 4-1 record. If they're going to give me a WTF line, sometimes it's best to make the WTF pick. Pick: San Diego
Minnesota (+2.5) at Green Bay - Did you hear this Britfav guy used to play for Green Bay? The Packers are beat up. The Vikings, while not as good as last year, are better than their record. Favre likes to annoy me and win these games so the announcers can verbally felate him. Pick: Minnesota
NY Giants (+3) at Dallas - So the 4-2 team visits the 1-4 team, and the 4-2 team GETS points? And the Giants have covered 4 of the last 5 times these teams have played? Seems too easy. The Cowboys are desperate, their season is on the line, it's Monday Night Football.. and isn't Eli Manning due for an Eli Manning game? He's only had the one against Tennessee, and we don't want anyone going 5-2 in the NFC. They might look like a contender that way. Pick: Dallas
Tuesday, October 19, 2010
Week 7 Guess The Lines
Matt: Six weeks in the books, and no team in the NFC is better than 4-2... Five teams are tied for tops in the division, eight if you include the three teams a half game back due to byes. The story not much different in the AFC, but at least there are three 1-loss teams to hold up. After an OT win at home over the then-best team in the league Baltimore Ravens, errrrrrybody is talking about the Patriots with such high regard comparing them to the Super Bowl teams of the early millenium. No one is speaking very highly of my picks this season however, 41-49... ouch... Time for a consolation win in this weeks guess the lines. Let's Go!
(BTW, Madden 11 = Gus Johnson on tap, "IT'S SECOND AND TEN, FROM THE SEVEN-TEEN!!!!", yeah, it's like that)
Scott: Yeah my picks stink this year too.. I’m impressed by the use of errrrrybody. Whatever happened to J-Kwon? He seemed destined for stardom after “Tipsy,” didn’t he? Mind you, I’m the guy who still thinks the B. Brown Posse might have a hit in them. Probably not the best guy to ask for who's going to be a hitmaker.
As I said in my weekly NFL thoughts, there is not one NFC team I would definitely put above the top 8 in the AFC. As things currently stand, I think there are teams who will miss the playoffs in the AFC who might be better than whoever the NFC sends to the Super Bowl.
I hope you got your game face on, cuz aside from a couple injury concern games, I like my guesses this week for the first time this year.
CIN @ ATL. Matt: Falcons still have some growing up to do on the road, but you know what they do at home. Bengals coming off a bye week and loss to J-Free and the Privateers. ATL by 6.5.
Scott: People still think the Bengals are good for some reason and te Falcons came off a pretty big loss. Atlanta by 4.5
Actual line: Falcons by 3. Point to Scott.
BUF @ BAL. Matt: Bills also coming off the bye, still without a W. Baltimore is 0-2 versus the AFC East thus far... hmmm... Ravens by -15.
Scott: This seems like a proverbial ‘will the spread be 13 or 14’ game. I’m splitting the difference. Ravens by 13.5
Actual line: Ravens by 13. Point to Scott.
SF @ CAR. Matt: Angry guy gets first win. His methods DO work... They're OK! Easy division, they can still make the playoffs!... How else can we over-congratulate this 1-win team? 9ers by 3.5.
Scott: Do the guys who announce this game even put it on their resumés? Can we demote the loser to the CFL? Can we use the video of this game to torture suspected terrorists? 49ers by 1.5.
Actual line: San Francisco by 3. Point to Matt.
WAS @ CHI. Matt: Tough schedule for the Skins, but they've come this far at .500. So Cutler won't throw as many picks this year, but he's going to make up for it with sacks? Bears by 4.
Scott: The ‘Skins play hard, but they should be 1-5 if not for 2 plays that bounced their way. The Bears can’t protect Cutler right now, and they shouldn’t have as good a record as they do. Sad thing is, this might be your Buck-Aikman game on FOX this week. Bears by 2.5.
Actual line: Chicago by 3. Point to Scott.
PIT @ MIA. Matt: Top-2 team in the league visiting the fish who are winless at home. Could be ugly. Steelers by 6.
Scott: Miami is still the home team, and home teams get respect in big games. But I don’t trust any team who’s defense is led by an ex-CFLer (Cameron Wake), that’s for sure. Steelers by 2.5.
Actual line: Pittsburgh by 3. Point to Scott.
PHI @ TEN. Matt: DeSean Jackson doesn't remember the wicked hit that will leave him out of this game with a concussion. Still no Vick. Kolb has started against a winless 9ers team, and a shotty ATL road squad, this one won't be so easy. Titans slightly overvalued again here. My boys by -5.
Scott: I’m assuming a discount because of VY’s knee injury, though it sounds like they held him out as a precaution. DeSean Jackson needs to be held out for the season. A serious concussion and they’re talking about bringing him back after the bye, but Justin Morneau sits out a season with a less severe one in baseball? I sense a rant coming, so I’ll stop now. Titans by 1.5.
Actual line: Tennessee by 3. Point to Scott.
STL @ TB. Matt: Battle of two of this season's good stories. Rams winless on the road however. Buccs by 2.5.
Scott: One of these teams will have 4 wins at the end of this game. Most people didn’t think they’d have 4 all season. Tampa by 3.
Actual line: Tampa by 2.5. Point to Matt.
CLE @ NO. Matt: I'm not sure if the Saints are getting anyone back from injury, but I'll guess on the basis of their record. Colt McCoy got the Steel Curtain and then the Superdome for his first 2 weeks, rough. Saints by 9.5.
Scott: Saints get the champ tax applied again after an easy win, people think Cleveland sucks. Watch out for this team if they start getting some easier games though. New Orleans by 12.5.
Actual line: New Orleans by 13.5. Point to Scott.
JAX @ KC. Matt: Could we actually see the Chiefs lay some points this week?? Vegas will test that water this week. How does it feel to be out of the dog house? KC by 3.
Scott: I’d feel better if they were 4-1. They should have had that game, but some shoddy officiating down the stretch and then some bad defense gave the game away. KC by 3.5.
Actual line: Kansas City by 4. Point to Scott.
ARI @ SEA. Matt: This game is for the division lead. Huge win for Seattle last week, got close down the stretch but they held on. Hawks by -4.5.
Scott: The addition of Marshawn Lynch is going to be very big for Seattle. He’s a legitimate #1 back, and why the Packers and Saints didn’t try to get him still boggles me. Seahawks by 4.
Actual line: Seahawks by 6. Point to Matt.
NE @ SD. Chargers have won every home game and lost every road game. However both home wins were to the Cards and Jags. The Pats should be a stiffer test. I'm gonna go low on this one... Pats by -1.
Scott: People are starting to clue in that the Chargers aren’t any good. Patriots make the big trip west after a huge win at home, people think they’re good and don’t have holes again. Patriots by 2.5.
Actual line: San Diego by 3. Point to Matt.
OAK @ DEN. Matt: Raiders are winless on the road. Six weeks in and still can't get a good read on this Bronco team. They could be a red herring. Ponys by -5.5.
Scott: Denver isn’t that good and they are a one-trick pony for sure as they can’t run the ball. Have the Raiders called up JaMarcus Russell again yet? Who’s their QB this week? Broncos by 3.5.
Actual line: Denver by 6.5 Point to Matt.
MIN @ GB. Matt: What a difference a couple weeks makes, after winning their last 2 of 3, and trading for Randy Moss, the Vikes are looking up, only a half game at the battered Pack and eying a chance to get into 2nd place in that division and once again a part of the conversation. Its clear by this point that the coroner will have to drag Favre's corpse off the field before he vacates the starting job. Minny left with a heavily talented team with a firecracker at QB. Pack by -2.
Scott: Or, Roger Goodell can sit Favre down for personal conduct. It’ll never happen though, that story got brushed under the rug fast by the NFL. I think the spread on this game has been home team by 3 as long as I can remember, so I’m going with it one more time. Packers by 3.
Actual line: Green Bay by 3. Point to Scott.
NYG @ DAL. Matt: I'm no Giants fan, but is everyone hoping that this is the knockout punch for the Cowboys? Big divisional game, at the Palace-in-Dallas. I'm tired of the the extended shots of Romo sulking in the locker room. What 1-win team deserves this much attention?? Giants by 2.5.
Scott: The Cowboys would get that much attention if they were 1 and 500. But if they aren’t desperate this week, they’ll never be. Dallas by 2.5.
Actual line: Dallas by 3. Point to Scott.
A late flurry from Matt, but Scott takes the week 9-5.
Season: 3-2-1 Scott.
(BTW, Madden 11 = Gus Johnson on tap, "IT'S SECOND AND TEN, FROM THE SEVEN-TEEN!!!!", yeah, it's like that)
Scott: Yeah my picks stink this year too.. I’m impressed by the use of errrrrybody. Whatever happened to J-Kwon? He seemed destined for stardom after “Tipsy,” didn’t he? Mind you, I’m the guy who still thinks the B. Brown Posse might have a hit in them. Probably not the best guy to ask for who's going to be a hitmaker.
As I said in my weekly NFL thoughts, there is not one NFC team I would definitely put above the top 8 in the AFC. As things currently stand, I think there are teams who will miss the playoffs in the AFC who might be better than whoever the NFC sends to the Super Bowl.
I hope you got your game face on, cuz aside from a couple injury concern games, I like my guesses this week for the first time this year.
CIN @ ATL. Matt: Falcons still have some growing up to do on the road, but you know what they do at home. Bengals coming off a bye week and loss to J-Free and the Privateers. ATL by 6.5.
Scott: People still think the Bengals are good for some reason and te Falcons came off a pretty big loss. Atlanta by 4.5
Actual line: Falcons by 3. Point to Scott.
BUF @ BAL. Matt: Bills also coming off the bye, still without a W. Baltimore is 0-2 versus the AFC East thus far... hmmm... Ravens by -15.
Scott: This seems like a proverbial ‘will the spread be 13 or 14’ game. I’m splitting the difference. Ravens by 13.5
Actual line: Ravens by 13. Point to Scott.
SF @ CAR. Matt: Angry guy gets first win. His methods DO work... They're OK! Easy division, they can still make the playoffs!... How else can we over-congratulate this 1-win team? 9ers by 3.5.
Scott: Do the guys who announce this game even put it on their resumés? Can we demote the loser to the CFL? Can we use the video of this game to torture suspected terrorists? 49ers by 1.5.
Actual line: San Francisco by 3. Point to Matt.
WAS @ CHI. Matt: Tough schedule for the Skins, but they've come this far at .500. So Cutler won't throw as many picks this year, but he's going to make up for it with sacks? Bears by 4.
Scott: The ‘Skins play hard, but they should be 1-5 if not for 2 plays that bounced their way. The Bears can’t protect Cutler right now, and they shouldn’t have as good a record as they do. Sad thing is, this might be your Buck-Aikman game on FOX this week. Bears by 2.5.
Actual line: Chicago by 3. Point to Scott.
PIT @ MIA. Matt: Top-2 team in the league visiting the fish who are winless at home. Could be ugly. Steelers by 6.
Scott: Miami is still the home team, and home teams get respect in big games. But I don’t trust any team who’s defense is led by an ex-CFLer (Cameron Wake), that’s for sure. Steelers by 2.5.
Actual line: Pittsburgh by 3. Point to Scott.
PHI @ TEN. Matt: DeSean Jackson doesn't remember the wicked hit that will leave him out of this game with a concussion. Still no Vick. Kolb has started against a winless 9ers team, and a shotty ATL road squad, this one won't be so easy. Titans slightly overvalued again here. My boys by -5.
Scott: I’m assuming a discount because of VY’s knee injury, though it sounds like they held him out as a precaution. DeSean Jackson needs to be held out for the season. A serious concussion and they’re talking about bringing him back after the bye, but Justin Morneau sits out a season with a less severe one in baseball? I sense a rant coming, so I’ll stop now. Titans by 1.5.
Actual line: Tennessee by 3. Point to Scott.
STL @ TB. Matt: Battle of two of this season's good stories. Rams winless on the road however. Buccs by 2.5.
Scott: One of these teams will have 4 wins at the end of this game. Most people didn’t think they’d have 4 all season. Tampa by 3.
Actual line: Tampa by 2.5. Point to Matt.
CLE @ NO. Matt: I'm not sure if the Saints are getting anyone back from injury, but I'll guess on the basis of their record. Colt McCoy got the Steel Curtain and then the Superdome for his first 2 weeks, rough. Saints by 9.5.
Scott: Saints get the champ tax applied again after an easy win, people think Cleveland sucks. Watch out for this team if they start getting some easier games though. New Orleans by 12.5.
Actual line: New Orleans by 13.5. Point to Scott.
JAX @ KC. Matt: Could we actually see the Chiefs lay some points this week?? Vegas will test that water this week. How does it feel to be out of the dog house? KC by 3.
Scott: I’d feel better if they were 4-1. They should have had that game, but some shoddy officiating down the stretch and then some bad defense gave the game away. KC by 3.5.
Actual line: Kansas City by 4. Point to Scott.
ARI @ SEA. Matt: This game is for the division lead. Huge win for Seattle last week, got close down the stretch but they held on. Hawks by -4.5.
Scott: The addition of Marshawn Lynch is going to be very big for Seattle. He’s a legitimate #1 back, and why the Packers and Saints didn’t try to get him still boggles me. Seahawks by 4.
Actual line: Seahawks by 6. Point to Matt.
NE @ SD. Chargers have won every home game and lost every road game. However both home wins were to the Cards and Jags. The Pats should be a stiffer test. I'm gonna go low on this one... Pats by -1.
Scott: People are starting to clue in that the Chargers aren’t any good. Patriots make the big trip west after a huge win at home, people think they’re good and don’t have holes again. Patriots by 2.5.
Actual line: San Diego by 3. Point to Matt.
OAK @ DEN. Matt: Raiders are winless on the road. Six weeks in and still can't get a good read on this Bronco team. They could be a red herring. Ponys by -5.5.
Scott: Denver isn’t that good and they are a one-trick pony for sure as they can’t run the ball. Have the Raiders called up JaMarcus Russell again yet? Who’s their QB this week? Broncos by 3.5.
Actual line: Denver by 6.5 Point to Matt.
MIN @ GB. Matt: What a difference a couple weeks makes, after winning their last 2 of 3, and trading for Randy Moss, the Vikes are looking up, only a half game at the battered Pack and eying a chance to get into 2nd place in that division and once again a part of the conversation. Its clear by this point that the coroner will have to drag Favre's corpse off the field before he vacates the starting job. Minny left with a heavily talented team with a firecracker at QB. Pack by -2.
Scott: Or, Roger Goodell can sit Favre down for personal conduct. It’ll never happen though, that story got brushed under the rug fast by the NFL. I think the spread on this game has been home team by 3 as long as I can remember, so I’m going with it one more time. Packers by 3.
Actual line: Green Bay by 3. Point to Scott.
NYG @ DAL. Matt: I'm no Giants fan, but is everyone hoping that this is the knockout punch for the Cowboys? Big divisional game, at the Palace-in-Dallas. I'm tired of the the extended shots of Romo sulking in the locker room. What 1-win team deserves this much attention?? Giants by 2.5.
Scott: The Cowboys would get that much attention if they were 1 and 500. But if they aren’t desperate this week, they’ll never be. Dallas by 2.5.
Actual line: Dallas by 3. Point to Scott.
A late flurry from Matt, but Scott takes the week 9-5.
Season: 3-2-1 Scott.
Monday, October 18, 2010
Dexter - Season 5, Episodes 3 & 4, "Practically Perfect" and "Beauty and the Beast"
So both the Dexter and Boardwalk Empire reviews will be 2 episodes in one this week. I've been under the weather and so has my little almost-2 year old.
We'll start with 'Practically Perfect.' Dexter continues his pursuit of Boyd Fowler, but his work has gotten sloppy. He ends up taking a tranquilizer dart from Boyd at the same time he gives the sleepy time medicine to the neck, and both end up passed out on the side of the road and end up taken to the emergency ward. Both wake up and realize what has happened, and Boyd tries to kill him in the hospital, but Dexter has escaped.
Dexter and Deb also go about finding a nanny for Harrison, and of course Deb interrogates the candidates like she would a murder suspect. It's nice that somebody will take care of the little one, as let's face it, we all want to see Dexter on the hunt for more kills.
LaGuerta finds out Batista will be possibly charged or suspended for his bar fight. Personally, I don't care about this story. Get back to Dexter and things that involve him.
Deb is off chasing a serial killer that is chopping off its victims' heads in the Venezuelan section of town. I think the rookie cop she's mentoring might know a little more than she's letting on right now. Just a hunch though. By the way, does the Tourism Board of Miami have any issues with this show? Between this and CSI: Miami, you'd think Miami is full of gangs and serial killers if you'd never been there.
Quinn is still trying to get with Deb as he chases down her brother Dexter. This story is getting creepier and creepier. Nobody would do what Quinn is doing. A one-time, heat of the moment hook up, sure.
The episode ends with Dexter chasing down Boyd Fowler again, succeeding this time and killing Boyd with our first staple killing by Dexter this year (victim tied to a table, Dexter cuts the cheek and saves some blood, tells them why they're being killed, then plunges the knife through the heart). Sometimes things feel good when you know you can count on them. But wait! Right after the killing, as Dexter realizes he doesn't feel any better after the kill, he realizes a girl is alive in the house and has seen everything.
A solid episode. Anything with a kill by Dexter goes up at least a letter grade, and aside from the boring LaGuerta/Batista subplot, this episode did everything it should.
Grade: B
The next episode picks up with Dexter trying to calm down the girl named Lumen who has seen him, played by Julia Stiles, who looks like she's aged about 20 years since Save the Last Dance (admit it, you watched it too). Harry wants Dexter to kill her too, but Dexter wants to help her. That's one of the most interesting plots of this season. Harry's code is gone. Dexter doesn't know who he is any more. He's part serial killer, part brother, part father. In the past, everything took a back seat to serial killer.
Lumen has been held captive by Boyd and likely raped, and likely not just by Boyd. It's obvious she's had a rough life and Dexter wants to help. Lumen doesn't want to trust Dexter, but by the end of the episode she starts to, even though Dexter is forced to confine her. What will become of Lumen? Will she become Dexter's friend? Will she become his partner? Or will Dexter be forced to kill her too to protect himself and Harrison?
Quinn goes beyond protocol to find the Trinity Killer's son to show a picture of Dexter and ask if Dexter is Kyle Morgan. Before the kid can answer, Quinn is arrested and put on suspension by LaGuerta. We're entering unbelievable territory here with Dexter and the Miami PD now. Doakes was suspicious of Dexter in Season 1 and ended up dead. Quinn is now suspicious. Odds are he'll be dead by season's end too. How does a smart woman like LaGuerta ignore the signs when many of her top detectives think there's something up with one of her employees?
The storylines not involving Dexter finally picked up this week. LaGuerta/Batista took logical steps as she tried to keep his ass out of jail, making him apologize to the other cop who he stomped out, but internal affairs still wants to press charges.
The Santa Muerta murders also showed Dexter coming back to work to analyze the spatter, and he guesses that a machete has been used to do the beheadings. Deb gets a lead and almost arrests a suspect, but is detained by a guy with a gushing jugular (from a machete, of course!) before she can make an arrest. Even so, this investigation is picking up and I don't care as much when it pulls time away from Dexter.
The action for Dexter slowed down a little bit for Dexter this week as the interaction between him and Lumen took the forefront. There were no Dexter killings, but the B-storylines didn't annoy me for once. I wss worried about this season, but the Dexter character is truly compelling with his emotions.
Grade: C+
We'll start with 'Practically Perfect.' Dexter continues his pursuit of Boyd Fowler, but his work has gotten sloppy. He ends up taking a tranquilizer dart from Boyd at the same time he gives the sleepy time medicine to the neck, and both end up passed out on the side of the road and end up taken to the emergency ward. Both wake up and realize what has happened, and Boyd tries to kill him in the hospital, but Dexter has escaped.
Dexter and Deb also go about finding a nanny for Harrison, and of course Deb interrogates the candidates like she would a murder suspect. It's nice that somebody will take care of the little one, as let's face it, we all want to see Dexter on the hunt for more kills.
LaGuerta finds out Batista will be possibly charged or suspended for his bar fight. Personally, I don't care about this story. Get back to Dexter and things that involve him.
Deb is off chasing a serial killer that is chopping off its victims' heads in the Venezuelan section of town. I think the rookie cop she's mentoring might know a little more than she's letting on right now. Just a hunch though. By the way, does the Tourism Board of Miami have any issues with this show? Between this and CSI: Miami, you'd think Miami is full of gangs and serial killers if you'd never been there.
Quinn is still trying to get with Deb as he chases down her brother Dexter. This story is getting creepier and creepier. Nobody would do what Quinn is doing. A one-time, heat of the moment hook up, sure.
The episode ends with Dexter chasing down Boyd Fowler again, succeeding this time and killing Boyd with our first staple killing by Dexter this year (victim tied to a table, Dexter cuts the cheek and saves some blood, tells them why they're being killed, then plunges the knife through the heart). Sometimes things feel good when you know you can count on them. But wait! Right after the killing, as Dexter realizes he doesn't feel any better after the kill, he realizes a girl is alive in the house and has seen everything.
A solid episode. Anything with a kill by Dexter goes up at least a letter grade, and aside from the boring LaGuerta/Batista subplot, this episode did everything it should.
Grade: B
The next episode picks up with Dexter trying to calm down the girl named Lumen who has seen him, played by Julia Stiles, who looks like she's aged about 20 years since Save the Last Dance (admit it, you watched it too). Harry wants Dexter to kill her too, but Dexter wants to help her. That's one of the most interesting plots of this season. Harry's code is gone. Dexter doesn't know who he is any more. He's part serial killer, part brother, part father. In the past, everything took a back seat to serial killer.
Lumen has been held captive by Boyd and likely raped, and likely not just by Boyd. It's obvious she's had a rough life and Dexter wants to help. Lumen doesn't want to trust Dexter, but by the end of the episode she starts to, even though Dexter is forced to confine her. What will become of Lumen? Will she become Dexter's friend? Will she become his partner? Or will Dexter be forced to kill her too to protect himself and Harrison?
Quinn goes beyond protocol to find the Trinity Killer's son to show a picture of Dexter and ask if Dexter is Kyle Morgan. Before the kid can answer, Quinn is arrested and put on suspension by LaGuerta. We're entering unbelievable territory here with Dexter and the Miami PD now. Doakes was suspicious of Dexter in Season 1 and ended up dead. Quinn is now suspicious. Odds are he'll be dead by season's end too. How does a smart woman like LaGuerta ignore the signs when many of her top detectives think there's something up with one of her employees?
The storylines not involving Dexter finally picked up this week. LaGuerta/Batista took logical steps as she tried to keep his ass out of jail, making him apologize to the other cop who he stomped out, but internal affairs still wants to press charges.
The Santa Muerta murders also showed Dexter coming back to work to analyze the spatter, and he guesses that a machete has been used to do the beheadings. Deb gets a lead and almost arrests a suspect, but is detained by a guy with a gushing jugular (from a machete, of course!) before she can make an arrest. Even so, this investigation is picking up and I don't care as much when it pulls time away from Dexter.
The action for Dexter slowed down a little bit for Dexter this week as the interaction between him and Lumen took the forefront. There were no Dexter killings, but the B-storylines didn't annoy me for once. I wss worried about this season, but the Dexter character is truly compelling with his emotions.
Grade: C+
Week 6 NFL thoughts
Some random thoughts from the week that was:
- Nobody wants to hear fantasy football stories, but it's my blog so too bad, if you don't like it, skip to the next point. I was down by a half point with less than 2 minutes to play in the Monday nighter and I have Chris Johnson on my team. I need 4 yards to get the extra point for yardage and the win, Titans have the ball and its 2nd and 5. Two runs later by Johnson for no yards and I'm done. But wait! Since they are at the Jacksonville 35 (the classic don't punt and don't run up the score with a field goal spot) and up 20 points late in the game, Jeff Fisher decides to run the ball again. Johnson goes 35 yards for the TD and the easy fantasy win. Sometimes it's good to be lucky.
- The entire AFC West lost. This division is bad, but it's Kansas City's for the taking with their easy schedule. They've been in every game they've played and should be 4-1 if not for some bad refereeing at the end of their game with Houston. Gamblers who took Houston were thrilled as the late Houston victory also covered the spread, but that's of no consolation to the Chiefs or their fans. But with their cupcake schedule, they could conceivably be 12-4 at the end of the season.
- While the entire AFC West lost, the entire NFC West (sans Arizona on a bye week) won their games. Wouldn't it be something if they managed to sneak 2 teams into the playoffs? In the wide open NFC, anything is possible. At the very least, it makes the Rams-Seahawks games we're subjected to in the Pacific Northwest tolerable.
- Speaking of the wide open NFC, the Giants appear to be the best team right now, but that's not really saying much right now. Expect that team to change almost weekly. You could make a case for the following teams being the top team in the conference and you wouldn't necessarily be wrong: Giants, Eagles, Saints, Falcons, Bears or Packers. And the Vikings, Cardinals, Seahawks, Rams, Bucs and Redskins are still in the mix for the playoffs.
- Who do I like most this week in the AFC? I think the Steelers deserve the top spot right now but the Jets are right there, and the Ravens are right behind them. Those are your 3 top teams in the NFL right now, and they're head and shoulders above everyone right now. And then there is still the Patriots, Dolphins, Colts, Texans and Titans. Sad thing is, I think almost any of those 8 teams would be the top team in the NFC. The difference right now is huge.
- Last, the NFL had a slew of helmet-to-helmet hits this weekend. Rodney Harrison of NBC made a decent observation in that he used to put aside money for fines he knew he'd get in the name of preserving his image, and that the only way to curb the behavior is to suspend these players, knowing they will disappoint their teams by sitting out games. Today, the NFL announces they are going to actually suspend these players.
Now, I agree these offense are suspension-worthy. However, you can't change the rules and suspend these players now for something that last week would have netted them a fine. You have to fine the players for this week and then announce no further hits will be tolerated and THEN start suspending guys in the future. Either way, we're heading towards a glorified game of flag football in the not-too-distant future. The players are too fast and too big to maintain the game in its current form without somebody dying on the field.
- Nobody wants to hear fantasy football stories, but it's my blog so too bad, if you don't like it, skip to the next point. I was down by a half point with less than 2 minutes to play in the Monday nighter and I have Chris Johnson on my team. I need 4 yards to get the extra point for yardage and the win, Titans have the ball and its 2nd and 5. Two runs later by Johnson for no yards and I'm done. But wait! Since they are at the Jacksonville 35 (the classic don't punt and don't run up the score with a field goal spot) and up 20 points late in the game, Jeff Fisher decides to run the ball again. Johnson goes 35 yards for the TD and the easy fantasy win. Sometimes it's good to be lucky.
- The entire AFC West lost. This division is bad, but it's Kansas City's for the taking with their easy schedule. They've been in every game they've played and should be 4-1 if not for some bad refereeing at the end of their game with Houston. Gamblers who took Houston were thrilled as the late Houston victory also covered the spread, but that's of no consolation to the Chiefs or their fans. But with their cupcake schedule, they could conceivably be 12-4 at the end of the season.
- While the entire AFC West lost, the entire NFC West (sans Arizona on a bye week) won their games. Wouldn't it be something if they managed to sneak 2 teams into the playoffs? In the wide open NFC, anything is possible. At the very least, it makes the Rams-Seahawks games we're subjected to in the Pacific Northwest tolerable.
- Speaking of the wide open NFC, the Giants appear to be the best team right now, but that's not really saying much right now. Expect that team to change almost weekly. You could make a case for the following teams being the top team in the conference and you wouldn't necessarily be wrong: Giants, Eagles, Saints, Falcons, Bears or Packers. And the Vikings, Cardinals, Seahawks, Rams, Bucs and Redskins are still in the mix for the playoffs.
- Who do I like most this week in the AFC? I think the Steelers deserve the top spot right now but the Jets are right there, and the Ravens are right behind them. Those are your 3 top teams in the NFL right now, and they're head and shoulders above everyone right now. And then there is still the Patriots, Dolphins, Colts, Texans and Titans. Sad thing is, I think almost any of those 8 teams would be the top team in the NFC. The difference right now is huge.
- Last, the NFL had a slew of helmet-to-helmet hits this weekend. Rodney Harrison of NBC made a decent observation in that he used to put aside money for fines he knew he'd get in the name of preserving his image, and that the only way to curb the behavior is to suspend these players, knowing they will disappoint their teams by sitting out games. Today, the NFL announces they are going to actually suspend these players.
Now, I agree these offense are suspension-worthy. However, you can't change the rules and suspend these players now for something that last week would have netted them a fine. You have to fine the players for this week and then announce no further hits will be tolerated and THEN start suspending guys in the future. Either way, we're heading towards a glorified game of flag football in the not-too-distant future. The players are too fast and too big to maintain the game in its current form without somebody dying on the field.
Friday, October 15, 2010
Week 6 NFL picks
Week 5: 5-9
YTD: 40-36
The dogs are barking loud the last few weeks. They are 47-29 against the spread in 2010 and that rate is even higher the last few weeks. I made the mistake of thinking the correction week was coming last week, and a Brett Favre pick-6 was all that stood between me and double digit losses. The week where all the favorites win is on its way. It might be this week even. But for now, you at least have to ride some of the dogs.
Atlanta (+2.5) at Philadelphia – If I had to bet my life on one team to come out of the NFL, right now it’s the Falcons. That’s not saying a lot, as I still don’t think they’re a top 5 team in the whole league. I don’t trust Kevin Kolb yet. Philly is one of those teams that is beating up bad teams and losing against good teams. Atlanta is a good team. Pick: Atlanta
Cleveland (+14.5) at Pittsburgh – The Browns are not as terrible as some might think. They’re feeding Colt McCoy to the wolves, er Steelers, this week, but is he really any worse than Jake Delhomme or Seneca Wallace? Cleveland has only lost 1 game by double digits, that being by 10 to Atlanta thanks to a Delhomme pick-6 at the end of the game. There will be hype on this being Ben Roethlisberger’s first game back and there will be some rust. And let’s not forget about Cleveland’s new secret weapon, the Great White Hope, Peyton Hillis. Pick: Cleveland
Seattle (+6) at Chicago – Should Chicago really be laying 6 points to anyone? We know Seattle is terrible on the road. Jay Cutler has had 2 weeks to shake out the cobwebs the Giants gave him. I like Matt Forte to have a big game in this one. Pick: Chicago
Detroit (+10) at NY Giants – Possibly no Calvin Johnson in this one, meaning if the Giants can control Jahvid Best, they can tee off on Shaun Hill. I think the Giants rely on the Bradshaw-Jacobs combo to control the clock and win this one fairly easily, there's bound to be some letdown from the Lions. Pick: NY Giants.
Baltimore (+3) at New England – This line makes no sense, as Baltimore is looking to challenge for the title right now. New England is one-dimensional and the Ravens kill teams like this (like they did last week with Denver). But the Patriots have had 2 weeks to prepare for this one, and it’s a revenge game from last year’s playoffs. Plus, everyone and their dog are going to be on Baltimore here. Time for a hunch pick. Pick: New England
San Diego (-9) at St. Louis – The Rams looked terrible giving the Lions their greatest margin of victory in well, forever. Ok that’s not true but it sure felt like it. San Diego couldn’t beat Oakland on the road, and they’ve looked bad in every road game. This is an early start and West Coast teams usually don’t play well in these. Pick: St. Louis
Miami (+3.5) at Green Bay – Aaron Rodgers looks to be playing, but last week proved that the Packers can’t run the ball. Julius Jones and his pack a day habit won’t help that. Miami comes in off 2 tough division losses and a bye. Miami is 2-0 on the road and seems to play better away from home, but their special teams is terrible. Even so, I think their defense keeps this one close enough. Pick: Miami
New Orleans (-4) at Tampa Bay – Have we figured out yet that Tampa Bay isn’t that bad? And that New Orleans can’t run the ball? And that Josh Freeman can make plays? The Super Bowl mojo is gone for the Saints. Pick: Tampa Bay
Kansas City (+4.5) at Houston – This might be KC’s 2nd to last tough game of the year, with the other one being on the road in San Diego. The Texans need this game more., as the Chiefs have lots of cupcakes to look forward to down the line. Pick: Houston
Oakland (+6.5) at San Francisco – Do I even need to get into this one? This has to be the first time ever a 0-5 team has been favored by almost a touchdown. When the fans want David Carr, your season is sunk. Pick: Oakland
Dallas (+1) at Minnesota – The Desperation Bowl. Minnesota comes in on a short week thanks to the Monday game. Dallas comes in off a spanking at the hands of the Titans. Neither team has done anything inspiring to make me feel confident in either of them. But Tony Romo doesn’t have a media circus on him, doesn’t have questionable pictures of him floating around and didn’t take a football in the groin this week. Pick: Dallas
NY Jets (-3) at Denver – The Jets are looking more and more like a 12-4 team to me. Good defensive teams eat up one-dimensional offenses like Denver. If the Jets are for real, they take this game. I think they are. Pick: NY Jets
Indianapolis (-3) at Washington – The ‘Skins are a couple of weird bounces away from being 1-4. They play hard but the talent isn’t there. Without Joseph Addai, the Colts will struggle, but it’s Peyton Manning. In a night game. You don’t go against him. Pick: Indianapolis
Tennessee (-3) at Jacksonville – Two teams who make me change my opinion every week. But it’s Monday Night Football, and I think the stars come to play. Vince Young + Chris Johnson > David Garrard and Mo-Jo Drew. Pick: Tennessee
YTD: 40-36
The dogs are barking loud the last few weeks. They are 47-29 against the spread in 2010 and that rate is even higher the last few weeks. I made the mistake of thinking the correction week was coming last week, and a Brett Favre pick-6 was all that stood between me and double digit losses. The week where all the favorites win is on its way. It might be this week even. But for now, you at least have to ride some of the dogs.
Atlanta (+2.5) at Philadelphia – If I had to bet my life on one team to come out of the NFL, right now it’s the Falcons. That’s not saying a lot, as I still don’t think they’re a top 5 team in the whole league. I don’t trust Kevin Kolb yet. Philly is one of those teams that is beating up bad teams and losing against good teams. Atlanta is a good team. Pick: Atlanta
Cleveland (+14.5) at Pittsburgh – The Browns are not as terrible as some might think. They’re feeding Colt McCoy to the wolves, er Steelers, this week, but is he really any worse than Jake Delhomme or Seneca Wallace? Cleveland has only lost 1 game by double digits, that being by 10 to Atlanta thanks to a Delhomme pick-6 at the end of the game. There will be hype on this being Ben Roethlisberger’s first game back and there will be some rust. And let’s not forget about Cleveland’s new secret weapon, the Great White Hope, Peyton Hillis. Pick: Cleveland
Seattle (+6) at Chicago – Should Chicago really be laying 6 points to anyone? We know Seattle is terrible on the road. Jay Cutler has had 2 weeks to shake out the cobwebs the Giants gave him. I like Matt Forte to have a big game in this one. Pick: Chicago
Detroit (+10) at NY Giants – Possibly no Calvin Johnson in this one, meaning if the Giants can control Jahvid Best, they can tee off on Shaun Hill. I think the Giants rely on the Bradshaw-Jacobs combo to control the clock and win this one fairly easily, there's bound to be some letdown from the Lions. Pick: NY Giants.
Baltimore (+3) at New England – This line makes no sense, as Baltimore is looking to challenge for the title right now. New England is one-dimensional and the Ravens kill teams like this (like they did last week with Denver). But the Patriots have had 2 weeks to prepare for this one, and it’s a revenge game from last year’s playoffs. Plus, everyone and their dog are going to be on Baltimore here. Time for a hunch pick. Pick: New England
San Diego (-9) at St. Louis – The Rams looked terrible giving the Lions their greatest margin of victory in well, forever. Ok that’s not true but it sure felt like it. San Diego couldn’t beat Oakland on the road, and they’ve looked bad in every road game. This is an early start and West Coast teams usually don’t play well in these. Pick: St. Louis
Miami (+3.5) at Green Bay – Aaron Rodgers looks to be playing, but last week proved that the Packers can’t run the ball. Julius Jones and his pack a day habit won’t help that. Miami comes in off 2 tough division losses and a bye. Miami is 2-0 on the road and seems to play better away from home, but their special teams is terrible. Even so, I think their defense keeps this one close enough. Pick: Miami
New Orleans (-4) at Tampa Bay – Have we figured out yet that Tampa Bay isn’t that bad? And that New Orleans can’t run the ball? And that Josh Freeman can make plays? The Super Bowl mojo is gone for the Saints. Pick: Tampa Bay
Kansas City (+4.5) at Houston – This might be KC’s 2nd to last tough game of the year, with the other one being on the road in San Diego. The Texans need this game more., as the Chiefs have lots of cupcakes to look forward to down the line. Pick: Houston
Oakland (+6.5) at San Francisco – Do I even need to get into this one? This has to be the first time ever a 0-5 team has been favored by almost a touchdown. When the fans want David Carr, your season is sunk. Pick: Oakland
Dallas (+1) at Minnesota – The Desperation Bowl. Minnesota comes in on a short week thanks to the Monday game. Dallas comes in off a spanking at the hands of the Titans. Neither team has done anything inspiring to make me feel confident in either of them. But Tony Romo doesn’t have a media circus on him, doesn’t have questionable pictures of him floating around and didn’t take a football in the groin this week. Pick: Dallas
NY Jets (-3) at Denver – The Jets are looking more and more like a 12-4 team to me. Good defensive teams eat up one-dimensional offenses like Denver. If the Jets are for real, they take this game. I think they are. Pick: NY Jets
Indianapolis (-3) at Washington – The ‘Skins are a couple of weird bounces away from being 1-4. They play hard but the talent isn’t there. Without Joseph Addai, the Colts will struggle, but it’s Peyton Manning. In a night game. You don’t go against him. Pick: Indianapolis
Tennessee (-3) at Jacksonville – Two teams who make me change my opinion every week. But it’s Monday Night Football, and I think the stars come to play. Vince Young + Chris Johnson > David Garrard and Mo-Jo Drew. Pick: Tennessee
Wednesday, October 13, 2010
Week 6 Guess the Lines
Matt: LIVE from Osama's 2004 underground bunker... It's the week 6 lines w/ Matty K!!!!
Scott: And here I thought unemployment would mean you would have these things in quicker? I’m starting to wonder if next time I see you, you’ll look like this guy. So you went with the term bunker hey? I would have gone with lair, but hey, to each their own. Onto the picks!
SEA @ CHI. Matt: Cutler or no Cutler, this Chi-town D is looking like the one that took them to the ship four years ago. Seattle on the road again where i can't trust them. Bears by 8.
Scott: Mike Martz is turning Matt Forte into a Marshall Faulk clone. At least somebody in the NFC is playing above capabilities. Like you, I don’t trust Seattle anywhere, let alone the road. Bears by 6.5.
Actual line: Bears by 7. Point to Scott.
MIA @ GB. Matt: Packers are looking quite ordinary these days, and they just lost Finley for the season. Not sure what to make of the Dolphins now, but they seem to be stronger on the road, and the AFC rules this season. Vegas won't jump off the Pack just yet. Cheeseheads by -6.
Scott: I have to guess you’re assuming Aaron Rodgers is playing. I’m going on the fact he’s not with the new concussion rules. If Rodgers is in the game, I think it’s Packers by 4, but I’m standing by my original choice. Fish by 2.5.
Actual line: Wednesday afternoon and Vegas still has no line. No point awarded.
KC @ HOU. Matt: If you ask me, that last game was KC's for the taking, they just let the Colts hang around too long. Demoralizing for sure tho. On the other end, Vegas probably thinks H-town is still good, but they got handled at home to NY. Texans by -6.5.
Scott: I don’t know.. That KC offense is pretty terrible, especially if Dwayne Bowe can’t hang onto gimme touchdowns. Matt Cassel scares me. As for Houston, who knows what to make of them at this point? Houston by 4.
Actual line: Houston by 4.5. Point to Scott.
CLE @ PIT. Matt: The return of the rapi... I mean.... Big Ben. Browns possibly looking to the proto-deer-in-the-headlights Colt McCoy - meet the Steel Curtain. This one could get ugly. Pitt by -13.
Scott: Return of the rapidly improving Pittsburgh offense? You know cuz they had a bye week and all. I think that’s where you were going, right? I don’t know if Vegas goes high, or HIGH with this line. Pittsburgh by 10.
Actual line: Steelers by 14. Point to Matt.
NO @ TB. Matt: Total number of wins by the 3 teams the Saints have defeated = 1.... Here's word: J-Free and the Revolution are better. NO by -2.
Scott: 2 things. People don’t think Tampa is any good, and they still refer to the Saints as the champs. Saints by 3.5.
Actual line: Saints by 5. Point to Scott.
DET @ NYG. Matt: Lions finally on the board in a big way. Giants have been taking care of business the last 2 weeks. Two nice pass rushing teams again. Giants by -6.5.
Scott: I swear the Giants get more respect from the oddsmakers than even the Cowboys do. It won’t shock me if this is higher, but NYG by 7.5.
Actual line: Giants by 10. Point to Scott.
ATL @ PHI. Matt: Philly did the right thing by not putting the game in Kolb's hands. Still no controversy here. Falcons proved they could win on the road, even if only Cleveland. Much better test here. Philly by -1.
Scott: I have no clue where to go with this game. Atlanta is 4-1 but seems to get a break every game. Philly wins despite mediocre QB play from Kolb. On that note: Pick ‘em.
Actual line: Philly by 3. Point to Matt.
SD @ STL. Matt: Had the Rams won last week I would have chalked this one up as road game #4 in hostile territory, but now it's just another obscure inter-conference game on the docket. No one wants to believe that the Chargers stink. Sure miss that Electric Glide now! SD by -3.
Scott: The Rams look like the classic, young ‘get the job done at home, stink on the road’ team. San Diego by 3.
Actual line: Chargers by 8.5. No point awarded.
BAL @ NE. Matt: The Pats are trying to party like it's 2002. Ravens got the real juice right now. B-more by -2.5.
Scott: I agree with you, but people still think the Patriots are good, and they’re at home. By the way, you know something is up with Randy Moss when you’re willing to go from him to Deion Branch and your only upgrade is moving from a 4th to a 3rd round pick. Patriots by 1.5.
Actual line: New England by 3. Point to Scott.
OAK @ SF. Matt: The Bay-Area Bowl!! If I were to ask you which one of these 2 would be winless in week 6 and completely out of sorts, back before the season, wouldn't have picked the Raiders without question. I'm just 4 wins from winning my 6-win Oakland prop bet!! Here's #3... and the hurt keeps rolling for the 9ers. SF by -2.5.
Scott: Yeah, the 49ers baffle me, but at least I get to make Mike Singletary jokes for at least one more week. How many weeks after his eventual firing do they pull out the ‘retro’ Coors Light ad based on one of his rants? I put the over/under at 2.5. And this game, San Fran by 3.
Actual line: 49ers by SIX AND A HALF! Point to Scott… I need a break to lay everything I own on Oakland and the points.
And we’re back..
NYJ @ DEN. Matt: If the Sanchize gets any better, this team is straight scary. Like the Broncos as dogs in this one. Jets by -7.5.
Scott: The top 3 defenses in the AFC are the Ravens, Steelers and Jets, and you can argue about the order. But the top 3 QB’s from those teams are Roethlisberger, Flacco and Sanchez, in that order. Sanchez needs to be more than a game manager, he’ll need to win a game himself in the playoffs. Jets by 4.
Actual line: Jets by 3. Point to Scott.
DAL @ MIN. Matt: Had to know these teams would meet at the perfect time. Each in tailspin. Both expected to be better. Whoever loses, their season is done (at 1-4). Heavy public drama here. Neither did particularly bad last week, they just got beat by better teams. Vikes by -2.
Scott: I’m hoping for either a tie or lots of injuries in this one. Pretty even matchup so I went with the standard home team penalty. Vikings by 3.
Actual line: Vikings by 1. Point to Matt.
IND @ WAS. Matt: Very intriguing Sunday Nighter. Even though it's early, the Colts have covered every game vs teams outside their division. I think the Skins get more respect this week. Indy by -4.
Scott: Sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good, and the Redskins are proof of that this season. They’re a 1-4 team and it will come out sooner than later. Indy by 3.
Actual line: Indy by 3. Point to Scott.
TEN @ JAX. Matt: Oh baby! CJ and Vince taking their show on the road for Monday Night!! Do Jacksonvillians get ESPN?? Divisional game, could decide the division leader. pick'em.
Scott: Hey it’s Jacksonville, not Alaska! These teams come in with the same record but are light years different in terms of respect. I’m upset that one of these teams has to lose, as it means the Colts likely won’t be in last place after the weekend. Titans by 2.5.
Actual line: Tennessee by 3. Point to Scott.
Week score: 9-3 Scott
Year score: 2-2.
Scott: And here I thought unemployment would mean you would have these things in quicker? I’m starting to wonder if next time I see you, you’ll look like this guy. So you went with the term bunker hey? I would have gone with lair, but hey, to each their own. Onto the picks!
SEA @ CHI. Matt: Cutler or no Cutler, this Chi-town D is looking like the one that took them to the ship four years ago. Seattle on the road again where i can't trust them. Bears by 8.
Scott: Mike Martz is turning Matt Forte into a Marshall Faulk clone. At least somebody in the NFC is playing above capabilities. Like you, I don’t trust Seattle anywhere, let alone the road. Bears by 6.5.
Actual line: Bears by 7. Point to Scott.
MIA @ GB. Matt: Packers are looking quite ordinary these days, and they just lost Finley for the season. Not sure what to make of the Dolphins now, but they seem to be stronger on the road, and the AFC rules this season. Vegas won't jump off the Pack just yet. Cheeseheads by -6.
Scott: I have to guess you’re assuming Aaron Rodgers is playing. I’m going on the fact he’s not with the new concussion rules. If Rodgers is in the game, I think it’s Packers by 4, but I’m standing by my original choice. Fish by 2.5.
Actual line: Wednesday afternoon and Vegas still has no line. No point awarded.
KC @ HOU. Matt: If you ask me, that last game was KC's for the taking, they just let the Colts hang around too long. Demoralizing for sure tho. On the other end, Vegas probably thinks H-town is still good, but they got handled at home to NY. Texans by -6.5.
Scott: I don’t know.. That KC offense is pretty terrible, especially if Dwayne Bowe can’t hang onto gimme touchdowns. Matt Cassel scares me. As for Houston, who knows what to make of them at this point? Houston by 4.
Actual line: Houston by 4.5. Point to Scott.
CLE @ PIT. Matt: The return of the rapi... I mean.... Big Ben. Browns possibly looking to the proto-deer-in-the-headlights Colt McCoy - meet the Steel Curtain. This one could get ugly. Pitt by -13.
Scott: Return of the rapidly improving Pittsburgh offense? You know cuz they had a bye week and all. I think that’s where you were going, right? I don’t know if Vegas goes high, or HIGH with this line. Pittsburgh by 10.
Actual line: Steelers by 14. Point to Matt.
NO @ TB. Matt: Total number of wins by the 3 teams the Saints have defeated = 1.... Here's word: J-Free and the Revolution are better. NO by -2.
Scott: 2 things. People don’t think Tampa is any good, and they still refer to the Saints as the champs. Saints by 3.5.
Actual line: Saints by 5. Point to Scott.
DET @ NYG. Matt: Lions finally on the board in a big way. Giants have been taking care of business the last 2 weeks. Two nice pass rushing teams again. Giants by -6.5.
Scott: I swear the Giants get more respect from the oddsmakers than even the Cowboys do. It won’t shock me if this is higher, but NYG by 7.5.
Actual line: Giants by 10. Point to Scott.
ATL @ PHI. Matt: Philly did the right thing by not putting the game in Kolb's hands. Still no controversy here. Falcons proved they could win on the road, even if only Cleveland. Much better test here. Philly by -1.
Scott: I have no clue where to go with this game. Atlanta is 4-1 but seems to get a break every game. Philly wins despite mediocre QB play from Kolb. On that note: Pick ‘em.
Actual line: Philly by 3. Point to Matt.
SD @ STL. Matt: Had the Rams won last week I would have chalked this one up as road game #4 in hostile territory, but now it's just another obscure inter-conference game on the docket. No one wants to believe that the Chargers stink. Sure miss that Electric Glide now! SD by -3.
Scott: The Rams look like the classic, young ‘get the job done at home, stink on the road’ team. San Diego by 3.
Actual line: Chargers by 8.5. No point awarded.
BAL @ NE. Matt: The Pats are trying to party like it's 2002. Ravens got the real juice right now. B-more by -2.5.
Scott: I agree with you, but people still think the Patriots are good, and they’re at home. By the way, you know something is up with Randy Moss when you’re willing to go from him to Deion Branch and your only upgrade is moving from a 4th to a 3rd round pick. Patriots by 1.5.
Actual line: New England by 3. Point to Scott.
OAK @ SF. Matt: The Bay-Area Bowl!! If I were to ask you which one of these 2 would be winless in week 6 and completely out of sorts, back before the season, wouldn't have picked the Raiders without question. I'm just 4 wins from winning my 6-win Oakland prop bet!! Here's #3... and the hurt keeps rolling for the 9ers. SF by -2.5.
Scott: Yeah, the 49ers baffle me, but at least I get to make Mike Singletary jokes for at least one more week. How many weeks after his eventual firing do they pull out the ‘retro’ Coors Light ad based on one of his rants? I put the over/under at 2.5. And this game, San Fran by 3.
Actual line: 49ers by SIX AND A HALF! Point to Scott… I need a break to lay everything I own on Oakland and the points.
And we’re back..
NYJ @ DEN. Matt: If the Sanchize gets any better, this team is straight scary. Like the Broncos as dogs in this one. Jets by -7.5.
Scott: The top 3 defenses in the AFC are the Ravens, Steelers and Jets, and you can argue about the order. But the top 3 QB’s from those teams are Roethlisberger, Flacco and Sanchez, in that order. Sanchez needs to be more than a game manager, he’ll need to win a game himself in the playoffs. Jets by 4.
Actual line: Jets by 3. Point to Scott.
DAL @ MIN. Matt: Had to know these teams would meet at the perfect time. Each in tailspin. Both expected to be better. Whoever loses, their season is done (at 1-4). Heavy public drama here. Neither did particularly bad last week, they just got beat by better teams. Vikes by -2.
Scott: I’m hoping for either a tie or lots of injuries in this one. Pretty even matchup so I went with the standard home team penalty. Vikings by 3.
Actual line: Vikings by 1. Point to Matt.
IND @ WAS. Matt: Very intriguing Sunday Nighter. Even though it's early, the Colts have covered every game vs teams outside their division. I think the Skins get more respect this week. Indy by -4.
Scott: Sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good, and the Redskins are proof of that this season. They’re a 1-4 team and it will come out sooner than later. Indy by 3.
Actual line: Indy by 3. Point to Scott.
TEN @ JAX. Matt: Oh baby! CJ and Vince taking their show on the road for Monday Night!! Do Jacksonvillians get ESPN?? Divisional game, could decide the division leader. pick'em.
Scott: Hey it’s Jacksonville, not Alaska! These teams come in with the same record but are light years different in terms of respect. I’m upset that one of these teams has to lose, as it means the Colts likely won’t be in last place after the weekend. Titans by 2.5.
Actual line: Tennessee by 3. Point to Scott.
Week score: 9-3 Scott
Year score: 2-2.
Friday, October 8, 2010
Week 5 NFL picks
Last week: 8-6
Season record: 35-27
Jacksonville (+1) at Buffalo – The Bills are favored for seemingly the first time since Drew Bledsoe was their QB. Jacksonville will be the popular pick here as they just beat Indy at home and Buffalo stinks. But this screams to be one of those games where the Bills win. This is a perfect letdown game for Jacksonville, on the road after a big win. And Buffalo has to win at some point. They’re bad, but not 0-16 bad. Pick: Buffalo.
Kansas City (+7) at Indianapolis – I can’t figure out if Vegas is trying to bait everyone with getting 7 points for a 3-0 team, or trying to get everyone on a public team giving up only 7 points at home. Indy is banged up, and the Chiefs are coming off a bye week. But I went against Peyton Manning 2 weeks ago and lost big. I’m going to take my chances he’s going to take last week’s loss out on the Chiefs this week. Pick: Indianapolis
Tampa Bay (+6.5) at Cincinnati – Tampa is another team coming in off a bye week. I just refuse to believe Cincinnati is a good team. This falls mainly on Carson Palmer. The Bucs defense is still fdecent, even if Charlie Batch lit them up 2 weeks ago. For what its worth, the Bengals haven’t beaten the Bucs since 1989, though they’ve only played 5 times since then. Pick: Tampa Bay
Green Bay (-2.5) at Washington – The Redskins always seem to raise their games for the elite teams, but they just played an emotional game against Philadelphia. The Packers have their weaknesses, especially the lack of a running game (why they weren’t in on Marshawn Lynch is a mystery). But you have to put up 30 points to beat the Packers, unless they beat themselves with penalties like they did against the Bears. I can’t see Washington keeping up. Pick: Green Bay
St. Louis (+3) at Detroit – Both of these teams have been money against the spread, each going 3-1 and both of their losses were by 1 point ATS. The Rams come in winning their last 2 games, and this seems like a natural letdown spot, as Sam Bradford will have a tougher game on the road. But St. Louis’ defense is much better than that of the Lions. This should be a very close game, and when in doubt take the points. Pick: St. Louis
Denver (+7) at Baltimore – Denver comes in with the #1 ranked pass offense behind John Elway. What? Kyle Orton is their QB? And they still have the best passing offense? This shows why you shouldn’t really put much stock into stats after only 4 games. A team like Baltimore is just the sort of team to shake the sample size out of those stats. I don't see Denver having a 2nd consecutive good week on the road. Pick: Baltimore
NY Giants (+3) at Houston – The Giants looked like they were back last week with their 9 first half sacks of Jay Cutler. But many of those were the result of Cutler holding the ball way too long, and I don’t see Matt Schaub making the same mistake. Andre Johnson (ankle) and Brian Cushing (suspension) return for Houston, while Ahmad Bradshaw looks like will likely sit this one out. Pick: Houston.
Chicago (+1) at Carolina – Speaking of Jay Cutler, he sits this one out with a concussion. This is your requisite “COLLINS! CLAUSEN! It’s the NFL on FOX!!” joke for the week. I don’t know what to expect out of Todd Collins, but the Chicago defense should eat up Jimmy Clausen, who is completing less than 50% of his passes so far. The over/under is 33 on this one, and it might be too high. Pick: Chicago
Atlanta (-3) at Cleveland – Aside from a thrashing of Arizona, the Falcons haven’t looked very good but have done just enough to have a 3-1 record. The Browns may have found their secret weapon in… Peyton Hillis? The Browns play their games tough, and this line is just low enough to put it in the Whiskey Tango Foxtrot category, getting people to take the favorites laying only a field goal. Pick: Cleveland.
New Orleans (-6.5) at Arizona – Admittedly, the Saints haven’t looked very good yet, and are suffering some Super Bowl hangover. They have Christopher Ivory and Ladell Betts running the ball. And everyone is going to be on them this week. The Cardinals are trotting out Max Hall over Derek Anderson this week. But here’s the thing. The Cardinals have been outgained by 609 yards on offense the last 3 weeks. No matter how hard I try, I can’t find a decent reason to pick them. Pick: New Orleans
Tennessee (+7) at Dallas – This line seems to be begging people to take Tennessee. But at the same time, the Cowboys are always a little overvalued, so maybe its to be expected. Dallas is coming off their bye week. Vince Young returns to Texas. I’m torn. Normally I’d take the points, but the Titans have played badly 3 weeks in a row, even though the Giants handed them one of those games. Pick: Dallas
San Diego (-6) at Oakland – San Diego always dominates the Raiders, and it’s October so it’s time for the Chargers to turn it on. Philip Rivers is on pace for a little over 5,300 yards passing, and even though the Chargers have lost both their road games thus far, they’ve statistically dominated the other team and lost because of special teams. Pick: San Diego
Philadelphia (+3) at San Francisco – It’s definitely a downgrade from Michael Vick to Kevin Kolb, but this spread still seems weird considering the Niners are 0-4. The Niners have only played one game at home, and almost upset the Saints in that matchup. Kolb looked pretty terrible last week, even if he came with Jason Avant’s fingertips of pulling out an improbable victory. The Niners are too good not to win at some point. Pick: San Francisco
Minnesota (+3.5) at NY Jets – Let’s start out with a disclaimer: These are probably my 2 least favorite teams in the league. I also hate Dallas, but that’s because of idiot Dallas fans, not the Cowboys themselves. I can’t stand Rex Ryan, I can’t stand Brett Favre. The Vikings come in rested off a bye week. Darrelle Revis comes back. Santonio Holmes is back. Brett Favre has had some personal drama this week with his man-meat pics being released, and he returns to face the Jets in his first game since holding the Jets hostage for a season. Oh yeah, and some guy named Randy Moss got traded to the Vikings. So there are stories abound in this one. But this line smells funny to me as people love to bet on Favre and the Moss trade. So I’m laying the points on the hot team. Pick: NY Jets
Season record: 35-27
Jacksonville (+1) at Buffalo – The Bills are favored for seemingly the first time since Drew Bledsoe was their QB. Jacksonville will be the popular pick here as they just beat Indy at home and Buffalo stinks. But this screams to be one of those games where the Bills win. This is a perfect letdown game for Jacksonville, on the road after a big win. And Buffalo has to win at some point. They’re bad, but not 0-16 bad. Pick: Buffalo.
Kansas City (+7) at Indianapolis – I can’t figure out if Vegas is trying to bait everyone with getting 7 points for a 3-0 team, or trying to get everyone on a public team giving up only 7 points at home. Indy is banged up, and the Chiefs are coming off a bye week. But I went against Peyton Manning 2 weeks ago and lost big. I’m going to take my chances he’s going to take last week’s loss out on the Chiefs this week. Pick: Indianapolis
Tampa Bay (+6.5) at Cincinnati – Tampa is another team coming in off a bye week. I just refuse to believe Cincinnati is a good team. This falls mainly on Carson Palmer. The Bucs defense is still fdecent, even if Charlie Batch lit them up 2 weeks ago. For what its worth, the Bengals haven’t beaten the Bucs since 1989, though they’ve only played 5 times since then. Pick: Tampa Bay
Green Bay (-2.5) at Washington – The Redskins always seem to raise their games for the elite teams, but they just played an emotional game against Philadelphia. The Packers have their weaknesses, especially the lack of a running game (why they weren’t in on Marshawn Lynch is a mystery). But you have to put up 30 points to beat the Packers, unless they beat themselves with penalties like they did against the Bears. I can’t see Washington keeping up. Pick: Green Bay
St. Louis (+3) at Detroit – Both of these teams have been money against the spread, each going 3-1 and both of their losses were by 1 point ATS. The Rams come in winning their last 2 games, and this seems like a natural letdown spot, as Sam Bradford will have a tougher game on the road. But St. Louis’ defense is much better than that of the Lions. This should be a very close game, and when in doubt take the points. Pick: St. Louis
Denver (+7) at Baltimore – Denver comes in with the #1 ranked pass offense behind John Elway. What? Kyle Orton is their QB? And they still have the best passing offense? This shows why you shouldn’t really put much stock into stats after only 4 games. A team like Baltimore is just the sort of team to shake the sample size out of those stats. I don't see Denver having a 2nd consecutive good week on the road. Pick: Baltimore
NY Giants (+3) at Houston – The Giants looked like they were back last week with their 9 first half sacks of Jay Cutler. But many of those were the result of Cutler holding the ball way too long, and I don’t see Matt Schaub making the same mistake. Andre Johnson (ankle) and Brian Cushing (suspension) return for Houston, while Ahmad Bradshaw looks like will likely sit this one out. Pick: Houston.
Chicago (+1) at Carolina – Speaking of Jay Cutler, he sits this one out with a concussion. This is your requisite “COLLINS! CLAUSEN! It’s the NFL on FOX!!” joke for the week. I don’t know what to expect out of Todd Collins, but the Chicago defense should eat up Jimmy Clausen, who is completing less than 50% of his passes so far. The over/under is 33 on this one, and it might be too high. Pick: Chicago
Atlanta (-3) at Cleveland – Aside from a thrashing of Arizona, the Falcons haven’t looked very good but have done just enough to have a 3-1 record. The Browns may have found their secret weapon in… Peyton Hillis? The Browns play their games tough, and this line is just low enough to put it in the Whiskey Tango Foxtrot category, getting people to take the favorites laying only a field goal. Pick: Cleveland.
New Orleans (-6.5) at Arizona – Admittedly, the Saints haven’t looked very good yet, and are suffering some Super Bowl hangover. They have Christopher Ivory and Ladell Betts running the ball. And everyone is going to be on them this week. The Cardinals are trotting out Max Hall over Derek Anderson this week. But here’s the thing. The Cardinals have been outgained by 609 yards on offense the last 3 weeks. No matter how hard I try, I can’t find a decent reason to pick them. Pick: New Orleans
Tennessee (+7) at Dallas – This line seems to be begging people to take Tennessee. But at the same time, the Cowboys are always a little overvalued, so maybe its to be expected. Dallas is coming off their bye week. Vince Young returns to Texas. I’m torn. Normally I’d take the points, but the Titans have played badly 3 weeks in a row, even though the Giants handed them one of those games. Pick: Dallas
San Diego (-6) at Oakland – San Diego always dominates the Raiders, and it’s October so it’s time for the Chargers to turn it on. Philip Rivers is on pace for a little over 5,300 yards passing, and even though the Chargers have lost both their road games thus far, they’ve statistically dominated the other team and lost because of special teams. Pick: San Diego
Philadelphia (+3) at San Francisco – It’s definitely a downgrade from Michael Vick to Kevin Kolb, but this spread still seems weird considering the Niners are 0-4. The Niners have only played one game at home, and almost upset the Saints in that matchup. Kolb looked pretty terrible last week, even if he came with Jason Avant’s fingertips of pulling out an improbable victory. The Niners are too good not to win at some point. Pick: San Francisco
Minnesota (+3.5) at NY Jets – Let’s start out with a disclaimer: These are probably my 2 least favorite teams in the league. I also hate Dallas, but that’s because of idiot Dallas fans, not the Cowboys themselves. I can’t stand Rex Ryan, I can’t stand Brett Favre. The Vikings come in rested off a bye week. Darrelle Revis comes back. Santonio Holmes is back. Brett Favre has had some personal drama this week with his man-meat pics being released, and he returns to face the Jets in his first game since holding the Jets hostage for a season. Oh yeah, and some guy named Randy Moss got traded to the Vikings. So there are stories abound in this one. But this line smells funny to me as people love to bet on Favre and the Moss trade. So I’m laying the points on the hot team. Pick: NY Jets
Thursday, October 7, 2010
Review - Boardwalk Empire - Season 1, Episodes 1-3
Back in the early 2000's, HBO had a stranglehold on cable drama with such shows as Six Feet Under, Oz, The Wire, and of course, The Sopranos. Since those shows have ended, the network has struggled to find anything that clicks with audience other than maybe Entourage, which has been dragged out 3 years past its expiration date. They've tried with well-reviewed shows such as Treme, The Pacific and Big Love, but nothing resonated with people the way those earlier shows did. However, the network may have finally hit a home run with Boardwalk Empire, which according to the Wiki, garnered the most viewers for any HBO drama premiere since Deadwood back in 2004
The show focuses on Atlantic City at the start of the prohibition era in the 1920's. Steve Buscemi plays the lead character Enoch 'Nucky' Thompson, based on the real life Enoch Johnson. Thompson is the treasurer of Atlantic City, and all business runs through him. He gets a cut of everything. As prohibition begins, this opens up yet another area for Thompson to rule the city and fatten his wallet. The man lives like a king, not a civil servant. While Nucky rules the city with an iron fist, he has shown to still be pining for his wife, who lost her life at an early age. He has taken to a young mother, Margaret Schroeder, having her abusive husband killed after she was beaten to the point of miscarriage, and giving her money and arranging for a job while she recovers and struggles to raise her other two children. It will be interesting to see where the relationship between Nucky and Margaret goes and if it stays platonic, though Nucky's girlfriend/mistress is already jealous of the two.
There are two other main characters. The first is Jimmy Darmody, a young father who has just returned from World War I and is working as Nucky's lackey, having known Nucky his entire childhood. Desperate to prove his loyalty, Jimmy and a young Al Capone (real-life gangsters are featured prominently alongside fictional characters here) arrange for the theft of a wagon of liquor. The robbery is botched though, and 5 people are killed, though one is able to point out Jimmy's identity before he dies. This gets back to Nucky, who at the end of Episode 3 has Jimmy leave town, abandoning his family in the process. What Nucky doesn't know is that the FBI has made an offer to Jimmy to help rat him out, and it's almost a certainty that Jimmy will return to Atlantic City at some point. Whether he will be helping the feds or bringing opposition to Nucky (he has headed to Chicago, home of an up-and-coming Capone) remains to be seen.
The other main character is FBI agent Nelson Van Alden. He knows Thompson is dirty but getting anyone to speak on it and give him evidence is another matter. The people love Nucky, continually re-electing him. And Van Alden is always seemingly a step behind, as Thompson has plants everywhere. But Van Alden knows that Jimmy was involved in the murder/robbery, and knows (or in this case, thinks) that Thompson hired him to do it.
For all the great acting and intricate plot lines though, the real star of this show is the visuals. From the clothing to the decor, and culminating in the actual re-creation of the Atlantic City boardwalk, the visuals are stunning. This show was made for HD. The crew, led my the legendary Martin Scorcese, have nailed everything about the era, and no detail seems too small to be forgotten. While I worried about a longtime character actor like Buscemi being able to handle the lead, those worries are quickly forgotten. The rest of the acting is superb, and you can sense that the writers already have plans in place to make sure that all the plots are logical and yet not predictable. There's really not much more you can ask for out of a show. So far, HBO has hit a home run on this one.
Grade: A
The show focuses on Atlantic City at the start of the prohibition era in the 1920's. Steve Buscemi plays the lead character Enoch 'Nucky' Thompson, based on the real life Enoch Johnson. Thompson is the treasurer of Atlantic City, and all business runs through him. He gets a cut of everything. As prohibition begins, this opens up yet another area for Thompson to rule the city and fatten his wallet. The man lives like a king, not a civil servant. While Nucky rules the city with an iron fist, he has shown to still be pining for his wife, who lost her life at an early age. He has taken to a young mother, Margaret Schroeder, having her abusive husband killed after she was beaten to the point of miscarriage, and giving her money and arranging for a job while she recovers and struggles to raise her other two children. It will be interesting to see where the relationship between Nucky and Margaret goes and if it stays platonic, though Nucky's girlfriend/mistress is already jealous of the two.
There are two other main characters. The first is Jimmy Darmody, a young father who has just returned from World War I and is working as Nucky's lackey, having known Nucky his entire childhood. Desperate to prove his loyalty, Jimmy and a young Al Capone (real-life gangsters are featured prominently alongside fictional characters here) arrange for the theft of a wagon of liquor. The robbery is botched though, and 5 people are killed, though one is able to point out Jimmy's identity before he dies. This gets back to Nucky, who at the end of Episode 3 has Jimmy leave town, abandoning his family in the process. What Nucky doesn't know is that the FBI has made an offer to Jimmy to help rat him out, and it's almost a certainty that Jimmy will return to Atlantic City at some point. Whether he will be helping the feds or bringing opposition to Nucky (he has headed to Chicago, home of an up-and-coming Capone) remains to be seen.
The other main character is FBI agent Nelson Van Alden. He knows Thompson is dirty but getting anyone to speak on it and give him evidence is another matter. The people love Nucky, continually re-electing him. And Van Alden is always seemingly a step behind, as Thompson has plants everywhere. But Van Alden knows that Jimmy was involved in the murder/robbery, and knows (or in this case, thinks) that Thompson hired him to do it.
For all the great acting and intricate plot lines though, the real star of this show is the visuals. From the clothing to the decor, and culminating in the actual re-creation of the Atlantic City boardwalk, the visuals are stunning. This show was made for HD. The crew, led my the legendary Martin Scorcese, have nailed everything about the era, and no detail seems too small to be forgotten. While I worried about a longtime character actor like Buscemi being able to handle the lead, those worries are quickly forgotten. The rest of the acting is superb, and you can sense that the writers already have plans in place to make sure that all the plots are logical and yet not predictable. There's really not much more you can ask for out of a show. So far, HBO has hit a home run on this one.
Grade: A
Wednesday, October 6, 2010
Random mid-week thoughts
Some random thoughts for the middle of the week…
- Randy Moss to the Vikings: Great ball-sy move for both teams. New England knew they weren’t winning a Super Bowl with Moss this year and didn’t plan to pay him what he wanted. Might as well get some draft picks for him. Minnesota has a QB that is only around for one more year, might as well try and take one stab at a ring. New England now has 8 draft picks in the 2011 draft, including Oakland’s #1, which if I’m not mistaken, might just be near the #1 pick. I don’t really have much to add here that hasn’t been said by somebody. It’s nice to see a team realize they need to trade a guy too early though, rather than too late (cough Toronto Raptors cough)
- Speaking of Chris Bosh, Dwyane Wade makes it all of 4 minutes in his first pre-season game. And here’s why I say the Heat won’t win this year at least. Everything has to break perfect health-wise for the Big 3, and with Wade and Bosh that’s not always a given. The bench has holes all over the place (though I readily admit that the bench we see now won’t be nearly the one we see in May and June – every guy who gets cut during the season will look to Miami first). Not to mention their serious lack of outside shooting other than Mike Miller, who happens to play the same position as Wade and LeBron. For now, this is still the Lakers’ ‘ship to lose, as their path in the Western Conference is unchallenged barring a ridiculous, Jordan-esque leap forward from Kevin Durant.
- The baseball playoffs? Here’s a hint. For all these analysts trying to break down all the matchups and such, they are wasting their time. And yours. The baseball playoffs are a crapshoot, and don’t let anyone tell you different or give you any sportswriter hyperbole about how certain teams are ‘built for the playoffs’. The difference between a 90 win and a 95 win team is infinitesimally small. Each team comes in with a theoretical 12.5% chance of winning. Even though we know the teams aren’t even that way, even a ‘favorite’ like the Yankees will only win around 25% of the time. The team that gets hot wins, period. All that said, I’m hoping for the Giants or the Rangers to take it, but like most people, as long as the Yankees don’t win, we all win.
- Real World/Road Rules Challenge starts tonight on MTV. This is your 4th major sport, not hockey, and TV ratings will back that fact up. And steroids are not only legal, they’re encouraged!
- I saw ‘Get Him to the Greek’ on the weekend. It was funny through the first hour, but why does every movie think it’s HILARIOUS to have all the characters get high and then ridiculous things start happening? Once P. Diddy and the rock star’s dad started throwing everything at one another, this movie was straight downhill and I barely paid attention to the end. I didn’t even notice how much I dislike Russell Brand most of the way.
Boardwalk Empire review is on the way tonight.. If you're not watching this now, download the 3 episodes and catch up!
- Randy Moss to the Vikings: Great ball-sy move for both teams. New England knew they weren’t winning a Super Bowl with Moss this year and didn’t plan to pay him what he wanted. Might as well get some draft picks for him. Minnesota has a QB that is only around for one more year, might as well try and take one stab at a ring. New England now has 8 draft picks in the 2011 draft, including Oakland’s #1, which if I’m not mistaken, might just be near the #1 pick. I don’t really have much to add here that hasn’t been said by somebody. It’s nice to see a team realize they need to trade a guy too early though, rather than too late (cough Toronto Raptors cough)
- Speaking of Chris Bosh, Dwyane Wade makes it all of 4 minutes in his first pre-season game. And here’s why I say the Heat won’t win this year at least. Everything has to break perfect health-wise for the Big 3, and with Wade and Bosh that’s not always a given. The bench has holes all over the place (though I readily admit that the bench we see now won’t be nearly the one we see in May and June – every guy who gets cut during the season will look to Miami first). Not to mention their serious lack of outside shooting other than Mike Miller, who happens to play the same position as Wade and LeBron. For now, this is still the Lakers’ ‘ship to lose, as their path in the Western Conference is unchallenged barring a ridiculous, Jordan-esque leap forward from Kevin Durant.
- The baseball playoffs? Here’s a hint. For all these analysts trying to break down all the matchups and such, they are wasting their time. And yours. The baseball playoffs are a crapshoot, and don’t let anyone tell you different or give you any sportswriter hyperbole about how certain teams are ‘built for the playoffs’. The difference between a 90 win and a 95 win team is infinitesimally small. Each team comes in with a theoretical 12.5% chance of winning. Even though we know the teams aren’t even that way, even a ‘favorite’ like the Yankees will only win around 25% of the time. The team that gets hot wins, period. All that said, I’m hoping for the Giants or the Rangers to take it, but like most people, as long as the Yankees don’t win, we all win.
- Real World/Road Rules Challenge starts tonight on MTV. This is your 4th major sport, not hockey, and TV ratings will back that fact up. And steroids are not only legal, they’re encouraged!
- I saw ‘Get Him to the Greek’ on the weekend. It was funny through the first hour, but why does every movie think it’s HILARIOUS to have all the characters get high and then ridiculous things start happening? Once P. Diddy and the rock star’s dad started throwing everything at one another, this movie was straight downhill and I barely paid attention to the end. I didn’t even notice how much I dislike Russell Brand most of the way.
Boardwalk Empire review is on the way tonight.. If you're not watching this now, download the 3 episodes and catch up!
Tuesday, October 5, 2010
Dexter - Season 5, Episode 2 - "Hello, Bandit"
After last week's season premiere tied up the loose ends from last year's ending, this week we get into the business of moving on with Dexter's life. To keep the kids away from the murder scene, all 3 kids plus Dexter move, or shall I say condense themselves, into Deb's apartment. And thus begins the family life of Dexter Morgan, widowed father of 3.
Deb reacts as Deb does, since she needs her space. Things are too cramped for her, so she calls the only person she apparently has in her phone besides Dexter, that being Quinn. Quinn, of course, assumes Deb is finally down for Round 2, but Deb just wants a place to crash, and refuses to even acknowledge they slept together. Mind you, I'd probably want to forget dirty floor sex that took place at a murder scene too. By the end of the episode, she finally admits they did though, setting them up for the eventual relationship which will cause her to pick between Quinn and Dexter in their eventual showdown. Sorry, but lazy writing bugs me. This could have been done in a lot of different ways, and they've chosen the easy route here. Speaking of Quinn, he's gotten a hold of some sketches of 'Kyle Butler', the pseudonym that Dexter was using while getting close to The Trinity Killer, and it's only a matter of time before he realizes that Kyle Butler is Dexter.
Back at the station, Batista discovers that his new bride LaGuerta has a nice stash of money saved away that he knew nothing about. He quizzes various people around the office to see if anyone thinks it's wrong of her to hide this money. Deb sees right through his ploy of pretending the money is his though and calls him out. Finally, Batista confronts LaGuerta, who tells him that she said nothing of the money because of her husband's terrible spending habits. In defiance, Batista pays for drinks for the precinct that night, though only Masuka seems to make the trip with him. Batista ends up in an argument with a guy who says he's from Maria's past, and this leads to blows with Batista being pulled off the guy. Why do I get the feeling this story might shatter the record for shortest marriage involving a Latin person, previously held by Jennifer Lopez and her first husband Ojani Noa. Or maybe it was the one with second husband Cris Judd. Who knows, point is, J-Lo gets around.
So that leaves us to Dexter. We get to see a bit of both sides of Dexter in this episode, as he goes back into the killing business as his means of grieving. First, as he's looking to rent a moving van to move some of the belongings from the old house, he notices a blood stain in his van. Dexter takes this opportunity to tell Baby Harrison some children's stories that involve blood spatter patterns. Even though this clueless act has become so predictable, I still get a kick out of him doing things like this. Possibly because it reminds me of all the inappropriate things I say to my almost 2 year old when we're alone. Anyways, Dexter traces the blood spot back to a local roadkill cleanup driver (played by Shawn Hatosy, who I only know as the guy who kills the kid at the end of Alpha Dog and that he was in a Justin Timberlake video). He follows his new prey around and sure enough, discovers that the guy has locks of women's hair kept as trophies in his house and is throwing bodies into a lagoon. And so begins the back and forth as Dexter looks to hunt another victim down. I feel a bit bad for Hatosy as he's stuck in the unenviable position of replacing John Lithgow. Hopefully he can pull an Aaron Rodgers and not a Brian Griese.
On the home front, Dexter finally meets with the FBI. Turns out he's not a suspect to them, they only want to figure out why Arthur Mitchell would want to kill Rita. So while he's got the feds off his tail, his stepdaughter Astor has decided she hates Dexter, and wants to move with her grandparents in Orlando. Cody wants to stay with Dexter, but as Dexter explains, like him and Deb, brothers and sisters are a team and can't be broken up. But it's okay to pull the team away from their baby brother? So off the children go to Orlando, which is probably for the best, at least for us viewers, because it gives Dexter more time to find people to Saran Wrap to tables, and really that's what we want to see, not bad family drama. There's still the Harrison issue, but that's what babysitters are for, right? To pay to watch your children while you commit felonies? Knowing Dexter though, he might just bring Harrison to a murder. Don't rule this one out.
Final verdict: I didn't have strong expectations coming into this one, just because I knew it would be a transition episode. It's necessary, but it's meant to get you excited for future weeks, not blow you away this week. It did its job and now we'll see if the rest of the season can pay off. Grade: C
Deb reacts as Deb does, since she needs her space. Things are too cramped for her, so she calls the only person she apparently has in her phone besides Dexter, that being Quinn. Quinn, of course, assumes Deb is finally down for Round 2, but Deb just wants a place to crash, and refuses to even acknowledge they slept together. Mind you, I'd probably want to forget dirty floor sex that took place at a murder scene too. By the end of the episode, she finally admits they did though, setting them up for the eventual relationship which will cause her to pick between Quinn and Dexter in their eventual showdown. Sorry, but lazy writing bugs me. This could have been done in a lot of different ways, and they've chosen the easy route here. Speaking of Quinn, he's gotten a hold of some sketches of 'Kyle Butler', the pseudonym that Dexter was using while getting close to The Trinity Killer, and it's only a matter of time before he realizes that Kyle Butler is Dexter.
Back at the station, Batista discovers that his new bride LaGuerta has a nice stash of money saved away that he knew nothing about. He quizzes various people around the office to see if anyone thinks it's wrong of her to hide this money. Deb sees right through his ploy of pretending the money is his though and calls him out. Finally, Batista confronts LaGuerta, who tells him that she said nothing of the money because of her husband's terrible spending habits. In defiance, Batista pays for drinks for the precinct that night, though only Masuka seems to make the trip with him. Batista ends up in an argument with a guy who says he's from Maria's past, and this leads to blows with Batista being pulled off the guy. Why do I get the feeling this story might shatter the record for shortest marriage involving a Latin person, previously held by Jennifer Lopez and her first husband Ojani Noa. Or maybe it was the one with second husband Cris Judd. Who knows, point is, J-Lo gets around.
So that leaves us to Dexter. We get to see a bit of both sides of Dexter in this episode, as he goes back into the killing business as his means of grieving. First, as he's looking to rent a moving van to move some of the belongings from the old house, he notices a blood stain in his van. Dexter takes this opportunity to tell Baby Harrison some children's stories that involve blood spatter patterns. Even though this clueless act has become so predictable, I still get a kick out of him doing things like this. Possibly because it reminds me of all the inappropriate things I say to my almost 2 year old when we're alone. Anyways, Dexter traces the blood spot back to a local roadkill cleanup driver (played by Shawn Hatosy, who I only know as the guy who kills the kid at the end of Alpha Dog and that he was in a Justin Timberlake video). He follows his new prey around and sure enough, discovers that the guy has locks of women's hair kept as trophies in his house and is throwing bodies into a lagoon. And so begins the back and forth as Dexter looks to hunt another victim down. I feel a bit bad for Hatosy as he's stuck in the unenviable position of replacing John Lithgow. Hopefully he can pull an Aaron Rodgers and not a Brian Griese.
On the home front, Dexter finally meets with the FBI. Turns out he's not a suspect to them, they only want to figure out why Arthur Mitchell would want to kill Rita. So while he's got the feds off his tail, his stepdaughter Astor has decided she hates Dexter, and wants to move with her grandparents in Orlando. Cody wants to stay with Dexter, but as Dexter explains, like him and Deb, brothers and sisters are a team and can't be broken up. But it's okay to pull the team away from their baby brother? So off the children go to Orlando, which is probably for the best, at least for us viewers, because it gives Dexter more time to find people to Saran Wrap to tables, and really that's what we want to see, not bad family drama. There's still the Harrison issue, but that's what babysitters are for, right? To pay to watch your children while you commit felonies? Knowing Dexter though, he might just bring Harrison to a murder. Don't rule this one out.
Final verdict: I didn't have strong expectations coming into this one, just because I knew it would be a transition episode. It's necessary, but it's meant to get you excited for future weeks, not blow you away this week. It did its job and now we'll see if the rest of the season can pay off. Grade: C
Week 5 - Guess the lines with Matty K
Matt: First quarter-of-the-season picks rundown: win (11-5), loss (6-10), loss (7-9), loss (5-8, MNF pending). I’ve somehow managed to blow the traditionally easiest weeks of the schedule.
We’ve been carrying a loss with our bets, and my Oakland prop bet is knocking on death’s door (I need Oakland to win 6 games this season… they’re 1-3… and have been able to tease me to the effect of they could have been 3-1… The greatest trick Jason Campbell ever pulled, was convincing some people he could ball… damn)
Time to dust myself off and carry on… I’m 2-up in our guess the lines game… WE CAN BUILD ON THIS!!!
Scott: On the contrary, I’ve been slowly getting better, though Miami's special teams gave me an 8-6 week instead of a much nicer 9-5. I think I had a lot of teams pegged poorly coming into the season (your best chance to make money before the lines adjust), but I’ve been pretty good at reading the smelly lines in Weeks 3 and 4. We’re learning that parity is in full effect this year, and this week’s lines prove it. I’m guessing only one double digit spread, and even that might be a stretch.
JAX @ BUF. Matt: Jacksonville coming off of a big win at home versus Indy, Buffalo has been just bad bad bad. I don’t think anyone is convinced the Jags are any good, but they’ll get some respect at 2-2, and facing an inferior opponent. This game has Gus written all over it, I’m warming up the popcorn. Jags by -4.
Scott: I haven’t figured out the head-to-head games yet, but is Indy technically LAST in this division? Yeah, I don’t know what to make of Jacksonville, and I don’t think anyone else does either. This seems like one of those games Buffalo could get for one of their token wins. Jags by 2.5
Actual line: Jags by 1.5 on our official source, though this line has been everywhere between Jags by 2.5 to Buffalo by 1 from what I’ve seen. Point to Scott.
DEN @ BAL. Matt: Both teams coming off of big, late-game wins, on the road. Baltimore is clearly the better team, but they still haven’t killed anybody yet. Tennessee beat themselves last week, so I don’t give the Broncos too much credit. Ravens by -6.
Scott: Denver’s passing game might be for real. If this can somehow lead to Brandon Lloyd’s rap career taking off, then that’s the greatest accomplishment Kyle Orton will have ever made. I also took Baltimore by 6.
Actual line: Ravens by 7. No point awarded.
KC @ IND. Matt: The last undefeated team versus a .500 squad who are 0-2 w/in their division. What were the odds against that statement favouring the Chiefs a month ago? Maybe…+7500? Higher? Aside from those two divisional games, the Colts have trounced their opponents (Giants and Broncos), and realistically it should be no different here. This KC team has got some mojo working for them, and will have had 2 full weeks of rest and energy build-up. Had this game been in KC, I would have loved them as a dog. Colts by -7.5.
Scott: I’m worried what mojo the Chiefs had was destroyed by the bye week. I think their only hope here is if this is your Gus Johnson game, and he announces the upset as only Gus can. Colts by 7.
Actual line: Colts by 8. Point to Matt.
GB @ WAS. Matt: So the Skins are leading their division (by way of a 2-0 divisional record). This is definitely getting the A-squad from Fox Sports (Aik n the Buck) – which would translate to the D-squad if they were on CBS. I’m not really speaking too much about the matchup because I have no idea where this line will fall. Packers by -2.
Scott: I’d love to see what Joe Buck would do if he were assigned to a Carolina-Arizona matchup, because I think he’d put the Mel Gibson audio tapes to shame. I’m pretty sure he has it in his contract he can only go to like 5 cities. I'd say Troy Aikman would do the same, but sometimes I think he's still suffering from the after-effects of that last concussion that knocked him out of the league. I might need a speech pathologist to determine if its the Southern drawl or if he's slurring his words. Oh yeah, the game. Does anyone really buy that the Skins are any good when they’re not in some sort of rivalry game? Packers by 3.5.
Actual line: Packers by 2.5. Point to Matt.
STL @ DET. Matt: Gotta feel for the Lions.. even with Shaun effing Hill under center, they look like they have a potent offence, and their defense is maturing with each game. And then here comes last year’s scum team, on a 2-game win streak, and beaming with confidence. Even the easy games don’t seem so easy, not when you’re 0-4. The Rams have not won on the road yet (but are 4-0 ATS, the only such team), and Detroit should give them a battle. Lions by -2.5.
Scott: I’m officially hopping on the Rams bandwagon to win the NFC West. Unless Mike Singletary does something off the charts crazy, in which case I might go with San Francisco again. And frankly, that’s not an out of the realm possibility, and something we should all hope for. All I know is that Singletary is possibly messing it up for Ray Lewis to be a head coach one day, and that's a real shame. Lions by 2.5.
Actual line: Lions by 3. No point awarded.
CHI @ CAR. Matt: Bears got a reality check on Sunday Night, but it was probably more their O-line getting victimized by a rejuvenated NY pass rush. Rest assured, the Panthers can’t bring that kind of heat. They’ll have to rely on the run game, and it is not easy to run on the Bears. However in one game, the Bears lost some swagger with Cutler going down – now they have a kid named Hanie running the offence, until further notice. Chi-town by -5.
Scott: I’m going to assume that they can exhume Todd Collins’ body from the Meadowlands turf (if not for the new stadium, I could make the requisite Jimmy Hoffa joke here) and get him out there Sunday, but Cutler doesn’t make it with the new concussion rules. Bears by 4.
Actual line: Bears by 1.5. Point to Scott.
TB @ CIN. Matt: I can say with the utmost sincerity, J-Free and the Funky Pirates are the more entertaining team in this matchup. Who’d a thunk the Browns would be the team to snap Cincy’s divisional dominance?? Tampa coming off the bye, and their first loss, to the Steelers, should still have confidence going forward, but won’t get much respect. Inter-conference will also keep this low. Bengals by -3.5.
Scott: I’m just happy that Carson Palmer and T.O. had a huge game at the same time, but yet it takes place in a loss to the lowly Browns. Everyone thinks they’re good again. They’re not. Bengals by 4.
Actual line: Bengals by 6.5. Point to Scott.
ATL @ CLE. Matt: I don’t know what to take from that 9ers/Falcons game… ATL should bounce back, and Vegas should chalk that Browns win up to divisional competitiveness, and that alone. I do think “John Secada” Wallace is the right choice for the Brown’s moving forward, but they’ll still struggle against good teams like the Falcons. ATL by -8.
Scott: I’m starting to worry that the Falcons like to play down to their competition. I’ve got this a lot lower because of that fact, and the Browns have been tough at home. Atlanta by 4.
Actual line: Atlanta by 3. Point to Scott.
NYG @ HOU. Matt: H-town is finding ways to win, and the Giants seem to have their pass-rush groove back. Eli is still not fixed however. Houston should roll them at home. Texans by -4.5.
Scott: Two teams with great pass rushes here. The Giants always get too much respect though. Texans by 3.
Actual line: Texans by 3. Point to Scott.
NO @ ARI. Matt: Just last year, we were expecting 35+ from each of these teams every Sunday. This season has been far from prolific, to say the least. New Orleans D is keeping them in games. Saints by -3.5.
Scott: It’s sad when you have guys like Derek Anderson and Bruce Gradkowski starting in the NFL when perfectly good players like Kurt Warner are too busy dancing on reality shows. Yeah, this was a good game last year. But the Cardinals are terrible, I don’t care if they have 2 wins. New Orleans by 10.5.
Actual line: Saints by 7. No point awarded, as we both blew this one equally.
TEN @ DAL. Matt: They don’t get much tougher than the loss the Titans took vs the Broncos. However, definitely not enough to derail the offence, you have to think that CJ is absolutely teeming right now, and Vince has emerged the rock of that team. I think Vegas is seeing these teams as equals right now. ‘Boys by -2.5.
Scott: You don’t want to hear this, but I think Chris Johnson might be either injured or done. He’s just not the same this year, and with his workload last season and body frame, it’s totally conceivable that he has an off-year. I'm guessing injured though because of his age. Dallas by 3.5.
Actual line: Dallas by 6.5. Point to Scott.
SD @ OAK. Matt: Week 1, MNF, last year, the Chargers went into Oakland and almost lost, Oakland easily covered a big line. I still think Jason Campbell gives this team the best chance to win. SD hasn’t won away from home yet. SD by -9.5.
Scott: I couldn’t decide which side of the fence they’d put this game on in Vegas. It will be either 4 points or 6 points. I’m going to take San Diego’s road record into account and go Chargers by 4.
Actual line: Chargers by 6. Point to Scott.
Sunday Night Football. PHI @ SF. Matt: I don’t think a primetime showcase is what either of these teams think is the answer right now. San Fran is perplexing teams like Tennessee did last year, starting out 0-6. The 9ers covered in their week 2 primetime game versus the Saints. Stability is key for the Eagles, they need a healthy Mike Vick out there Sunday night, and given the situation, I think they’ll do everything possible to make sure he is. They know this is a road game, they need to have. Eagles by -1.
Scott: I’m going to assume that Vick is playing in this one for now. San Fran seems to get up for the big games, but hasn’t found a way to win yet. I’m going Philly by 3 and I don’t think anyone knows where to put this line with Vick’s status up in the air.
Actual line: 49ers by 3, as Vick appears to be sitting this one out from all reports. Point to Matt.
Monday Night Football. Matt: MIN @ NYJ. Is this Brett’s first return to NY? The Jet’s only loss was by 1 point. This team is just winning games and proving the talking heads correct for the time being. First venture outside their conference. Vikes benefitted most from the bye week. I don’t have the stats handy, but you know what #4 does on Monday Nights, it’s well documented. I think this game could be good. Jets by -4.
Scott: A game between 2 of the teams Brett Favre has held hostage at some point. People love to bet on Favre. And the Jets don’t get the same NY love that the Giants get in the lines. Jets by 2.5.
Actual line: Jets by 4. Point to Matt.
Final week score: 7-4 Scott.
Season score: 2-1 Matt.
We’ve been carrying a loss with our bets, and my Oakland prop bet is knocking on death’s door (I need Oakland to win 6 games this season… they’re 1-3… and have been able to tease me to the effect of they could have been 3-1… The greatest trick Jason Campbell ever pulled, was convincing some people he could ball… damn)
Time to dust myself off and carry on… I’m 2-up in our guess the lines game… WE CAN BUILD ON THIS!!!
Scott: On the contrary, I’ve been slowly getting better, though Miami's special teams gave me an 8-6 week instead of a much nicer 9-5. I think I had a lot of teams pegged poorly coming into the season (your best chance to make money before the lines adjust), but I’ve been pretty good at reading the smelly lines in Weeks 3 and 4. We’re learning that parity is in full effect this year, and this week’s lines prove it. I’m guessing only one double digit spread, and even that might be a stretch.
JAX @ BUF. Matt: Jacksonville coming off of a big win at home versus Indy, Buffalo has been just bad bad bad. I don’t think anyone is convinced the Jags are any good, but they’ll get some respect at 2-2, and facing an inferior opponent. This game has Gus written all over it, I’m warming up the popcorn. Jags by -4.
Scott: I haven’t figured out the head-to-head games yet, but is Indy technically LAST in this division? Yeah, I don’t know what to make of Jacksonville, and I don’t think anyone else does either. This seems like one of those games Buffalo could get for one of their token wins. Jags by 2.5
Actual line: Jags by 1.5 on our official source, though this line has been everywhere between Jags by 2.5 to Buffalo by 1 from what I’ve seen. Point to Scott.
DEN @ BAL. Matt: Both teams coming off of big, late-game wins, on the road. Baltimore is clearly the better team, but they still haven’t killed anybody yet. Tennessee beat themselves last week, so I don’t give the Broncos too much credit. Ravens by -6.
Scott: Denver’s passing game might be for real. If this can somehow lead to Brandon Lloyd’s rap career taking off, then that’s the greatest accomplishment Kyle Orton will have ever made. I also took Baltimore by 6.
Actual line: Ravens by 7. No point awarded.
KC @ IND. Matt: The last undefeated team versus a .500 squad who are 0-2 w/in their division. What were the odds against that statement favouring the Chiefs a month ago? Maybe…+7500? Higher? Aside from those two divisional games, the Colts have trounced their opponents (Giants and Broncos), and realistically it should be no different here. This KC team has got some mojo working for them, and will have had 2 full weeks of rest and energy build-up. Had this game been in KC, I would have loved them as a dog. Colts by -7.5.
Scott: I’m worried what mojo the Chiefs had was destroyed by the bye week. I think their only hope here is if this is your Gus Johnson game, and he announces the upset as only Gus can. Colts by 7.
Actual line: Colts by 8. Point to Matt.
GB @ WAS. Matt: So the Skins are leading their division (by way of a 2-0 divisional record). This is definitely getting the A-squad from Fox Sports (Aik n the Buck) – which would translate to the D-squad if they were on CBS. I’m not really speaking too much about the matchup because I have no idea where this line will fall. Packers by -2.
Scott: I’d love to see what Joe Buck would do if he were assigned to a Carolina-Arizona matchup, because I think he’d put the Mel Gibson audio tapes to shame. I’m pretty sure he has it in his contract he can only go to like 5 cities. I'd say Troy Aikman would do the same, but sometimes I think he's still suffering from the after-effects of that last concussion that knocked him out of the league. I might need a speech pathologist to determine if its the Southern drawl or if he's slurring his words. Oh yeah, the game. Does anyone really buy that the Skins are any good when they’re not in some sort of rivalry game? Packers by 3.5.
Actual line: Packers by 2.5. Point to Matt.
STL @ DET. Matt: Gotta feel for the Lions.. even with Shaun effing Hill under center, they look like they have a potent offence, and their defense is maturing with each game. And then here comes last year’s scum team, on a 2-game win streak, and beaming with confidence. Even the easy games don’t seem so easy, not when you’re 0-4. The Rams have not won on the road yet (but are 4-0 ATS, the only such team), and Detroit should give them a battle. Lions by -2.5.
Scott: I’m officially hopping on the Rams bandwagon to win the NFC West. Unless Mike Singletary does something off the charts crazy, in which case I might go with San Francisco again. And frankly, that’s not an out of the realm possibility, and something we should all hope for. All I know is that Singletary is possibly messing it up for Ray Lewis to be a head coach one day, and that's a real shame. Lions by 2.5.
Actual line: Lions by 3. No point awarded.
CHI @ CAR. Matt: Bears got a reality check on Sunday Night, but it was probably more their O-line getting victimized by a rejuvenated NY pass rush. Rest assured, the Panthers can’t bring that kind of heat. They’ll have to rely on the run game, and it is not easy to run on the Bears. However in one game, the Bears lost some swagger with Cutler going down – now they have a kid named Hanie running the offence, until further notice. Chi-town by -5.
Scott: I’m going to assume that they can exhume Todd Collins’ body from the Meadowlands turf (if not for the new stadium, I could make the requisite Jimmy Hoffa joke here) and get him out there Sunday, but Cutler doesn’t make it with the new concussion rules. Bears by 4.
Actual line: Bears by 1.5. Point to Scott.
TB @ CIN. Matt: I can say with the utmost sincerity, J-Free and the Funky Pirates are the more entertaining team in this matchup. Who’d a thunk the Browns would be the team to snap Cincy’s divisional dominance?? Tampa coming off the bye, and their first loss, to the Steelers, should still have confidence going forward, but won’t get much respect. Inter-conference will also keep this low. Bengals by -3.5.
Scott: I’m just happy that Carson Palmer and T.O. had a huge game at the same time, but yet it takes place in a loss to the lowly Browns. Everyone thinks they’re good again. They’re not. Bengals by 4.
Actual line: Bengals by 6.5. Point to Scott.
ATL @ CLE. Matt: I don’t know what to take from that 9ers/Falcons game… ATL should bounce back, and Vegas should chalk that Browns win up to divisional competitiveness, and that alone. I do think “John Secada” Wallace is the right choice for the Brown’s moving forward, but they’ll still struggle against good teams like the Falcons. ATL by -8.
Scott: I’m starting to worry that the Falcons like to play down to their competition. I’ve got this a lot lower because of that fact, and the Browns have been tough at home. Atlanta by 4.
Actual line: Atlanta by 3. Point to Scott.
NYG @ HOU. Matt: H-town is finding ways to win, and the Giants seem to have their pass-rush groove back. Eli is still not fixed however. Houston should roll them at home. Texans by -4.5.
Scott: Two teams with great pass rushes here. The Giants always get too much respect though. Texans by 3.
Actual line: Texans by 3. Point to Scott.
NO @ ARI. Matt: Just last year, we were expecting 35+ from each of these teams every Sunday. This season has been far from prolific, to say the least. New Orleans D is keeping them in games. Saints by -3.5.
Scott: It’s sad when you have guys like Derek Anderson and Bruce Gradkowski starting in the NFL when perfectly good players like Kurt Warner are too busy dancing on reality shows. Yeah, this was a good game last year. But the Cardinals are terrible, I don’t care if they have 2 wins. New Orleans by 10.5.
Actual line: Saints by 7. No point awarded, as we both blew this one equally.
TEN @ DAL. Matt: They don’t get much tougher than the loss the Titans took vs the Broncos. However, definitely not enough to derail the offence, you have to think that CJ is absolutely teeming right now, and Vince has emerged the rock of that team. I think Vegas is seeing these teams as equals right now. ‘Boys by -2.5.
Scott: You don’t want to hear this, but I think Chris Johnson might be either injured or done. He’s just not the same this year, and with his workload last season and body frame, it’s totally conceivable that he has an off-year. I'm guessing injured though because of his age. Dallas by 3.5.
Actual line: Dallas by 6.5. Point to Scott.
SD @ OAK. Matt: Week 1, MNF, last year, the Chargers went into Oakland and almost lost, Oakland easily covered a big line. I still think Jason Campbell gives this team the best chance to win. SD hasn’t won away from home yet. SD by -9.5.
Scott: I couldn’t decide which side of the fence they’d put this game on in Vegas. It will be either 4 points or 6 points. I’m going to take San Diego’s road record into account and go Chargers by 4.
Actual line: Chargers by 6. Point to Scott.
Sunday Night Football. PHI @ SF. Matt: I don’t think a primetime showcase is what either of these teams think is the answer right now. San Fran is perplexing teams like Tennessee did last year, starting out 0-6. The 9ers covered in their week 2 primetime game versus the Saints. Stability is key for the Eagles, they need a healthy Mike Vick out there Sunday night, and given the situation, I think they’ll do everything possible to make sure he is. They know this is a road game, they need to have. Eagles by -1.
Scott: I’m going to assume that Vick is playing in this one for now. San Fran seems to get up for the big games, but hasn’t found a way to win yet. I’m going Philly by 3 and I don’t think anyone knows where to put this line with Vick’s status up in the air.
Actual line: 49ers by 3, as Vick appears to be sitting this one out from all reports. Point to Matt.
Monday Night Football. Matt: MIN @ NYJ. Is this Brett’s first return to NY? The Jet’s only loss was by 1 point. This team is just winning games and proving the talking heads correct for the time being. First venture outside their conference. Vikes benefitted most from the bye week. I don’t have the stats handy, but you know what #4 does on Monday Nights, it’s well documented. I think this game could be good. Jets by -4.
Scott: A game between 2 of the teams Brett Favre has held hostage at some point. People love to bet on Favre. And the Jets don’t get the same NY love that the Giants get in the lines. Jets by 2.5.
Actual line: Jets by 4. Point to Matt.
Final week score: 7-4 Scott.
Season score: 2-1 Matt.
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